Recession, or No Recession?
What a cliff-hanger!Â 0.3% annualized growth for the 2Q, and no “official recession” (not yet, anyway).Â I win my own pool (with my 0.2% guess).Â I will devote my winnings to the CCPA.Â The other guesses are posted in the comments section of the original recession-watch blog post here:
Couple of tidbits in today’s GDP numbers:
1. If it weren’t for that big downward adjustment to the 1Q numbers, we’d be in recession (since without it, 2Q GDP would be LOWER than the unadjusted 1Q number).
2. Similar adjusments to the 2Q number could easily push us into an official recession.Â Conspiracy theorists take note: no adjustments to the 2Q number will be published until AFTER the mid-October federal election.
3. Canada’s real GDP (by both the quarterly data and the monthly basic price data) was lower in June than 9 months earlier.Â It’s only an arithmetic fluke that has prevented this sustained (if gradual) downturn from converting into two consecutive quarterly declines.
In short, there is utterly nothingÂ in these numbers to give any comfort whatsoever to Harper and Flaherty.Â Canada is mired in its worst downturn in 17 years, and we are LEADING the U.S. into the economic soup (rather than coasting on tax cuts and our so-called “fundamentals” to a recession-free nirvana).