A recent StatsCan research paper by Marc Frenette and Simon Coulombe “Has Higher Education Among Young Women Substantially Reduced the Gender Gap in Employment and Earnings?” (Analytical Research Paper Series. June, 2007) contains some rather startling data. http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/11F0019MIE/11F0019MIE2007301.htm The paper looks at employment and earnings for young men and women aged 25 to 29, in each of 1981, 1991, and […]
Read moreWith core inflation running at 2.2%, the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged today – despite the soaring Canadian dollar and its impacts on the struggling manufacturing sector, despite a slowing US economy, and despite tight credit market conditions. I think the Bank should have matched the recent half percentage point US rate cut to take the froth out […]
Read moreI took the bus to Association Day, Upper Canada College’s annual “open house”, where the school teems with students, parents, Old Boys like me, and an striking number of blond teenage girls. Heading up Avenue Road, the clock tower looms up the hill (officially it is the Rogers clock tower, a donation from long ago by the Rogers family that […]
Read moreCanadian Press reports that tomorrow’s throne speech will include more tax cuts and some effort to eliminate supposed inter-provincial barriers. Since the Liberals agree with the Conservatives on both issues, they should not have much trouble letting the throne speech pass. More tax cuts, fewer trade barriers to come in throne speech: Finance Minister TORONTO – Canadians can expect to […]
Read moreSince becoming Liberal leader, Dion has consistently made noises about cutting corporate taxes. On Friday, he clearly and specifically committed to slash corporate taxes “deeper than the Conservatives.†A Liberal strategist quoted in the Financial Post indicated that the plan is to outflank the Conservatives on the right regarding tax policy. Also on Friday, the NDP’s new finance critic, Thomas […]
Read moreI voted in favour of MMP (multi member proportionality) in the Ontario election yesterday, against some misgivings – notably the low threshold to gain representation – because of the clear gains – a better translation of electorate sentiment into seats, and an incentive to democratic participation. (Living in McGuinty’s seat, I voted even though I knew my NDP vote was […]
Read moreYesterday’s Ontario election was pretty crummy. Almost the entire campaign was dominated by a contrived issue. Turnout hit an all-time low, with barely more than half of eligible voters bothering to cast ballots. Despite a smaller percentage of the popular vote than in the last election, the McGuinty Liberals cruised to a huge majority. The more progressive NDP gained popular […]
Read moreTomorrow I jet to Toronto for my 20th anniversary high school reunion. Like any such reunion, it will be interesting to see just how far the hairlines have receded and bellies expanded. But I cannot help feeling that my reunion will be different. See, I went to Upper Canada College, our country’s most elite private school. I was an outsider […]
Read moreStatsCan reported last Friday that, based on data from the Labour Force Survey, hourly wages were up by 4.2% September, 2006 to September, 2007, the biggest monthly increase since the Survey began collecting wage data in 2007. With inflation running at 1.7%, it’s no wonder that news of a real wage increase of 2.5% in the context of a national […]
Read moreDuring the provincial campaign, Dalton McGuinty seems to have changed his tune on TILMA. This change is somewhat reminiscent of the Saskatchewan Party’s “road to Damascus” conversion on the issue. Six months ago, McGuinty praised TILMA and mused about joining it. A couple of weeks ago, he wrote the following in response to a questionnaire from the Ontario Public Service […]
Read moreAs the provincial referendum on adopting Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) nears, figuring out strange scenarios in which this voting system might not work well seems to have become Ontario’s favourite indoor sport. All of this hypothesizing appears to be losing sight of the fact that MMP is clearly better (or less bad) than the existing first-past-the-post system. The referendum is […]
Read moreMy take on Statistics Canada’s release follows: The Dollar Hits Parity During the reference period for this Labour Force Survey, September 15 through 22, the Canadian dollar reached parity with the American dollar. Today’s release does not capture the consequences that have begun to play out since then. A rapidly-rising exchange rate has increased the price of Canadian-made products in […]
Read moreHere’s a Freudian slip worthy of the internet age. Go to the home page for the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade: http://www.dfait.gc.ca/index.aspx To find their section dealing with free trade negotiations, you go to the menu on the left, under a category titled “Services for Business.” We certainly couldn’t list free trade negotiations as constituting a “Service for […]
Read moreThe United Steelworkers have put out the following press release: Research confirms value of manufacturing to Canada’s economy TORONTO, Oct. 4 /CNW/ – An interim report on manufacturing prepared by Ottawa-based econometrics firm Informetrica shows that manufacturing plays an important role in supporting all sectors of the economy, and has been hurt by both the recent appreciation of the dollar […]
Read moreThe Government of Saskatchewan announced increases to the minimum wage today as a step forward to providing a living wage that will assist working families and young people participate in our prosperous economy. The increase will take place in three stages that will see the minimum wage move to $8.25 per hour on January 1, 2008, to $8.60 on May […]
Read moreUnder current rules, the EI premium rate is supposed to be set at the precise level anticipated by the Chief Actuary to match program revenues with program expenses. (The accumulated surplus of more than $50 Billion run up under the Liberals as a result of deep benefit cuts and slow premium reductions sits in a sort of accounting limbo in […]
Read moreThe business pages are covering this rather arcane issue more and more intensively. The Canadian market for so-called non bank asset backed commercial paper or ABCP has more or less frozen up, leaving some $40 Billion in stranded assets. Much of this seems to be held by large pension funds and other large institutions, with the Quebec Caisse exposed in […]
Read moreThomas Palley, formerly of the AFL-CIO, just posted a very good piece on “The New Economics of Trade” that clearly connects the dots between several themes frequently discussed on this blog.
Read moreThere have been suggestions that the Conservative government’s forthcoming Throne Speech will surrender the federal spending power. Through an op-ed in today’s Globe and Mail, Bob Rae tries to position himself, and presumably the Liberal Party, as defenders of the power. This posturing will help the Conservatives woo Quebec nationalists and help the Liberals appeal to Canadians who believe in […]
Read moreLeading Canadian economist Richard Lipsey (with co author Swedenboorg) has written quite an interesting paper for the NBER, “Explaining Product Price Differences Across Countries.” http://www.nber.org/papers/w13239 The abstract reads as follows: “A substantial part of international differences in prices of individual products, both goods and services, can be explained by differences in per capita income, wage compression, or low wage dispersion […]
Read moreAs usual, the federal surplus has come in far larger than forecast: $14 billion for 2006/07. As legislated through the Tax Back Guarantee, all of the interest savings from this debt repayment will finance personal income tax cuts. Therefore, the 2006/07 surplus will reduce income taxes by $0.7 billion annually. This tax cut will barely put a dent in federal income […]
Read moreCanadian Policy Research Networks have put out what looks like an interesting study. Their blurb follows. The study is at http://www.cprn.org/doc.cfm?doc=1757&l=en Alberta is Canada’s hottest economy. Many Canadians are moving to Alberta drawn by its insatiable demand for skilled workers and professionals. Workers in Low-Income Households in Alberta, prepared for the Alberta Ministry of Employment, Immigration and Industry by […]
Read moreI and David Green from UBC have commented on this topic before. A key question is why we have a program to bring in temporary workers at the prevailing wage, rather than let rising real wages signal job opportuntities and appropriate adjustments in the job market. Bringing in so-called unskilled temporary workers is of concern if such a program works […]
Read morehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2177006,00.html An interesting column – roots of the crisis are seen to lie in the continual injections of financial liquidity required to keep growth going in a global economy with a serious underlying deflationary bias, the result of excess capacity in manufacturing. “Merely cutting the cost of borrowing will do little to remedy the long-term weaknesses of the advanced economies” […]
Read moreSeptember 25, 2007 – The NEB decision: 17 jobs in hand and 18,000 in the bush Wed, 09/26/2007 – 09:40 — Fred Wilson (Full post can be found at http://blogs.cep.ca/en/node/53 Readers of this column have by now seen the reports of the National Energy Board decision to approve the Keystone pipeline. CEP has received extensive media coverage of its […]
Read moreYesterday, the Premier of Alberta addressed the Empire Club in Toronto. He said some encouraging things about Our Fair Share: “We will get a fair economic rent on the development of our resources. In fact we have recently received the recommendations of the Royalty Review Panel that I established as one of my first acts as Premier.” I am not […]
Read moreToday, Statistics Canada released a very interesting study on the economic demand that is driving greenhouse-gas emissions. Between 1990 and 2002, exports outstripped Canadians’ personal expenditure as the leading source of Canada’s industrial emissions. Indeed, exports accounted for essentially all of the increase in these emissions. Canadian Industrial Emissions (in megatons) Final-Demand Category 1990 2002 Exports 176.4 264.4 Personal Expenditure […]
Read moreI spent the morning at Industry Canada’s global supply chains conference. The general tenor of the opening plenaries was as expected – Canadian corporations should slice and dice their supply chains asap to take advantage of lower costs (especially labour costs) in relation to productivity and quality if they are to survive. In a phrase, ‘make Chinese low wages work […]
Read moreIn the online edition of today’s Toronto Star, Arthur Donner and Doug Peters have joined the labour movement and the National Bank in calling for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates.
Read moreAn interesting memo just cropped up from Costa Rica in the midst of the debate about the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), one of the latest installements in the string of plans to free trade and capital flows in the Americas. This memo came from the YES campaign and advocated interesting strategies, such as fostering fear: Beyond what can […]
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