As Andrew, Bruce, Marc, Ish and others have correctly argued, last week’s Economic Statement wastes money that could otherwise have financed vital public programs. Two tables in the Statement are critical to this case. Table 2.2 (page 45) estimates the costs of newly-announced tax cuts. Table 3.1 (page 73) estimates the costs of all tax cuts adopted since the Conservatives came to power. The […]
Read moreMy take on this morning’s Labour Force Survey follows: Goods-Producing Industries Cut Jobs Canada’s beleaguered manufacturing sector lost a further 3,500 jobs in October. Employment also fell by 1,900 in natural resources, 1,900 in agriculture, and 700 in construction. Saskatchewan Bucks the Western Trend Although more part-time jobs increased total employment, western Canada lost full-time jobs in October. Specifically, British […]
Read moreToday’s Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours doesn’t seem to support the rosy view that our labour market is turning out better jobs and higher wages. Of the 285,000 payroll jobs created over the past year (August 06 to August 07, seasonally adjusted), almost half (46% or 130,000) were in the two lowest-paid broad industrial sectors, retail trade (85,000 net […]
Read moreAlthough I generally disagree with Andrew Coyne’s take on economic issues, I enjoy his commentary because it is almost always articulate and well-informed. Last Saturday’s column, which may be his second-last at the National Post before moving to Maclean’s, was a glaring exception. In particular, it contradicted Coyne’s own previous contentions. When the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador took an equity […]
Read moreThe Globe and Mail’s mini-budget coverage was such that, even after Marc’s thoughtful and thorough critique, a couple of important criticisms remain to be made. It identified Bruce Campbell as “executive director of the left-wing Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives” (page A5). In addition to several economists from banks and finance companies, it quoted representatives of the C. D. Howe Institute, […]
Read moreI spoke to a senior Department of Finance official who tells me that the $6.1 Billion annual revenue loss number for 2012-13 when the rate moves to 15% is calculated relative to the already announced reduction in the rate to 18.5% in 2011-12, NOT relative to the current rate of 22%. To my mind this means that the “real” annual […]
Read moreIt’s not often that you can detect even a nuance of difference between Finance and the Bank on key economic issues, but do I detect a hint of greater alarm on the part of the former over the recent super-rapid appreciation of the Canadian Dollar? In yesterday’s Economic Statement (Chapter 1, p.19) “If the Canadian dollar were to remain close […]
Read moreThe Economic Statement announced a cut in the federal corporate income tax rate from 21% today (22.1% including the corporate surtax, which is being phased out), to 19.5% in 2008, to just 15% by 2012-13. The new 15% rate is well below the already announced reduction to 18.5% by 2011-12. The revenue cost in 2012-13 when the rate cut is […]
Read moreThe surprise Economic and Fiscal Update delivered today demonstrates how politically clever the Harper government is, and at the same time, how out of touch they are. At a time when there are major challenges facing the country, this update, as predicted, squanders the opportunity. Tax cuts will not build any affordable housing, they will not reduce poverty, they will […]
Read moreThe significance of this Economic Statement is political in much more than the narrow partisan sense of the word. It does set up the Conservatives nicely for an election (to the extent that the GST and Personal Income Tax cuts timed to be felt in 2008 resonate with the public.) More importantly, it implements a right-wing agenda in a fashion […]
Read moreAs reported in yesterday’s Globe ROB p.1, Merill Lynch CEO Stan O’Neal seems set to be the fall guy for his firm losing Billions on asset-backed securities. That sounds like bad news for him. But news of his pending departure drove up Merrill shares, giving Mr O’Neal a paper gain of $16 Million on his stock and option holdings of […]
Read moreEconomists tend to be remarkably circumspect about racial discrimination in employment, and Statistics Canada is similarly loath to attribute differences in employment and earnings to racial status in other than the most nuanced way. Yet the evidence increasingly shows that racial discrimination is a matter of empirical fact in Canada, and not just a matter of perception on the part […]
Read moreA recent debate on strategic voting between Erin Weir and Matthew Bergbusch prompts me to wonder the extent to which liberals are more progressive than conservatives in the federal political arena. I think we can mostly agree that on social issues, such as gay or women’s rights, the liberals do stand on the left of the conservatives. And this is […]
Read moreA group of BC-based academic economists have joined together to call for a carbon tax in a letter to BC Finance Minister Carole Taylor. BC is taking suggestions towards a climate change action budget this February. I’m not holding my breath that a carbon tax is likely; from what I’m hearing out of Victoria this stage of the game is […]
Read moreNotwithstanding the usual doom and gloom from the oil industry and its cheerleaders, Premier Stelmach’s decision to increase oil and gas royalties by $1.4 billion in 2009 is an unduly timid move in the right direction. The provincial NDP leader summed it up as follows: “The premier has compromised yet again a report that represented a compromise in the first […]
Read moreCBC recently reported that Conrad Black was acquitted on most of the charges against him because a lone juror dug up critical evidence that his own lawyers did not present. This revelation seems to support Mark Steyn’s criticism of these lawyers.
Read moreYesterday, the C. D. Howe Institute released a Backgrounder supporting TILMA by Kathleen Macmillan and Patrick Grady. They make the most sensible case for the deal that I have read, but give short shrift to its pitfalls. They previously co-authored papers on internal trade and labour mobility for a federal conference that I attended. Days after this conference, Grady largely […]
Read moreIt seems that, having failed to lure any other provinces into TILMA, the Premiers of Alberta and BC have turned their attention northward. Whereas the understanding was that Saskatchewan would need to sign the agreement before trying to negotiate any changes or exemptions, territorial officials have apparently been invited to begin such discussions without having to make an initial commitment. […]
Read moreThanks to Pierre Habbard of TUAC for this Quote: “His memoir also confirms Mr. Greenspan’s strong support for free markets and his deep antipathy to regulation. But I don’t see how you can have it both ways. If you are a complete believer in the proposition that free markets are self-regulating and self- correcting, then you logically should let markets […]
Read moreGeorge Monbiot’s book about climate change, Heat, recommends a scheme of global emission reductions based on the principle of equity. That is, every person on the planet should have an equal right to emit a certain amount of CO2 per year, with some long-term total emissions cap that keeps the planet from getting too hot. I have seen a number […]
Read morehttp://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/download/elm/elm07-4.pdf  A useful reference; a methodologically sophisticated attack on the core neo liberal belief that labour market regulation undermines efficiency. Why labour market regulation may pay off: Worker motivation, co-ordination and productivity growth by Servaas Storm & C.W.M. Naastepad ILO Economic and Labour Market Paper 2007/4 Abstract The impact of labour market regulation on labour productivity growth is ambiguous: on […]
Read moreThree weeks ago, I wrote, “Budget 2007 used the federal spending power quite aggressively to pay provincial governments to eliminate their Corporate Capital Taxes. A similar use of the power will be needed if the Conservatives are serious about harmonizing provincial sales taxes with the GST.” The front page of Friday’s National Post reported, “The Conservatives will encourage the five […]
Read moreGreed, gouging and bad citizenship KEN GEORGETTI Special to Globe and Mail Update October 17, 2007 at 11:34 PM EDT What have Canadians gained from our loonie’s parity with the U.S. greenback? A more valuable currency should make the things we buy from other countries cheaper. But, over the past five years, as the value of the Canadian dollar has […]
Read morePerhaps the strangest thing about my reunion was coming to grips with my own status as an Old Boy, albeit disconnected from the Old Boys network. Those connections were quite apparent during the reunion but the clique-iness I remember from my school days was not really present at all – as Old Boys at a reunion we were cast in […]
Read moreThe October issue of Policy Options from IRPP is devoted to free trade at 20 – now that we are 20 years on from the signing of the FTA with the US.  http://www.irpp.org/po/index.htm With one modest exception, the articles are all written by pro free traders – including key architects of the deal like Derek Burney, Stanley Hartt, Charles McMillan, […]
Read moreA recent StatsCan research paper by Marc Frenette and Simon Coulombe “Has Higher Education Among Young Women Substantially Reduced the Gender Gap in Employment and Earnings?” (Analytical Research Paper Series. June, 2007) contains some rather startling data. http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/11F0019MIE/11F0019MIE2007301.htm The paper looks at employment and earnings for young men and women aged 25 to 29, in each of 1981, 1991, and […]
Read moreWith core inflation running at 2.2%, the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged today – despite the soaring Canadian dollar and its impacts on the struggling manufacturing sector, despite a slowing US economy, and despite tight credit market conditions. I think the Bank should have matched the recent half percentage point US rate cut to take the froth out […]
Read moreI took the bus to Association Day, Upper Canada College’s annual “open house”, where the school teems with students, parents, Old Boys like me, and an striking number of blond teenage girls. Heading up Avenue Road, the clock tower looms up the hill (officially it is the Rogers clock tower, a donation from long ago by the Rogers family that […]
Read moreCanadian Press reports that tomorrow’s throne speech will include more tax cuts and some effort to eliminate supposed inter-provincial barriers. Since the Liberals agree with the Conservatives on both issues, they should not have much trouble letting the throne speech pass. More tax cuts, fewer trade barriers to come in throne speech: Finance Minister TORONTO – Canadians can expect to […]
Read moreSince becoming Liberal leader, Dion has consistently made noises about cutting corporate taxes. On Friday, he clearly and specifically committed to slash corporate taxes “deeper than the Conservatives.†A Liberal strategist quoted in the Financial Post indicated that the plan is to outflank the Conservatives on the right regarding tax policy. Also on Friday, the NDP’s new finance critic, Thomas […]
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