The Liberals released a “costed” platform today. http://www.liberal.ca/platform_e.aspx There’s a lot to like here in terms of the Liberal Party’s programmatic commitments to child care , support for manufacturing investment, green job creation, public health care, student aid, basic infrastructure, dealing with poverty, and so on – but I stand by my earlier argument that they can’t balance the Budget, […]
Read moreHere’s a statement from the Secretariat of the Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD (TUAC) http://www.tuac.org/en/public/e-docs/00/00/03/13/document_news.phtml The dramatic events on the US and global financial markets in the past days – the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the takeover of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and not least, the government bailing out of AIG, the largest insurer in the […]
Read moreThe Globe and Mail is carrying a report today on a possible Canada-EU trade deal, suggesting that negotiations will be launched shortly after the election. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080918.wtrade18/BNStory/International/home Described as a negotiation of deep economic integration, “the proposed pact would far exceed the scope of older agreements such as NAFTA by encompassing not only unrestricted trade in goods, services and investment and […]
Read moreI’m afrtaid you are going to have to pay for it, but this is an excellent review – from the current issue of the New York Review of Books – of what loooks to be an excellent book on the state of the American working class. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/article-preview?article_id=21798 Time for a New Deal By Jeff Madrick The Big Squeeze: Tough Times […]
Read moreWe all know the Conservatives are the “rational economic managers,” right? After all, their tax cuts, free trade agreements, and tough-love social policy are all motivated by the need to free the entrepreneurial beast within us, and allow us to pursue our natural proclivity to truck and trade with wild abandon. The productivity of the free market is the common […]
Read moreHarper today announced that he would include self-employed workers in EI for purposes of paid maternity and parental leave. Extending such EI coverage is a good idea, and Quebec has already done this through a provincial adaptation of the EI program which requires a separate provincial premium rate. In Quebec, partcipation by the self-employed is mandatory so they all contribute […]
Read moreNow that Elizabeth May is set to join in the televised election debates, her party’s platform will come under greater scrutiny. There is much to like in it – especially a major investment program in energy efficiency, alternative energy, public transit and so on. Her commitment to seriously dealing with climate change and creating a new economy and new jobs […]
Read moreAs the federal political parties begin to make promises of new spending or tax cuts, the question arises as to how much fiscal room is available to Canada’s next government.The short answer is that the Conservatives and Liberals have locked themselves into the same fiscal box, and only the NDP has the room needed to make new commitments. As Erin […]
Read moreIt has to go down as one of the most modest reponses to the manufacturing jobs crisis one could imagine. On Friday – literally on the eve of the election call -Â Human Resources Minister Monte Solberg announced that four Ontario EI regions – Huron, Niagara, Oshawa and Windsor – will be added to the list of high unemployment regions […]
Read moreMargaret Wente (“For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls”, today’s Globe) argues, based on a new book by Charles Murray that “educational romanticism has led us to believe that every student can become at least average, and that the right teaching strategies can close the achievement gap.†Some people are just dumb, and there’s not much that can be done about […]
Read moreThe August employment numbers seem modestly positive, but only in comparison to July’s ruinous numbers. Canada’s labour market weakened severely during the summer of 2008. The Employment Numbers in Context The creation of 41,000 private-sector jobs in August replaces fewer than half of the 95,000 private-sector jobs lost in July. The loss of 24,000 public-sector jobs in August wipes out […]
Read moreFor a third consecutive announcement, the central bank’s communications department reused the headline, “Bank of Canada keeps overnight rate target at 3 per cent.” This repetition implies that central bankers have not perceived a fundamental shift in the balance of factors considered since they last changed interest rates four and a half months ago. In fact, much has changed in […]
Read moreI have long subscribed to Challenge magazine, a generally progressive and accessible US economic journal which I recommend highly to readers of this blog. Individual articles can be downloaded, for a fee of $25. The current issue has an excellent piece by the LSE’s Robert Wade on the current financial crisis, which he sees as rooted not just in financial […]
Read moreMy take on today’s second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release follows: Economy Shrinks, But Dodges Recession Canada’s GDP was lower at the end of June ($1,327,118 million) than at the end of last year ($1,328,606 million). Although the Canadian economy is smaller now than it was two quarters ago, it is technically not in recession because it did not shrink […]
Read moreWhat a cliff-hanger! 0.3% annualized growth for the 2Q, and no “official recession” (not yet, anyway). I win my own pool (with my 0.2% guess). I will devote my winnings to the CCPA. The other guesses are posted in the comments section of the original recession-watch blog post here: http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2008/08/09/jimbos-official-recession-watch-lottery/ Couple of tidbits in today’s GDP numbers: 1. If it […]
Read moreIn the second quarter of 2008, record oil prices outweighed the continuing manufacturing crisis, the worst services deficit ever recorded, and widening deficits in investment income and current transfers. The Surplus in Perspective The rise of Canada’s current-account surplus to $6.8 billion in the second quarter is positive news for the Canadian economy. However, this surplus is still less than last year’s […]
Read moreThe United Steelworkers union has been on strike at three Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan mines since August 7. This labour dispute raises much broader questions about the distribution of resource rents. The following op-ed, printed in today’s Regina Leader-Post, updates the op-ed printed in the Saskatoon StarPheonix before the strike. Workers, citizens miss potash profits The Leader-Post (Regina) Thursday, August 21, […]
Read moreComparing today’s Consumer Price Index figures for July 2008 with Labour Force Survey figures for the same month reveals that the annual increase in Canada’s average hourly wage (4.0%) barely exceeded the annual increase in Canadian consumer prices (3.4%). As a result, real wages rose by only 0.6% over the past year. In fact, relative to inflation, workers in Ontario […]
Read moreThe Task Force on Older Workers appointed by HRSDC Minister Solberg did endorse – in a limited way- labour’s call for severance pay to be ignored for EI purposes – but only for long tenure workers with a record of no prior EI claims in the previous 5 years. (My earlier post on this is http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2008/04/09/employment-insurance-and-severance-pay/ Similarly, they endorsed our […]
Read moreIn Saturday’s Globe and Mail, Brian Milner summarized Vitaliy Katsenelson’s historical analysis of American stock markets. He distinguishes “bull markets” from “range-bound markets”: . . . growth patterns may be similar. What separates the two are stock valuations, which soar to such unrealistic heights during raging bull periods that it takes years for them to come back down to normal […]
Read moreSeveral American labour groups have filed a complaint against Wal-Mart for instructing its employees to vote against Obama and other Democrats. I first got wind of this electoral controversy a couple of weeks ago through The Hamilton Spectator, which printed an Associated Press story that succinctly outlines Wal-Mart’s actions and the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) against which these actions […]
Read moreOnce again, there seems to be a heavier hand in censoring or editing Statistics Canada’s releases. This morning The Daily reported that: “Spending on research and development in the higher education sector amounted to $9.6 billion (current dollars) in the fiscal year 2006/2007.” but there was no word on whether this was an increase or decrease from the previous period, which Statscan releases […]
Read moreThe United Steelworkers’ union has just issued the following release: SHAREHOLDER ALERT: PCS STOCK UNDERPERFORMING COMPETITOR DURING STRIKE SASKATOON, SK — United Steelworkers’ (USW) Western Canada Director Stephen Hunt said Thursday that investors should use their influence to urge Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (PCS) management to negotiate a settlement with Steelworkers on strike at three mines near Saskatoon. “PCS stock […]
Read moreAm I the only one who detected a distinct note of spin-doctoring in the write-up of Statistics Canada’s eye-popping labour force release yesterday? Here are the first two paragraphs of the release: “Following gains at the beginning of 2008, and little change from April to June, employment dropped by 55,000 in July. The unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, as many people, particularly […]
Read moreFriday’s eye-popping employment numbers (55,000 lost jobs, the worst one-month toll since the 1991 recession), combined with the previous week’s negative GDP numbers (down 0.1% in May, the fourth decline in six months), have raised once again the spectre that Canada’s total economy is teetering on the edge of “official” recession. The suspense is growing as we head toward the […]
Read moreJames Galbraith bats this one out of the park: Years ago, I realized that the free-market, supply-side crowd, true conservatives who’d ridden high with Reagan, dislike Bush as much as I do. I speak of the hard money, low-tax, Wall Street Journal, deregulate-and-privatize team, the nemeses of my youth, people like Bruce Bartlett, Paul Craig Roberts, the late Jude Wanniski. […]
Read moreMy take on today’s grisly Labour Force Survey follows: Private-Sector Meltdown Canada’s private sector eliminated 95,000 jobs in July. In other words, nearly 1% of Canadian private-sector jobs disappeared in a single month. The creation of 30,000 public-sector jobs and 11,000 self-employed positions offset less than half of this loss. Although manufacturing accounts for below a fifth of private-sector employment, […]
Read moreOn the eve of the Beijing Olympics, recognition should certainly go to the scores of workers who toiled to build the stunning spors palaces and who have made China into the economic powerhouse it is today. Instead, many have received layoff notices and warnings to leave the Chinese capital, as the New York Times reported today. A remarkable 4 million […]
Read moreYesterday, the Premier’s hand-picked Climate Action Team released its final report to the government. As is often the case with government, the CAT consisted of a range of “stakeholders”, although with one glaring omission: no representation from labour. The CAT has been deliberating for several months on how to meet the 2020 target of a 33% reduction in greenhouse gas […]
Read moreI was recently trolling through Statistics Canada (LICO – After Tax) data on CANSIM and discovered to my slight surprise that the incidence of poverty (or low income as StatsCan politely prefers to describe it) has fallen very significantly among the elderly (age 65 and over.) I knew the rate was relatively low and had been falling, but it has […]
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