Keystone Liberals Yesterday, Andrew Coyne lambasted a Liberal Party “Reality Check†from Thursday that looks eerily similar to the table that I had posted on Monday. Like my table, the Liberals use the words “Growthâ€, “Declineâ€, and “Britain.†By contrast, the OECD’s tables use a negative sign (instead of words) to denote declines and refer to the “United Kingdom.†The […]
Read moreLayoffs Continue Today’s Labour Force Survey indicates that full-time employment declined by 4,000 in August. There were 7,000 fewer jobs in goods-producing industries. Retailers Hire A surprising 21,000 new jobs in retail and wholesale trade propelled economy-wide employment up by 27,000. This increase consisted entirely of part-time jobs. While any employment gain is welcome news, the quality of these new […]
Read moreDisappointingly, press coverage of Monday’s GDP numbers missed the fact that Canada had posted the worst second-quarter performance of any G-7 country. To his credit, Julian Beltrame of Canadian Press picked it up on Tuesday. The media has redeemed itself by noting that today’s Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projections suggest that Canada will post the worst third quarter […]
Read moreThe September BC Budget is a new look at a budget most have come to see as a fake. February’s budget was not passed through the legislature due to the May election, and up to E-Day the government maintained the fiction that it had a small-ish deficit of just under half a billion dollars. Since that time, the government has […]
Read moreA key justification for small-business tax breaks is that small enterprises are supposedly engines of job creation. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business’ (CFIB) oft-repeated claim that “small- and medium-size businesses employ more than half the workforce” (PDF) cites Statistics Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. A closer examination of that Survey casts doubt on this statement, the quantity […]
Read moreThis morning’s Gross Domestic Product figures put the lie to Prime Minister Harper’s claim that “we will come out of this faster than anyone.” While many other advanced economies grew or stabilized during the second quarter of 2009, the Canadian economy shrank by 0.9%. During this period, three G7 countries – Japan, Germany and France – experienced economic growth. The […]
Read moreColumnist Doug Saunders writes (from his Mediterranean cruise) in today’s Globe: “It’s a little like the decision being faced by the Bank of Canada, which can print money and ease the dollar’s value downward to please Ontario’s manufacturers, or let it rise to please Alberta’s petroleum exporters – but not both.” Huh? Petro exporters get more Canadian dollars and higher […]
Read moreUPDATE (August 26): Quoted by Canadian Press, Canwest, The Toronto Star and Hamilton Spectator It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… It would be welcome news if the number of Canadians receiving Employment Insurance (EI) benefits increased because of a proactive policy decision to expand this program to combat the recession. In fact, the ongoing rise […]
Read moreI missed the Globe and Mail letters on Thursday (because Jack Mintz’s op-ed prompted me to instead read The National Post that day.) Among them was the following letter from Bruce Hyer, the key advocate of not taxing “small business†profits: Yes, there was a vote I read with interest your editorial The Tax-Cutting Left? (Aug. 18) on the New […]
Read moreHere’s my modest contribution to the debate on re-naming the NDP. Ed Broadbent and others have made the excellent point that “NDP” is a solid brand that stands for something – namely belief in social democracy, a revitalized, new democracy. However, I don’t buy the argument that “New” qualifies “Democratic” in the same way that “New” qualifies “York” in New […]
Read moreI had been fiddling with my last post in spare moments since the federal NDP convention. I fiddled long enough that Jack Mintz beat me to the punch in critiquing the proposal to eliminate corporate tax on small-business profits. His op-ed appeared in yesterday’s Financial Post. His priority is to slash the general corporate tax rate down to the same […]
Read moreStrangely, neither of the two most hyped issues at last weekend’s federal NDP convention reached the floor for debate. I have nothing to add to the discussion about changing the party’s name. However, the proposal to not tax small-business profits compels me to elaborate the case I made when Nova Scotia Liberals promised to slash the provincial small-business tax to […]
Read moreBenjamin Tal over at CIBC thinks there is good news to be found in the fact that the average duration of unemployment is not rising much despite the fact that unemployment is rising rapidly. As reported in a green shoots kind of good news story by the Globe and Mail In dramatic contrast to past recessions and the current situation […]
Read moreIn July, the Consumer Price Index posted an annual decline of 0.9%, the most negative inflation rate since July of 1953. This decline is troubling not only because it is larger than last month’s decline, but also because it is more widespread. Recent decreases in inflation have mainly been driven by lower gasoline prices in 2009 compared to 2008. This […]
Read moreThere are some really wonderful new young economists out of Canada. I just had to let folks know of a fabulous study “Coups, Corporations and Classified Informationâ€(find it via this list) done by one of them: Suresh Naidu (one of our own) and his colleagues Arindrajit Dube and Ethan Kaplan. (In the interest of full disclosure, Suresh is a buddy […]
Read moreHere is a guest post from BC union (Steelworker) researcher Kim Pollock. By Kim Pollock There is growing evidence that a new stock-market bubble is growing daily, right before our very eyes. But while stock-market prices and market capitalization grow, there are still few signs of real economic recovery. In Canada for instance, real gross domestic product decreased 0.5 percent in […]
Read moreAdvocates of harmonizing provincial sales taxes with the federal GST almost always argue from the premise that, whereas the GST only covers consumer purchases, provincial sales taxes apply to all business inputs. Harmonization is then presented as a means of removing the sales tax from business purchases of machinery and equipment to promote new investment. Not surprisingly, provincial governments have […]
Read moreThank you, Jim Flaherty and Stephen Harper. I just finished the first leg of a long-contemplated kitchen renovation that got pushed over the top by February’s federal budget tax credit for home renovations. This year only! Act now before it is too late! The credit is worth a maximum of $1,350 per family if you spent a full $10,000 or […]
Read moreToday’s Labour Force Survey indicates that employers paid 79,000 fewer Canadians in July. However, a surge of workers declaring self-employment or abandoning the workforce altogether left 9,000 fewer Canadians officially unemployed. Self-Employment Many Canadians are turning to self-employment due to a lack of jobs. Self-employment rose by 35,000 in July, reaching another all-time high. As a result, the net decrease […]
Read moreToday’s job numbers are a clear sign that, far from entering a recovery, the Canadian economy is still in free-fall. This was the first month of the third quarter, the quarter in which the Bank of Canada expects positive GDP growth to resume . But, over the past two months, the number of employees has fallen by 124,000 or one […]
Read moreIt is a bit stunning to discover that Jack Mintz – former head of the CD Howe Institute and now at the University of Calgary – has been appointed research director of the federal – provincial review of pensions. http://www.vancouversun.com/business/fp/Jack+Mintz+research+director+pension+reform+task+force/1794203/story.html Even Finance Minister Flaherty should be a bit embarassed to appoint as a “researcher” someone who is so strongly on […]
Read moreI note from a CP wire story that Ottawa U economist David Gray is weighing in behind Harper’s argument that lowering eligibility for EI would be a “disaster”, and I suspect strongly he will not be the last to do so.    http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1135526.html The received wisdom among mainstream neo liberal economists is that a “generous” EI program creates disincentives to […]
Read moreComments in the Bank of Canada’s last two interest-rate announcements and by its Governor have fuelled speculation that it might intervene in currency markets to moderate the overvalued Canadian dollar. Of course, these remarks may be garnering undue and unintended attention. With the Bank conditionally committed to no interest-rate changes for a year, comments on the dollar have been the […]
Read moreLetter to the Queen: Why No One Predicted the Crisis Her Majesty The Queen Buckingham Palace London SW1A 1AA 29 July 2009 MADAM, In response to your question why no one predicted the crisis you have recently received a letter from Professors Tim Besley and Peter Hennessy, sent on behalf of the British Academy. They claim economists’ failure to foresee […]
Read moreWhile this morning’s American GDP numbers were less bad than expected, this morning’s Canadian GDP numbers were worse than expected. May saw the second-deepest decline of any month so far in 2009. Indeed, May’s 0.5% contraction was almost as bad as January’s 0.6% contraction. Sectoral Breakdown Like January and the intervening months, May was characterized by flat output from the […]
Read moreThe worst news in today’s Employment Insurance (EI) figures is that new benefit claims hit a record high. Rising numbers of unemployed workers and hence EI beneficiaries are an unsurprising result of a deteriorating labour market. However, the increase the number of new EI claims suggests that the pace of deterioration is worsening rather than easing. Despite signs of a nascent […]
Read moreIn its first major economic policy announcement, the freshly re-elected BC Liberal government announced that it would be harmonizing the 7% Provincial Sales Tax (PST) with the 5% federal GST, as of July 1, 2010. What is striking about the new Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) of 12% is that it did not feature in the recent BC election in any […]
Read moreHere’s the link to the second issue of the CLC publication “Recession Watch” detailing recent labour market developments http://canadianlabour.ca/sites/clc/files/Recession-Watch-02-EN.pdf
Read moreI normally hesitate to make short term economic prognostications and the Bank of Canada could indeed be right that growth might tip over the cusp from negative to positive in the third quarter as the first sign of a “nascent recovery” from the Great Recession. As many have noted, including Jim on the National on Thursday night, a mildly positive […]
Read moreThe Spring, 2009 issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy contains a useful and interesting piece which convincingly rebuts the often cited and assumed link between Unemployment Insurance “generosity” and higher unemployment due to alleged disincentives to work. You’ll have to pay for the full article, I’m afraid, but here is the abstract. Unemployment compensation and high European unemployment: […]
Read more