More than anything else, BC’s carbon tax is the victim of bad timing. Here’s the average gas price in Vancouver over the past year, according to the BC Gas Buddy: Note that the BC Budget, which announced the carbon tax, was tabled on February 19, and the tax was implemented on July 1. In that time, prices at the pump […]
Read moreIn August 2008, ordinary Canadians were squeezed by rising annual inflation and slowing annual wage growth. The decline in consumer prices from July to August 2008 (-0.2%) was smaller than the normal seasonal decline in prices between these months. (On a seasonally-adjusted basis, Statistics Canada estimates that consumer prices rose 0.2%.) Compared to last month, the annual inflation rate edged up […]
Read moreFor a third consecutive announcement, the central bank’s communications department reused the headline, “Bank of Canada keeps overnight rate target at 3 per cent.” This repetition implies that central bankers have not perceived a fundamental shift in the balance of factors considered since they last changed interest rates four and a half months ago. In fact, much has changed in […]
Read moreComparing today’s Consumer Price Index figures for July 2008 with Labour Force Survey figures for the same month reveals that the annual increase in Canada’s average hourly wage (4.0%) barely exceeded the annual increase in Canadian consumer prices (3.4%). As a result, real wages rose by only 0.6% over the past year. In fact, relative to inflation, workers in Ontario […]
Read moreOn the eve of the Beijing Olympics, recognition should certainly go to the scores of workers who toiled to build the stunning spors palaces and who have made China into the economic powerhouse it is today. Instead, many have received layoff notices and warnings to leave the Chinese capital, as the New York Times reported today. A remarkable 4 million […]
Read moreMichael Masters’ recent testimony before the US Congress is being widely cited in support of the proposition that speculation is having a big impact on upward and downward movements in commodity prices. As a long-standing futures market insider, he argues quite persuasively that institutional investors such as hedge funds have entered commodities futures markets in a huge way – a […]
Read moreThis morning, Statistics Canada released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Inflation driven by commodity prices justifies higher wages, but should not prompt the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates. Inflation and Wages Rising consumer prices nullified most of the wage gains that Canadian workers made during the last year. From June 2007 through June 2008, consumer prices […]
Read moreThis morning, the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged. It should have cut interest rates because Canada’s slowing economy and overvalued currency are more serious problems than the spectre of inflation. Stimulus Needed Last week’s Labour Force Survey indicated that Canada lost 39,000 full-time jobs in June, pushing unemployment to its highest level in nearly two years. Statistics Canada’s […]
Read moreHigher oil and natural gas prices are here to stay and that may be a good thing in terms of helping us move to a more energy-efficient economy and averting catastrophic climate change. But we need a plan to safeguard jobs and the living standards of working families in the transition. Rather than leave it all to the market, we […]
Read moreCUPE has published the June 2008 issue of the Economic Climate for Bargaining publication that I put together on a quarterly basis. Previous issues are also available through this link at our website.   In addition to regular items on national and provincial economic forecasts and analysis of recent employment, inflation and wage developments, this latest issue includes: A very brief primer on […]
Read moreIt is disappointing that the Bank of Canada left the Bank Rate unchanged today at 3%. Many economists had expected a quarter point interest rate cut today, on top of the half point cut announced on April 22nd. The job market has clearly continued to weaken over the past two months because of the high Canadian dollar and the manufacturing […]
Read moreThis morning’s Consumer Price Index release reveals that, in March, annual inflation fell to 1.4% and annual core inflation fell to 1.3%. The fact that both rates are well below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target gives it ample room to cut interest rates next week. Even the two highest-inflation provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, are no longer much above the […]
Read moreToday’s Consumer Price Index numbers indicate that, while gasoline prices and mortgage-interest costs edged-up overall inflation in November, core inflation declined again. When it fell last month, some commentators responded that “one month does not make a trend.” However, as Statistics Canada itself noted, a fairly clear trend has emerged: However, the Bank of Canada’s core index, used to monitor […]
Read moreWith core inflation running at 2.2%, the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged today – despite the soaring Canadian dollar and its impacts on the struggling manufacturing sector, despite a slowing US economy, and despite tight credit market conditions. I think the Bank should have matched the recent half percentage point US rate cut to take the froth out […]
Read moreStatsCan reported last Friday that, based on data from the Labour Force Survey, hourly wages were up by 4.2% September, 2006 to September, 2007, the biggest monthly increase since the Survey began collecting wage data in 2007. With inflation running at 1.7%, it’s no wonder that news of a real wage increase of 2.5% in the context of a national […]
Read moreThere’s a piece by Heather Scoffield in today’s Globe on the issue of the impact of exchange rate appreciation on consumer prices. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070920.wdollar20/BNStory/Front TD Bank argues that only a modest portion of the fall in import prices is being passed on, while Philip Cross from Statscan argues there is a much tighter link. On the face of it, he has […]
Read moreI have just returned from the annual conference of the Canadian Association for Business Economics in Kingston. On Monday evening, we heard from Pierre Duguay, a Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada. Without specifically mentioning Jim’s Globe column, he suggested that some people mistook the Bank’s intervention in financial markets as a deviation from monetary policy’s exclusive focus on […]
Read moreWhereas Jim Stanford’s latest Globe column argues that central banks should be as willing to intervene on behalf of manufacturing as on behalf of hedge funds, Andrew Coyne’s column in today’s National Post argues that central banks should intervene as little as possible and not bail anyone out. At least Coyne’s position is consistent and avoids the double standard identified […]
Read moreFurther to Erin’s post on the odd fluctuations in the monthly inflation rate, a better approach is to look at year-to-date averages in order to smooth out these monthly fluctuations. For the first six months of 2007, the average CPI was 111.05, and for the first six months of 2006, 108.87. This works out to an first-half of 2007 inflation […]
Read moreA month ago, I noted that if the Core Consumer Price Index remained unchanged from May to June 2007, the annual core-inflation rate would jump to 2.5% because this Index had fallen from May to June 2006. Today’s release from Statistics Canada reveals that this is exactly what happened. Since the monthly Index remained constant at 109.9, the annual rate […]
Read moreDespite our protests on this blog, and Erin Weir chaining himself to the central staircase of the Bank of Canada, our hawks at the Bank raised interest rates today. That is, it raised the overnight rate by a quarter point to 4.5%. The Bank’s press release is a bit unusual in that there is no obvious reason why this move […]
Read moreThe following excerpt is from the much-reported study released by CIBC last week: The Bank of Canada, eying an economy operating above its non-inflationary speed limit, will welcome the dampening influence of an even stronger currency on both economic growth and inflation. A couple hundred thousand additional factory job losses, while far from derailing domestic economic growth, might be a […]
Read moreThe “core inflation” rate’s jump to 2.5% for April 2007 (released in May 2007) was great cause for concern among many economic pundits and seemed to prompt the Bank of Canada’s announcement that it intends to raise interest rates. Of course, 2.5% must be regarded as quite moderate inflation and falls well within the Bank’s own 1%-3% range. However, this […]
Read moreRelative to inflation, Albertans are being paid less per hour than they were a year ago. Today, Statistics Canada released Consumer Price Index figures for May 2007. Comparing these figures with the latest Labour Force Survey reveals that Canadian wages grew only 0.8% more than Canadian prices from May 2006 through May 2007. As always, the national figure masks significant […]
Read moreIn the Globe and Mail it is reported: A flurry of increases in the past month has sent Canadian mortgage rates to their highest level in more than five years, and consumers shouldn’t expect a return to the low interest rates they enjoyed in the first half of the decade. The story quotes Benjamin Tal of CIBC World Markets, commenting […]
Read moreIn assessing the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report, John McCallum asked whether “the budget, with its large increase in spending, might be contributing to an overheating of the economy at this time?” Similarly, in commenting on the Labour Force Survey, Doug Porter of BMO seemed concerned that a supposedly tight labour market and higher wages would spur inflation. Today’s […]
Read moreAlbertans are being paid less per hour, on average, than they were a year ago. It seems that the resource boom has increased prices more than wages in that province. Relative to inflation, wages also fell slightly in Ontario. Today, Statistics Canada released April’s Consumer Price Index. Although inflation is down slightly and wages were up in the last Labour […]
Read moreFollowing the lead of several American municipalities, Maryland has become the first state to mandate a “living wage” for government contractors. Larger businesses working on larger contracts will have to pay at least $11.30/hour in urban areas and $8.50/hour in rural areas. While this bill is no substitute for an adequate minimum wage covering all workers, it is a positive […]
Read moreOther than the occasional call for Canada to adopt the US dollar, discussion of Canadian monetary policy mainly consists of the C. D. Howe Institute and the Bank of Canada praising inflation targeting. As Thomas Palley reminds us, another perspective exists: The Case Against Inflation Targeting A few months ago the Federal Reserve seemed to be inexorably moving toward adopting […]
Read moreThomas Palley credibly suggests that the Bush White House has been driving up oil prices by expanding this reserve, but then lowering them during American elections by depleting the reserve. I have also heard suggestions that the Clinton White House depleted the reserve at election time, but am not sure whether it expanded the reserve outside of elections. Manipulating the Reserve by Thomas […]
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