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In the context of student protests over Quebec tuition fees, my friend Luan Ngo has just written a very informative blog post on Quebec’s fiscal situation. While I encourage readers to read his full post, I do want to use the present space to make mention of three important points he makes: -On a per [...]
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank of Canada, budgets, Conservative government, corporate income tax, debt, deficits, economic crisis, economic growth, economic literacy, economic models, economic thought, education, equalization, financial crisis, fiscal federalism, fiscal policy, heterodox economics, inflation, interest rates, macroeconomics, monetary policy, post-secondary education, progressive economic strategies, Quebec, social policy, student movement, user fees.
April 28th, 2012
Comments: 17
Canada’s business press has recently been filled with speculation that the Bank of Canada may soon hike interest rates based on its somewhat more optimistic economic outlook. But today’s Consumer Price Index report indicates that there is no need to raise interest rates. Statistics Canada reported that both headline and core inflation fell to 1.9% [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, OECD, Ontario, StatCan.
April 20th, 2012
Comments: 4
Statistics Canada reported today that consumer prices edged up by 0.1% in February on a seasonally-adjusted basis, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.6% and the core inflation rate to 2.3%. These rates are within the Bank of Canada’s target range and should allow it to keep interest rates low, which would be appropriate given [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, media, Ontario, Quebec, StatCan, wages.
March 23rd, 2012
Comments: 1
Statistics Canada reported today that consumer prices jumped in January (by 0.4% or 0.5% seasonally-adjusted), offsetting the drop in December. As a result, the annual inflation rate is now 2.5% and the Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate is 2.1%. Monetary Policy Both measures are well within the central bank’s target range, which should allow [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under Don Drummond, inflation, interest rates, StatCan, wages.
February 17th, 2012
Comments: 5
The top story in the Globe and Mail today reports on something I warned about a year ago: Statistics Canada is making changes to the way it calculates the Consumer Price Index. At that time I suspected changes to calculations of the CPI would be introduced as part of the renewal of the inflation target with [...]
Posted by Toby Sanger under inflation, wages.
February 13th, 2012
Comments: 13
Statistics Canada reported today that consumer prices decreased in December, lowering the annual inflation rate to 2.3%. The Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate declined to 1.9%. Tame inflation leaves room to lower interest rates. If unemployment continues to rise, the Bank of Canada should reduce interest rates to boost the economy and create jobs. [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under housing, inflation, media, monetary policy, StatCan.
January 20th, 2012
Comments: 8
The December issue of the quarterly Economic Climate for Bargaining publication I produce is now on-line. This issue has a number of pieces on issues of inequality, including: Rising inequality is hurting our economy Labour rights, unions and the 99% Canadian economy bleeding jobs; public sector cuts to intensify Recession and cuts hit Aboriginal and [...]
Posted by Toby Sanger under Don Drummond, economic growth, inequality, inflation, productivity, unions, wages.
December 23rd, 2011
Comments: none
Statistics Canada reported today that the annual inflation rate remained 2.9% and the Bank of Canada’s core rate remained 2.1% in November. The monthly increase in consumer prices slowed to 0.1% in November from 0.3% in October. The monthly increase in core prices slowed to 0.1% in November from 0.2% in October. Inflation remains modest [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under fiscal federalism, inflation, monetary policy, wages.
December 20th, 2011
Comments: none
Many long-held tenets of neoclassical orthodoxy have fallen by the wayside in the past 3 years, but perhaps one of the biggest dominos that is at least teetering precariously (if not fully tipped over) is the consensus that inflation targeting should be the exclusive focus of monetary policy.
Posted by Jim Stanford under inflation, monetary policy.
November 18th, 2011
Comments: 5
So, the 2% inflation target has been renewed as it now stands. (Take that, House of Commons Finance Committee, which is holding hearings on the issue next week.) The background report from the Bank of Canada is pretty self-congratulatory, though it does somewhat revise the current regime to underline the point that monetary policy also [...]
Posted by Andrew Jackson under inflation.
November 9th, 2011
Comments: 21
In an earlier post, Marc Lee mentioned in passing the German hyperinflation episode of the 1920s. It’s remarkable that this event still holds such sway over the popular imagination despite other more recent instances of hyperinflation. Certainly, the imagery is powerful: German citizens pushing wheelbarrows full of worthless paper money around for everyday purchases, banknotes [...]
Posted by Arun DuBois under budgets, debt, deficits, economic history, Europe, fiscal policy, inflation, monetary policy.
August 19th, 2011
Comments: 10
The December 2010 issue of the quarterly Economic Climate for Bargaining publication that I produce is now on CUPE’s website in both English and French. In each issue I summarize developments and trends for the economy, labour markets, inflation and wages, and also include short pieces of 1-2 pages on related topical issues. In this issue, the focus [...]
Posted by Toby Sanger under corporate income tax, household debt, inflation, labour market, monetary policy, public services, taxation, wages.
December 23rd, 2010
Comments: none
Here’s a new take on bringing economic theory to the masses — a rap battle between Keynes and Hayek. What’s amazing about it is the amount of solid (if not plain nerdy) content this video packs into such a short time. It’s fun to watch for sure (very high production values), but you get that [...]
Posted by Iglika Ivanova under economic crisis, economic growth, economic literacy, economic thought, fiscal policy, free markets, history of economic thought, industrial policy, inflation, interest rates, investment, labour adjustment, labour market, macroeconomics, media, monetary policy, prices, progressive economic strategies, public sector procurement, recession, Role of government, stimulus, unemployment, wages.
October 12th, 2010
Comments: 3
Today’s Consumer Price Index release told a tale of two inflations. The national rate decreased from 1.8% to 1.7% while Ontario’s inflation rate remained at 2.9%, the highest in Canada. Monetary Policy Of course, monetary policy should reflect the whole country. The national inflation rate decreasing to 1.7% in August begs the question of why [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, monetary policy, Ontario, StatCan, wages.
September 21st, 2010
Comments: 5
This morning, Statistics Canada reported that the implementation of Harmonized Sales Tax in Ontario and British Columbia helped drive the national inflation rate from 1.0% in June to 1.8% in July. By comparison, the Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate (which excludes tax changes and volatile items) edged down from 1.7% to 1.6%. However, annual [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under consumers, HST, inflation, media, monetary policy, StatCan.
August 20th, 2010
Comments: 21
Between May and June, consumer prices decreased in both absolute and seasonally-adjusted terms. As a result, the annual inflation rate fell to 1.0%, about half what it had been at the start of this year. One province, Manitoba, actually slipped into deflation. The Bank of Canada’s core rate edged down to 1.7%. Monetary Policy Inflation’s [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, media, monetary policy, StatCan, wages.
July 23rd, 2010
Comments: none
Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates ahead of its original schedule to head off inflation. Some commentators are calling for further rate hikes in the near future. But today’s Consumer Price Index suggests that inflation is not an impending threat. Adjusting for seasonal factors, consumer prices were lower in May than [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, StatCan.
June 22nd, 2010
Comments: 3
This morning, Statistics Canada reported that the annual inflation rate rose to 1.8% in April. Inflation and Wages While inflation remains low, it is eating up almost all of the modest wage increases that workers have eked out over the past year. The Labour Force Survey indicates that the average hourly wage rose by 2.0% [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, StatCan.
May 21st, 2010
Comments: 4
Mark Carney saw a bogeyman on Tuesday morning. He was spooked into removing his conditional commitment to hold interest rates, which would otherwise have expired at the end of June. By signalling that it might raise interest rates ahead of schedule, the central bank drove the Canadian dollar from 98 US cents on Monday to [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, interest rates, media, monetary policy, StatCan.
April 23rd, 2010
Comments: 11
The main question about this morning’s Consumer Price Index is whether it will propel the Canadian dollar to parity with the American dollar. Higher inflation would increase the chances of our central bank raising interest rates sooner rather than later. Higher interest rates would make the loonie a more attractive holding for international financiers. In [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under BC, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, Olympics.
March 19th, 2010
Comments: 4
Wages had seemed to be one of the relative bright spots during the economic crisis. Despite the carnage in Canada’s job market, average hourly earnings held up fairly well. However, comparing today’s Consumer Price Index release for January with the Labour Force Survey for that month reveals that inflation exceeded fractional wage gains over the [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, media, StatCan, wages.
February 18th, 2010
Comments: 4
The obvious headline from today’s Statistics Canada release is inflation rising to 1.3% in December, its highest level in almost a year. However, the Consumer Price Index actually decreased between November and December. The overall price level was down 0.3% in absolute terms and 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The annual inflation rate rose only [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under exchange rates, inflation, monetary policy, StatCan.
January 20th, 2010
Comments: 1
The national inflation rate jumped to 1.0% in November from 0.1% in October. As Statistics Canada notes, this apparently large increase is “due primarily to gasoline prices.” Specifically, last month’s gasoline prices are being compared to the depressed gasoline prices of November 2008. Given the changed base of comparison, it is not surprising that the [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, monetary policy, stimulus.
December 17th, 2009
Comments: none
Canada’s extended summer of deflation ended in October, when the national inflation rate rose to 0.1%. This change reflects a lowered base of comparison: the price of gasoline plummeted between September and October of last year. The return of inflation should not be overstated. Today’s inflation rate is barely positive and falls short of the [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under inflation, StatCan, stimulus.
November 18th, 2009
Comments: 7
While some prices rose slightly and others fell slightly between July, August and September, the total Consumer Price Index has remained exactly the same through these months. The annual inflation rate declined by 0.9% in September, tying July for the largest rate decline since 1953. All provinces but Saskatchewan now have negative inflation. While the [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under deflation, exchange rates, inflation, StatCan, stimulus, US.
October 16th, 2009
Comments: 1
This morning’s consumer price figures for August are reminiscent of July. The annual Consumer Price Index decline was 0.8% (compared to 0.9% last month.) With the exception of July, August was the sharpest drop in consumer prices since 1953. In both July and August, eight of ten provinces posted negative inflation rates. The only province [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under deflation, exchange rates, inflation, monetary policy, StatCan, stimulus.
September 17th, 2009
Comments: none
In July, the Consumer Price Index posted an annual decline of 0.9%, the most negative inflation rate since July of 1953. This decline is troubling not only because it is larger than last month’s decline, but also because it is more widespread. Recent decreases in inflation have mainly been driven by lower gasoline prices in [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under deflation, inflation, StatCan, stimulus.
August 19th, 2009
Comments: 3
Deflation is no longer a spectre, but a reality for Canada. This morning, Statistics Canada reported an inflation rate of minus 0.3%. Inflation turning negative was widely predicted, including in my previous comments on the Consumer Price Index. Although not surprising, today’s news has important implications for the debate about further fiscal stimulus. Statistics Canada [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under deflation, inflation, stimulus.
July 17th, 2009
Comments: 3
This morning’s Consumer Price Index data reveals that the national inflation rate fell to 0.1% in May. Four provinces – Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island – posted negative inflation rates. The supposed risk of continuing fiscal and monetary stimulus too long is that they could propel accelerating inflation. The Finance Minister [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under deflation, inflation, StatCan.
June 18th, 2009
Comments: 3
Today’s Consumer Price Index provides an important reminder that, despite expansive monetary policy from central banks and perceived “green shoots” in the economy, deflation remains a more serious risk than rising inflation. In April, the national inflation rate fell to 0.4%. Four provinces – Alberta, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island – posted [...]
Posted by Erin Weir under deflation, inflation, StatCan.
May 20th, 2009
Comments: 4