Stephen Harper’s 1991 master’s thesis used census data to make his case about “political business cycles” and he even noted how disruptive changes in methodology could be for long-term analysis in understanding how Canadian political behaviour changed over time. He ran a model to show the links between variables such as unemployment and changes in government. The unemployment data is […]
Read moreNine days ago, I posted about private non-financial corporations accumulating cash rather than investing in Canada. A week later, the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR) noted “the relatively high level of liquidity held by the non-financial corporate sector and weak investment†(page 19). By my count, the document expresses concern eight separate times about anemic business investment. It acknowledges […]
Read moreThe Macdonald-Laurier Institute, which has been leading the charge against mostly unidentified “inter-provincial trade barriers,†is now posting complaints about the “intrusive†census long form. Are different-sized cream containers in various provinces and having to spend 20 minutes filling out a form once every couple of decades really the worst problems facing libertarians in Canada? If so, it seems that […]
Read moreOver at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Robert Knox has tried to rebut my rebuttal of his C. D. Howe Institute paper. (I am still waiting for a rebuttal of my rebuttal of his more recent Macdonald-Laurier Institute paper.) Knox’s post sheds light on how his side of the debate sees the issue. But I begin with the least illuminating lines: Mr. […]
Read moreA highly regarded economist and business consultant sent me a link to his view of the significance and consequence of the Government’s decision to axe the census long-form questionnaire. Elegantly concise and to the point, it reads like a cheat sheet for an exam on why Census long-form information is important, from the on-the-ground business and public service delivery POV. […]
Read moreThe resignation of Chief Statistician Munir Sheik has far-reaching political consequences, and may be the game-changer in this ongoing census saga. But it is the extreme conclusion of a far more serious and consequential development – the politicization of the public service. Read Alex Himelfarb on the topic, a former Clerk of the Privy Council (Canada’s top public servant) and […]
Read moreA great piece of political analysis by Paul Saurette of Ottawa UÂ – from the Mark http://www.themarknews.com/articles/1907-when-smart-parties-make-stupid-decisions?page=1
Read moreBetween May and June, consumer prices decreased in both absolute and seasonally-adjusted terms. As a result, the annual inflation rate fell to 1.0%, about half what it had been at the start of this year. One province, Manitoba, actually slipped into deflation. The Bank of Canada’s core rate edged down to 1.7%. Monetary Policy Inflation’s continuing decline begs the question […]
Read moreThere aren’t many stories like this one. You have to go back half a century, to Diefenbaker and Coyne, to find a parallel. Then too, a Prime Minister increasingly viewed as overly controlling insisted on an unworkable policy until the Governor of the Bank of Canada had no choice but to step down, in an attempt to preserve both his […]
Read moreWith summer comes a lightening of my work load, so I’ve finally found some time to dive into a few interesting books. These are all related to my ongoing research interests (I do have some fiction sitting around waiting for a real holiday, with Barbara Kingsolver’s The Lacuna at the top of the pile): The Story of Stuff by Annie […]
Read moreFor the first time in eight months, the number of Employment Insurance (EI) recipients increased in May. We already knew from the Labour Force Survey that unemployment had increased by just over 8,000 in May. It is good news that EI expanded by the same amount because it implies that those who became unemployed that month received benefits. However, it […]
Read moreI am a member of the National Statistics Council, an expert advisory group to Statistics Canada. We meet twice a year as a group with the Chief Statistician and senior Statscan staff. The members are a varied group of expert users of data. The Chair of the Council, Ian McKinnon, released this statement to the media last night. STATEMENT ON […]
Read moreMy union’s contribution to the debate follows: July 21, 2010 Hon. Tony Clement Minister of Industry 235 Queen Street Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0H5 Dear Minister Clement: I write to ask you to reverse two recent decisions that threaten to undermine the quality and quantity of data produced by Statistics Canada. First, making the long-form questionnaire optional in the upcoming census […]
Read moreOne thing that really bugs me about the mainstream media coverage of the economy is the frequently asserted view that the jobs recovery is now almost complete – meaning that total employment has returned to pre recession levels. As one example, the Globe’s coverage of yesterday’s interest rate increase referred to “Canada’s unique position as a rich country that has […]
Read moreLast week someone sent me an email with a subject line that read “Emergency Singalong” They had watched the evolution of the census story with dismay and decided it was time to turn things around. Cleverly rewriting the lyrics to Garry and the Playboy’s 1960s hit Count Me In, a group assembled at his house last Friday. The rest, as […]
Read moreDr. Bill Stanbury — a regular contributor to the Hill Times, professor emeritus at UBC, economist and self-described as centre-right — has urged me to work with him to compile a list of every organization who has taken a public stand on opposing the government’s decision to ax the census long-form questionnaire, and replace it with a voluntary household survey. […]
Read moreSince Stephen Harper and David Cameron seem to be on the same wavelength, and the UK thinks it can trash census and turn to isources like credit records for its information needs, the story below on privacy, from Alberta, may be of possible interest. Report of an Investigation into the Security, Collection and Retention of Personal Information TJX Companies Inc. […]
Read moreWhile Canadians tried to talk census sense to their rulers, here’s what the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-Moon, had to say about the importance of the census on Sunday July 11: “Population data helps leaders and policy-makers to make informed decisions about policies and programmes to reduce poverty and hunger, and advance education, health and gender equality,†The […]
Read moreToday a truly surprising assembly of organizations – definitely not a coalition – made a group request for a meeting with the Minister who has been put in charge of executing the decision to ax the Census long-form questionnaire. Their objective? “We understand that the far-reaching impacts of this decision may not have been fully anticipated and we respectfully request […]
Read moreThere seems to be a consensus that the Bank of Canada will raise its target interest rate tomorrow. I thought that last month’s rate hike was premature, so I see no reason for another hike this month. The argument for higher interest rates is that they are needed to ward off future inflation (even though inflation is currently below the […]
Read moreA few years ago an important study, by Marc Frenette, David Green and Kevin Milligan, Revisiting Recent Trends in Canadian After-Tax Income Inequality Using Census Data, was published by Statscan. It did not get much profile but its implications for the current census debacle are startling. The authors summarize: … [E]xisting data sources may miss changes in the tails of […]
Read moreThe Globe and Mail has allowed their poll about Census “intrusiveness†to stand for the third day. By 10 a.m. on Sunday over 32,000 people had registered their vote with the newspaper. Undoubtedly this is some kind of record for the daily Globe poll, which got 222 votes for the previous one. The question is highly leading – “Do you […]
Read moreJeffrey Simpson’s column yesterday nailed it. There is only one reason this Census situation is so senselessly white-hot: the government’s position. Its radical ideology and stunning stubbornness have raised the stakes alarmingly high. There must be plenty of Conservatives who are recoiling at the shenanigans of these so-called Conservatives. Every time Tony Clement and the Prime Minister’s spokesthingy says “coercive†[…]
Read moreYesterday a CCPA board member alerted my Exec Director that the Globe and Mail poll for the day was on the Census, noting that, very early in the day, the poll was running 2 votes yes for every vote no. The polling question: Do you think the long-form census questionnaire is an intrusion on the privacy of Canadians? It’s a […]
Read moreI was wondering where our fellow researchers and analysts stood on this topic. They were unusually silent, even though I had invited them to participate in a group process requesting a meeting with the Minister and PM, a group which, by the way, seemed to cross all boundaries and divides. I stand corrected. http://www.canada.com/Fraser+Institute+dismisses+need+mandatory+long+form+census/3287248/story.html Quite by accident on my way […]
Read moreThe Conservatives apparently think that it is deeply intrusive for the state to count your bedrooms through the mandatory long form census. “Asked to explain why this matters to the core Conservative constituency, one senior Tory strategist said, on background: “It’s all about the nanny state. Why is it mandatory to tell the government how many bedrooms are in your […]
Read moreJewish, Evangelical groups oppose census change http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20100715/census-backlash-100715/ And this just in: Stephen’s cat Cheddar opposes the changes too. He’s cheesed! A colleague notes:”If you have the Jews, the Evangelicals, the provinces, growing parts of the business lobby, the academics, Quebec, the City of Calgary, the Community Foundations, the United Ways, the CLC, etc, there’s not a lot left other than […]
Read moreSHEESH! I’ve never seen anything like this, have you? My fave – Kelly McParland’s Full Comment, at the bottom. Hilarious and right on the money. THURSDAY CLIPPINGS “NEWS HOUR FINAL†Global BC and Global Ontario Broadcast Date: Thursday July 15 2010 The Harper government says it’s making changes to the census based on widespread privacy complaints but as Shirlee Engel […]
Read moreThere has been a persistent drumbeat in the American business press about corporations accumulating cash. The argument is that, while corporations are making solid profits now, they are not investing in the US for fear of anti-business policies in the future. Obama has allegedly spooked corporate America into hoarding cash rather than investing. To test that story, I looked at […]
Read moreThe Honourable Tony Clement Minister of Industry House of Commons Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A6 Dear Minister Clement: Re: Labour Market Information and the 2011 Long-Form Census Questionnaire The Canadian Labour Congress (CLC) requests that you, as the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada, revisit your decision to cancel the mandatory long-form census questionnaire. By discontinuing the long-form census and replacing it […]
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