The biggest international meeting on climate change, perhaps since Kyoto itself, is coming up in early December in Copenhagen. But the closer we get to Copenhagen, the farther away an agreement seems to be. Sadly, there has been precious little coverage of the ongoing negotiations in the mainstream media, further demonstrating the increasing irrelevance of our daily papers and TV […]
Read moreA press release released at the end of an IMF staff visit to Canada says “it will be essential to maintain a highly accommodative macroeconomic policy stance as intended until the economic recovery is firmly established, in light of risks on the horizon. These risks include weaker-than-expected global growth and a further strengthening of the Canadian dollar.” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09401.htm Bang on!
Read moreThe Canadian dollar is again becoming more overvalued. After dipping as low as 92 US cents at the end of October, it rocketed up to 96 US cents so far today. Meanwhile, the OECD has released another month of purchasing-power data. Although the loonie’s average price on foreign-exchange markets edged up between August and September, its relative buying power in […]
Read moreI fear that Tom Walkom of the Toronto Star is bang on when he argues that the next victims of the recession will be public sector workers. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/722505–walkom-recession-s-next-victim-will-be-public-sector As he writes: “The federal government has already signalled plans to get tough with its workers. In Ontario, Premier Dalton McGuinty gave notice this week that the province’s public sector – including […]
Read moreA guest post from PEF Steering Committee member, Nick Falvo, initially published in The Charlatan: Spending on students makes sense Students from across Ontario took to the streets Nov. 5 to fight for a fairer deal for post-secondary education. This is a struggle that students must fight to win, as decreasing government funding, rising tuition fees and a slumping economy […]
Read moreThis past week, Jack Mintz issued a report (PDF) praising Ontario’s last provincial budget. I like East Side Mario’s because it features both all-you-can-eat bread and all-you-can-eat salad. So, it is not surprising that a corporate tax-fighter would love a budget featuring both corporate income tax cuts and the removal of sales tax from business inputs. Queen’s Park is giving […]
Read moreAs yesterday’s Labour Force Survey confirmed, the recession continues for the vast majority of Canadians, who rely on employment for most of their income. But the technical measure of a recession is consecutive quarterly declines in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Some have suggested that, even by this measure, the recession continues. Of course, we will not have a definitive […]
Read moreI purchase a monthly unadjusted Labour Force Survey data series from StatsCan that provides monthly labour force trends by age, sex, province, and type of job (full-time, part-time, by industry, and by status – self-employed or employed). This is a helpful addition to the published monthly stats in The Daily, which use seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labour Force Survey. […]
Read moreOne dimension of today’s dismal jobs report that hasn’t received enough attention yet is the continuing slide in labour force participation. It declined again to 67.0 percent (following a bigger decline last month that was the crucial ingredient in September’s counter-intuitive reduction in the unemployment rate). The participation rate hasn’t been lower since July 2002 — over nine years ago. […]
Read moreUPDATE (November 7): Quoted by The Toronto Star and Canadian Press Today’s release of negative job numbers for October undoes much of the surprisingly strong reported improvement in September. The national unemployment rate is again closer to 9% than to 8%. Canada-US Comparison The US unemployment rate cracking 10% will undoubtedly garner much Canadian attention. While the absolute level of […]
Read moreThe good folks at PERI at U Mass Amherst led by Gerry Epstein and Jane D’Arista have just launched a new web site so theirr useful work on why and how to reign in finance can be easily accessed. http://www.peri.umass.edu/safer/ “The Economists’ Committee for Stable, Accountable, Fair and Efficient Financial Reform (SAFER) is a focal point, clearinghouse and coordinating mechanism […]
Read moreThe David Suzuki Foundation and the Pembina Institute should be thanked for their efforts to put forward an integrated economic and emissions reduction strategy for Canada. The study was done to their specifications by M.K. Jaccard and Associates. http://www.davidsuzuki.org/latestnews/dsfnews10290901.asp The really important bottom line of this study is that aggressive action to deal seriously with the challenge of climate change […]
Read moreAs noted before on this blog, federal and provincial corporate tax cuts will redirect revenue from Canadian governments to the U.S. treasury. Today, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives released a short paper (PDF) I wrote on the treasury transfer effect. My executive summary follows: The U.S. government taxes American corporations on a worldwide basis. Profits repatriated from other countries are subject to […]
Read moreThe BC government recently announced a new climate action of some consequence: the phasing out of the Burrard Thermal plant in Metro Vancouver. The unit was used largely for back-up purposes, producing electricity for BC Hydro to supplement hydropower during times of high demand. But at a large GHG cost per unit of energy — about 351 kilotonnes of CO2 […]
Read moreCanadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in August. The decline mainly reflected temporary closures of major oil rigs, mines and mills due to maintenance or labour disputes. This explanation is valid, as far as it goes. However, the broader issue is that more widespread economic growth should be more than offsetting these isolated events. Today’s release reveals a […]
Read moreThis blog flagged, and Worthwhile Canadian Initiative pursued, a striking discrepancy in July’s employment data. The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) indicated that employers paid 74,000 more employees. Conversely, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) had indicated that employers paid 79,000 fewer employees in July. This difference of 153,000 exceeds 1% of Canada’s workforce. Today’s release of SEPH figures […]
Read moreVale, the company against which my union has been on strike since July, presented its third-quarter earnings this morning. These figures confirm that Vale does not need the concessions it has been demanding and that the strike is costing it significantly. The company wants to eliminate defined-benefit pensions for new employees and drastically reduce the bonus plan that pays workers […]
Read moreI regret to see that the Canadian Policy Research Networks (CPRN) are closing down. This further narrows the scope and space for civil and rational public policy discourse in Canada, and is a not accidental by product of cuts in federal government support for independent policy research combined with lack of business support for think tanks other than those of […]
Read moreLast week, the City of Vancouver’s task force, the Greenest City Action Team, issued a plan for the city with short and longer-term goals and policy advice on achieving them. The report covers more than climate change, a good thing as it is important to identify win-wins that lead to improvement on other environmental, health and social objectives as we […]
Read moreI have always grudgingly admired the Canadian Taxpayers Federation’s ability to manufacture news, but last week’s op-ed by Kevin Gaudet takes the cake. It launches an attack on Equalization from an utterly false premise: Next year, federal equalization payments to the provinces are expected to decline anywhere from 10 to 15%. As a result, some premiers are demanding that the […]
Read moreDepending on who you talk to, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is either the face of climate salvation or the height of delusional behaviour associated with our favourite hallucinogenic drug, fossil fuels. I have read both cases and suspect that the truth is somewhere in between, but I’m not an engineer either so it has been hard to make up […]
Read moreToday’s Employment Insurance (EI) figures indicate that, in August, 23,000 more Canadians filed EI claims but 19,000 fewer received EI benefits. The most optimistic possibility is that all of the workers who stopped receiving benefits got jobs. Indeed, the Labour Force Survey indicates that total employment rose by 27,000 in August. However, that is not the end of the story. […]
Read moreIt remains unclear whether or when Canada-US negotiations on “Buy American†policies might produce a deal. While such a bilateral agreement could serve both countries well, Canadians should resist pressure to have our provincial and municipal governments sign onto the World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Government Procurement. A Canadian exemption from Buy American requirements makes sense given the integration of […]
Read moreKonrad Yakabuski wrote a good final piece on Saturday to cap the interesting and informative Globe series on the pensions crisis. In it he touches on several possible policy solutions, including a universal pension plan. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/retirement/canadas-gathering-pension-storm/article1323513/ Unfortunately, he does not cite the Canadian Labour Congress proposal to double the CPP as part of a three pronged effort to fix pensions, […]
Read moreLast week, I posted about how several chartered-bank economists have been denying the Bank of Canada’s capacity to lower the Canadian dollar. While I think that the chartered banks generally prefer a high loonie, it is important to note that not all of their economists are signing from the same songbook. CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld advocates intervention by the Bank of […]
Read more(Notes for my presentation to a recent workshop on the concept of a basic income.) Over the years, we have put in place an effective income security system for older Canadians – CPP plus OAS/GIS have come close to providing an adequate basic income for the elderly. And we have the instrument we need to address child poverty – namely […]
Read moreDebate is heating up about whether the Bank of Canada should or will intervene in currency markets to lower the Canadian dollar (as I have been proposing for three months). Today’s two-cent drop in the exchange rate may indicate that currency traders are anticipating this possibility. Over at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, Stephen Gordon objected to recent comments from RBC’s Patricia Croft on […]
Read moreThe Bank of Canada seems to have at least left the door open to taking unorthodox measures to take some of the steam out of soaring loonie. Today’s interest rate announcement – http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/fixed-dates/2009/rate_201009.html – to be followed by a full Monetary Policy Report on Thursday – expresses concern that the strong Canadian dollar will hold back recovery… “The current strength […]
Read moreI recommend reading at least the executive summary of the Stiglitz Commission. The Commission was appointed by President Sarkozy of France to look at statistical measures of economic performance and social progress. It brought together most of the leading international experts in the area – including Amartya Sen who served as Adviser to the Chair – and is a highly […]
Read moreA couple of days ago, I took part in a TV Ontario panel about sales-tax harmonization. I emphasized a couple of points that will be familiar to readers of this blog. First, harmonization is unlikely to have much effect on capital investment because many capital goods are already exempt from the existing provincial sales tax. Second, if the principle is […]
Read more