My Globe and Mail column today looks at the issue of trade imbalances in global trade. Countries like Germany have stimulated their own recoveires (for now) by deliberately targeting large trade surpluses; this strategy has also been followed for years by China, Japan, Korea, and others enamoured with export-led growth (which is a totally different animal, keep in mind, from […]
Read moreThe fact that 31,400 fewer Canadians received regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits in July would be good news if it reflected an improved job market. But the Labour Force Survey indicates that, in July, employment decreased by 9,300 and unemployment increased by 17,900. These figures suggest that thousands of unemployed workers are running out of EI benefits without finding jobs. […]
Read moreOn September 9th, Canada’s Prime Minister received a letter from Mel Cappe, David Dodge, Alex Himelfarb and Ivan Fellegi. It opened with a stern warning that government actions with regard to the census over the summer “put the well earned credibility and respected international standing of Statistics Canada at risk”. Then they told him how to fix the problem. [The […]
Read moreBC’s carbon tax was supposed to be “revenue neutral”, meaning all carbon tax revenue would be “recycled” to British Columbians through personal income tax cuts, corporate income tax cuts and a low-income credit. When the 2008 budget launched the carbon tax, we were provided with a forecast that had revenues precisely match recycling through tax cuts and credits, with about […]
Read moreMany blog readers are no doubt aware that, late last month, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives released a paper by David Macdonald entitled “Canada’s Housing Bubble:Â An Accident Waiting to Happen.” As the title suggests, Macdonald argues: Canada is experiencing, for the first time in the last 30 years, a synchronized housing bubble across the six largest residential real […]
Read moreToday’s Consumer Price Index release told a tale of two inflations. The national rate decreased from 1.8% to 1.7% while Ontario’s inflation rate remained at 2.9%, the highest in Canada. Monetary Policy Of course, monetary policy should reflect the whole country. The national inflation rate decreasing to 1.7% in August begs the question of why the Bank of Canada has […]
Read moreA globeandmail.com article posted last night discusses a recent report on post-secondary education in Nova Scotia. The report itself, released yesterday, was written by BMO’s former Chief Economist, Tim O’Neill. According to the article, O’Neill’s report calls for “complete deregulation of tuition fees” in Nova Scotia. Moreover: He believes that higher tuitions are more equitable because they force students, who are disproportionately […]
Read moreI have an opinion piece out on “pathway colleges,” a relatively new phenomenon in Canada. In this public-private partnership (P3) model, private companies recruit international students to Canadian university campuses, targeting students who currently do not meet the university’s admissions criteria (usually because they lack the necessary English-language skills). Once the students arrive in Canada, the company hires instructors (paying them considerably less […]
Read moreMurray Mandryk, CanWest’s seasoned Saskatchewan political columnist, has been writing some pretty sharp columns on potash. In particular, he questions excessively low resource royalties: . . . the messaging from Energy Minister Bill Boyd that his government wouldn’t touch oil royalty rates (even when it was selling at $150 a barrel), and the potash companies should get most anything they […]
Read moreThe following will appear in the Hill Times print edition next Monday, September 20, sans the groovy chart and links. Falling response rates and declining voter turnouts are two symptoms of increased disengagement in the mechanisms that inform and channel collective concerns. In such a political climate, the mandatory census long form questionnaire is a tool that can help keep […]
Read moreThe OECD Economic Survey of Canada (unfortunately only a summary is available on line) was released this week, and its call to impose user fees or deductibles on services covered by Medicare (ie physician and hospital care) received quite a lot of media coverage. I saw OECD economist Peter Jarrett doing at least two TV interviews here in Canada which […]
Read moreA week ago, Paul Krugman wrote that Japan’s stable if sluggish economy and low unemployment could start looking pretty good compared to the Voodoo economics advocated by US Republicans. The counterintuitive case for Japan as an economic model just became more compelling with the Bank of Japan’s intervention to lower the yen. As reported on the front page of today’s […]
Read moreIf there was truth in news reporting, the Globe’s “report” on private schools (Sept. 14) would be labeled a “special advertising supplement”. It is essentially a cheerleading exercise for private schools, funded by advertising from private schools, so you’ll find no news in this report. Which is too bad because the topic of private schools merits some real journalism about […]
Read moreConcerns about the prospect of BHP Billiton leaving Canpotex have prompted a backlash of hand-wringing about Canpotex’s very existence. For example, The Globe and Mail featured an editorial earlier this month that began by suggesting, “Canadian policy-makers should reconsider the status of Canpotex.†But it concluded, “In practice, unwinding Canpotex would be no simple matter. Moreover it would be a […]
Read moreI appreciate a compelling headline, but “The Walls that Divide Us†in today’s Globe and Mail is way over the top. For building the myth of “internal trade barriers,†Barrie McKenna’s column should have been entitled, “Another Brick in the Wall.†Three claims are especially questionable. First, “A recent back-of-the-envelope calculation by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute puts the tally of internal trade […]
Read moreWhile we’re talking about labour markets, here’s a blog post I wrote for CCPA’s PolicyNote blog. — An interesting chart from The Economist shows that over a third of young university graduates in Canada end up working in low skilled jobs. In fact, Canada is second only to Spain in the OECD when it comes to young grads employed in […]
Read moreThis is a true story. I made porridge for my children this morning, as I usually do.  When my son first tried it, it was too hot. When I finally got around to eating, it after making the kid’s lunches, it was too cold. But when my daughter tried it, it was just right (and no, she doesn’t have golden […]
Read moreTotal employment reportedly increased by 36,000 in August. This increase was entirely driven by 68,400 more jobs in educational services, which simply offset a decline of 65,300 in July. In other words, the educators that Statistics Canada counted as being “unemployed†in midsummer are now “employed.†So, today’s Labour Force Survey confirms that July’s release was less bad than it […]
Read moreFor reasons that escape me, the Globe ran a headline front page story today on what all fiscal policy and Employment Insurance wonks have known to be true for some time. Under current legislation, and as announced in the 2009 Budget, the EI premium rate set by a supposedly autonomous but tightly constrained new body will rise by 15 cents […]
Read moreLinda McQuaig puts the heat on Ontario’s public-sector compensation freeze in today’s Toronto Star. Her excellent column begins by noting that the federal government has fended off proposed financial-sector taxes on the grounds that Canadian banks did not cause the global financial crisis. But Canadian public-sector workers, who are even less responsible for the crisis, are expected to make a […]
Read moreHere is a good piece by Tom Palley in the FT Economists Forum on where the Obama Administration should be moving in terms of economic (though I am not holding my breath until the economic team is dumped) http://blogs.ft.com/economistsforum/2010/09/plan-b-for-obama-on-the-economy/#more-11616
Read moreOne thing I find a bit annoying over at Statscan is that detailed tables related to a release sometimes appear on the web site a few days after headline numbers are released in the Daily. I was phoned by a couple of reporters seeking comment following the release of wage data (from the Survey of Employment, Earnings and Hours) in […]
Read moreThis summer, the Ontario government has been attempting to implement its proposed public-sector compensation freeze. The provincial Finance Minister has essentially promised that he can convince organized labour to comply. But as recent news reports confirm, unions have not been volunteering for a pay freeze, especially since the government apparently has enough spare cash to implement multi-billion-dollar corporate tax cuts. […]
Read moreJim and I responded somewhat differently to Tuesday’s GDP release. Jim’s Globe and Mail column suggested that it was especially bad: “We’re clearly heading for stagnation at best, and quite possibly another ‘double dip’ downturn.†I perceived a ray or two of hope and told The Toronto Star: “I’m not predicting a double dip.†While I think that we actually […]
Read more The ILO and the IMF are holding an important high level conference in Oslo on the “Challenges of Growth, Employment and Social Cohesion” on September 13. In advance, they have released an important joint discussion paper. The summary  – highly reflective of the ILO contribution but not contradicted by the IMF contribution – makes a number of the key points […]
Read moreMichael Hlinka is the notoriously libertarian daily economics reporter on CBC Metro Morning (the flagship morning radio show in Toronto). Our paths have crossed before; see my previous commentary: http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2009/07/11/another-economics-journalism-is-possible/ Michael’s segment on September 1 (in conversation with host Matt Galloway) focused on the Statistics Canada GDP release. It was a sensible and largely uncontroversial discussion, with Michael taking a […]
Read moreToday, the Government of Saskatchewan announced that it is engaging the Conference Board of Canada to analyze the proposed Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan takeover. My first thought is to hope that the Conference Board does a better job on potash than it did on TILMA. My second thought is, “Doesn’t Saskatchewan have a civil service?†Presumably, the provincial government already […]
Read moreThe Government of Saskatchewan wants nothing to do with a state (read China) corporation takeover of Potash Corp. The Globe reports: “The Saskatchewan government signalled Wednesday that it is unlikely to support a takeover of the Saskatoon-based company by a sovereign wealth fund or other state-owned firm from China or other large potash-buying nation. The fear is that the new […]
Read moreFor those involved in social change work, these days can be frustrating ones. Just as the neoliberal order of tax cuts, deregulation, resource extraction and free trade seems to be maxed out, like the Energizer bunny it keeps coming back. Meanwhile, progressive forces (academics, unions, NGOs and political parties) can give a good fight from time to time, but overall […]
Read moreYesterday’s GDP numbers were worse than they seemed. And they highlighted a curious feature of modern capitalism. Nowadays, non-financial businesses have become major net lenders to the rest of the economy. Instead of borrowing money (in various forms: debt, equity, etc.) from other sectors to finance real investment, non-financial businesses are not even reinvesting their own cash flow. The surplus […]
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