The Progressive Economics Forum

Scott Sinclair on the Canada – South Korea Trade Agreement

December 3, 2007 Andrew Jackson 2 comments

Scott Sinclair, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives Opening Statement, Re Proposed Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement Standing Committee on International Trade. Thursday, November 29, 2007 Thank you for the invitation to appear today and for the opportunity to raise some serious concerns about the proposed Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement and Canadaâ€™s current approach to bilateral trade agreements. In the time allotted, […]

TILMA, Ontario and Quebec: The Price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance

December 2, 2007 Erin Weir Leave a comment

A significant challenge in the TILMA debate has been that journalists often uncritically accept the premise that alleged inter-provincial barriers are a serious problem. Murray Campbell bucked this trend in Saturdayâ€™s Globe and Mail, where he drew the link between TILMA and last weekâ€™s Ontario-Quebec initiative. Electronically, his column appears under the headline “Premiers try to fix something that isnâ€™t […]

Re-Regulating Finance

November 29, 2007 Andrew Jackson One comment

So argues top Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf in a piece that will warm Jim Stanford’s heart: “What seems increasingly clear is that the combination of generous government guarantees with rampant profit-making in inadequately capitalised institutions is an accident waiting to happen â€“ again and again and again. Either the banking industry should be treated as a utility, with regulated […]

Whither the US Trade Balance?

November 29, 2007 Andrew Jackson Leave a comment

TD Economics have released an interesting study on changes in US trade flows as a source of continung strength and offset to their considerbale domestic difficulties. Exports are up, fuelled by the US dollar depreciation and strong global demand. However, exporters to the US, mainly Asian, are holding onto their share of the US market by eating the change in […]

The Howe on Interest Rate Cuts

November 29, 2007 Andrew Jackson One comment

I note that 4 of the 9 economistsÂ on the CD Howe’s rather grandiosly titled Monetary Policy Council are supporting a rate cutÂ by the real folks at the Bank of Canada next week, and two of them (including Ed Carmichael from JP Morgan Chase) even call for a half point cut. Â http://www.cdhowe.org/display.cfm?page=monetaryReleases The bare majority calling for an unchanged […]

More Comments on John Richards, “Tough Love” and Poverty

November 29, 2007 Andrew Jackson 2 comments

John Myles (University of Toronto) points out that his research on the decline of poverty among lone mothers, cited by Richards, shows that â€œsoft loveâ€ (day care in Quebec) probably has the biggest â€œsocial policy effect.â€ He notes thatÂ â€œtough loveâ€ does â€œworkâ€Â in the following sense. Cut other cash benefits to the bone and employment levels among lone mothers […]

We May Look Rich, But We Aren’t Rich

November 29, 2007 Jim Stanford 3 comments

Statistics Canada released an interesting but utterly misleading technical paper last week on Canada’s supposed “Reversal of Fortune.”Â They examined Canada-U.S. comparisons in national income (a concept that is subtly but importantly different from GDP, as I’ll explain in a minute), and decided that Canada has become the star economic performer of the continent.Â Since 2002, our real national per […]

John Richards on “Tough Love” and Poverty

November 28, 2007 Andrew Jackson 2 comments

I was a friend of John Richards many years back, in the late 70s, when we shared a common passion for prairie left populism. He’s a bright guy, and a great writer. What bugs me is that he is still treated as a progressive by the media – based on his very brief history as an NDP Saskatchewan MLA in […]

US Recession Watch, or Larry Gets Gloomy

November 28, 2007 Andrew Jackson Leave a comment

Wake up to the dangers of a deepening crisis By Lawrence Summers Published: November 25 2007 18:51 | Last updated: November 25 2007 18:51 (From Financial Times) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b56079a8-9b71-11dc-8aad-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 Three months ago it was reasonable to expect that the subprime credit crisis would be a financially significant event but not one that would threaten the overall pattern of economic growth. This […]

The Ontario-Quebec Deal: TILMA 2.0 ?

November 26, 2007 Erin Weir 2 comments

Today, Premiers McGuinty and Charest kicked off “free trade” negotiations between their provinces. The key question is whether this process will be a sweeping “race to the bottom” like the BC-Alberta Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement (TILMA) or a focused effort to develop common standards in the few areas where problems may exist. As usual, the rhetoric about “inter-provincial […]

Declining Pension Coverage and Rising Inequality

November 26, 2007 Andrew Jackson Leave a comment

There’s quite an interesting piece on pension coverage in today’s Daily from StatCan. http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/75-001-XIE/2007111/articles/10405high-en.htmÂ The study suggests that some of the statistical series showing sharply declining pension coverage are rather suspect, and they provide a series from tax data showing the proportion of taxfilers with a positive pension adjustment. This is a larger number than contributors to registered pension plans, […]

Is Canada Facing Acute Skill Shortages?

November 26, 2007 Andrew Jackson Leave a comment

Given the rapid expansion of the temporary foreign worker program and the frequent complaints of employers that workers are hard to find, one might expect that Government of Canada research would support the view that there are, and will continue to be, pervasive skill shortages. Yet this is not the case. The most recent ten year outlook for the Canadian […]

The Australian Election: A Hollow Victory?

November 24, 2007 Erin Weir 4 comments

Although my knowledge of Australiaâ€™s politics is limited, they always interest me. Not only is the country similar to Canada in many ways, but it also had among the most successful labour movements and Labor Parties in the English-speaking world. (The party changed its name from “Labour” to “Labor” in 1912, when it seemed that Australia would adopt American spelling.) […]

The Economist on Temporary Foreign Workers

November 22, 2007 Erin Weir One comment

Todayâ€™s edition of The Economist magazine includes a good article on temporary foreign workers in Canada. It extensively quotes Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour. The present regime allows employers to import workers from abroad without seriously demonstrating the unavailability of Canadian workers for the job. Once the foreign workers are in Canada, it is easy for […]

Canada’s Un-Development and the Loonie

November 22, 2007 Jim Stanford 3 comments

The Commons Finance Committee, spurred by my old debating opponent John McCallum, is holding hearings in the next two weeks on the economic and fiscal consequences of the loonie’s unsustainable flight. (I kind of miss crossing swords with John, actually: In the good old days he was the evil but friendly Bay Street banker, justifying federal spending cuts — and […]

Economic Apocalypse Soon?

November 22, 2007 Andrew Jackson 9 comments

Nouriel Roubini – professor at NYU and noted blogger on the global economy – tends to the gloomy but is now seriously worried about whereÂ we are headed. With the Economist now out with a front page story on the likelihood of a serious US recession, his views seem to be entering the mainstream. http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini With the Recession […]

Saskatchewanâ€™s Incredible Shrinking Government

November 21, 2007 Erin Weir 3 comments

During the sixteen years that the NDP governed Saskatchewan, provincial expenditures fell from just over 30% to just over 20% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This accomplishment is dubious for a political party committed to using government as a vehicle to redistribute wealth and finance important public programs. Why did the proportion of Saskatchewanâ€™s economy available for these purposes decline […]

Itâ€™s Time to Cut Interest Rates

November 20, 2007 Erin Weir 3 comments

Todayâ€™s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release reveals that inflation has dipped to 2.4% and core inflation has fallen to 1.8%, its lowest level since June 2006. These figures undermine the argument that interest rates should be maintained to slow inflation. As the National Post reports, “A weaker-than-expected rise in the inflation rate for October could give the Bank of Canada […]

Worst Diane Francis Column Ever

November 17, 2007 Erin Weir Leave a comment

Diane Francis has written many unsubstantiated columns. On July 6, for example, she claimed that “Canada has the highest corporate taxes in the world.” However, based on the following quotes, Tuesdayâ€™s column probably takes the cake. If last week’s election upset is any indication, Saskatchewan is going to be on a roll for a few years. I have no idea […]

Crowding Out Bill Robson

November 17, 2007 Erin Weir 2 comments

Tuesdayâ€™s Financial Post featured an op-ed by William Robson, President and CEO of the C. D. Howe Institute, arguing that “The expansion of the public sector in an economy with no slack is squeezing the private sector, driving up interest rates and the dollar in the short run, and threatening Canadian prosperity in the long run.” Todayâ€™s Financial Post includes […]

Caledon on Dion’s Anti Poverty Plan

November 15, 2007 Andrew Jackson Leave a comment

Here’s a really useful commentary from the Caledon Institute on the substance of the Liberal poverty reduction plan, especially emphasising its timidity in terms of reversing the ill thought- out Conservative changes to child benefits.Â They share my view that we need a better poverty target. Â http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/659ENG%2Epdf

Mr. Dion’s Anti- Poverty Plan

November 15, 2007 Andrew Jackson 7 comments

I’m a big fan of setting clear and attainable targets and timetables to eliminate poverty, and applaud last week’s Liberal Party commitment to reduce the number of those living in poverty by 30% and the numbers of children living in poverty by 50% within 5 years. http://www.liberal.ca/story_13293_e.aspx Clear targets and timetables have recently been called for by the National Council […]

Canadaâ€™s Energy Exports: The Fine Print

November 9, 2007 Erin Weir Leave a comment

The relative importance of oil in Canadaâ€™s exports bears on the debate about oil prices and the exchange rate. A challenge is that the most widely-cited figures often lump oil and natural gas together. I compiled the following table from the merchandise-trade figures that Statistics Canada updated through September today: Canadaâ€™s Energy Trade, 2007 year-to-date ($ millions) Â Exports % […]

The Bank of Canada and the Soaring Canadian Dollar

November 8, 2007 Andrew Jackson 6 comments

The unprecedented surge in the Canadian dollar from 85 cents US in early 2007 to as high as $1.10 in early November is deeply disturbing in terms of its implications for the health of the economy and the job market. Very rapid exchange rate appreciation is bad news for most enterprises exporting abroad, or competing with US and Asian exporters […]

Saskatchewan Election Results: Assessing the Damage (Updated Again)

November 8, 2007 Erin Weir 4 comments

The Saskatchewan Party won 37 seats with 51% of the popular vote and the NDP won 21 seats with 37% of the vote. Obviously, the Saskatchewan Partyâ€™s victory is bad news for progressives. The provincewide figures mask significant regional variations. Outside of the main cities, the Saskatchewan Party won 27 seats with 62% of the rural vote. Two of the […]

Adam Smith and progressive taxation

November 8, 2007 Marc Lee 3 comments

Some of the knee-jerk commentary in response to my paper has been about what an ideal, or fair, tax system should really look like. These people question progressive taxation. To them, I quote Adam Smith from The Wealth of Nations (from Wikipedia): The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, […]

Tax incidence in Canada, 1990-2005

November 8, 2007 Marc Lee 4 comments

The CCPA today released my paper, Eroding Tax Fairness: Tax Incidence in Canada, 1990-2005. The Toronto Star ran a front-page story on it that is quite good. This paper was a long time in the making â€“ while it might seem fairly straightforward to calculate the share of taxes in income for different groups, there are many tricky data and […]

Inter-provincial Barriers: Whereâ€™s the Beef?

November 7, 2007 Erin Weir Leave a comment

In yesterdayâ€™s Ontario Farmer, the federal Minister of Agriculture, Gerry Ritz, railed against “tremendous inter-provincial trade barriers.” His example was restrictions on moving beef between provinces. My understanding is that, to the extent such restrictions exist, they arise from federal regulations rather than from provincial policy. Ritz claimed, “I have no problems with Quebec beef coming into Ontario as long […]

Fining Strikebreakers (Updated)

November 6, 2007 Erin Weir 2 comments

In an op-ed printed today, John Mortimer of LabourWatch applauds an Ontario courtâ€™s decision not to enforce the Public Service Alliance of Canadaâ€™s fines against members who crossed picket lines. One wonders how his inane rhetoric about “human rights” slipped past the Financial Postâ€™s editors. To an economist, this issue is a classic “free rider problem.” Collectively, the workers benefit […]

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