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In September, I expressed my concerns that the new Canada Child Benefit (CCB) may not be responsible for a 40% reduction in child poverty as claimed by the Minister of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC). Using Statcan’s tax modelling software SPSD/M, I calculated that you’d get a 14% drop in child poverty due to […]
Over at the web site of the Calgary Homeless Foundation, I’ve written a blog post about Canada’s National Housing Strategy consultations. The link to the blog post is here. Points raised in the blog post include the following: -In Canada, public social spending as a percentage of our GDP is well below the OECD average. […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under aboriginal peoples, Alberta, Conservative government, federal budget, fiscal federalism, homeless, housing, Indigenous people, poverty, Role of government, social policy.
September 8th, 2016
Over at the Behind the Numbers web site, Allan Moscovitch, David Macdonald and I have a blog post titled “Ten Things to Know About Federal Income Support for Low-Income Seniors in Canada.” The blog post argues—among other things—that if the age of eligibility for Old Age Security were to move from 65 to 67, the […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under aboriginal peoples, budgets, Canada, Conservative government, CPP, demographics, economic history, election 2015, federal budget, Federal elections 2015, fiscal federalism, Harper economics, income distribution, income support, Indigenous people, inequality, labour market, Old Age Security, older workers, pensions, population aging, poverty, retirement, Role of government, seniors, social policy.
August 29th, 2016
Do you ever lie awake wondering what it is that Finance Canada, the Privy Council Office and Treasury Board Secretariat actually do? Well, wonder no more my friends! Over at the web site of the Calgary Homeless Foundation, I’ve written a blog post titled “Ten things to know about central agencies in Canada.” Here’s the […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under budgets, Canada, democracy, economic literacy, economic risk, federal budget, fiscal policy, progressive economic strategies, public services, regulation, Regulations, Role of government, social policy.
August 8th, 2016
Over at the web site of the Calgary Homeless Foundation, I have a blog post titled: “Ten things to know about the 2016-17 Alberta budget.” The link to the post is here.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Alberta, budgets, carbon pricing, child benefits, climate change, corporate income tax, debt, demographics, energy, environment, federal budget, health care, homeless, housing, HST, income support, income tax, inflation, population aging, poverty, public services, seniors, social policy, taxation.
May 3rd, 2016
The unemployment rate is up again this month, to 7.3%, with 1.4 million workers looking for jobs in February. A loss of full-time work was partly replaced by part time positions. A disproportionate percentage of last year’s growth came from precarious self-employment. Remember those heady days when we could say that at least Canada’s unemployment […]
This is the time of year when articles list their favourite things about last year, and their “things to watch” for the next year. Naturally, my “things to watch” list will always include the labour market. Where have we seen the strongest job growth or worst job losses, and what are the trends that might […]
This week Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are trumpeting the announcement of a small surplus ($1.9 billion) for fiscal 2014-15.Â The political symbolism of this “good news” is a welcome change for them from a string of negative economic reports (most importantly, news that Canada slipped into recession in the first half of 2015) that has damaged […]
Here’s a link to theÂ longer analysis I prepared of the federal budget, now on-line at CUPE’s website, to accompany the press release and notes we put out immediately following the budget. The entire document may be too long to post here, so here’s the 1st two paragraphs. The Big Picture: more tax cuts for the […]
With a document whose very timing, let alone content, was so transparently politicized and manipulative, it’s hard to even know where to start.Â Among the many galling, short-sighted, and ultimately destructive components of this federal budget, here are 5 that stand out in my view:
THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND CANADA’S ANNUS HORRIBILIS See Original post here for the CBC. Canada’s Finance Minister Joe Oliver announced a new â€“ and long overdue â€“ federal budget for April 21. With the Canadian economy doing so badly, this budget will be crucial. Will the minister do the right thing and give Canadians a […]
Posted earlier as an opinion piece for CBC.Â See original post here (this post slightly modified from original) By Louis-Philippe Rochon Follow him on Twitter @Lprochon Much was at stake earlier this week when finance ministers fromÂ G20Â countries met in Istanbul to discuss Greece and the state of the world economy in light of recent […]
Posted by Louis-Philippe Rochon under Austerity, Conservative government, deficits, economic crisis, economic growth, federal budget, Federal elections 2015, financial crisis, fiscal policy, G-20, heterodox economics.
February 15th, 2015
In a recent CBC blog post, Louis-Philippe Rochon assesses the current state of the Canadian economy. The link to the blog post is here. Follow him on Twitter @Lprochon.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank of Canada, budgets, China, Conservative government, deficits, economic crisis, economic growth, employment, exchange rates, federal budget, fiscal policy, global crisis, household debt, IMF, interest rates, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy, recession, stimulus, unemployment.
February 5th, 2015
Acres of newsprint have been devoted in recent weeks to the possibility that lower oil prices might push the federal budget back into a deficit position.Â As I argue in my column in today’s Globe and Mail, this drama is mostly political theatre — and progressives should be cautious about accidentally accepting the Conservative frame […]
Louis-Philippe Rochon has written a provocative blog post for the CBC titled “Top 10 Economic Predictions for 2015.” The post is available here.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank of Canada, banks, budgets, Conservative government, consumers, deficits, economic growth, economic models, economic thought, employment, Europe, exchange rates, federal budget, fiscal policy, household debt, housing, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, oil and gas, prices, Role of government, social indicators, tar sands, US.
January 11th, 2015
Much has been made about Stephen Poloz’s decision to abandon ‘forward guidance’ in Bank of Canada rate setting announcements for the time being. Critics bemoan the loss of direction from the Bank. But Poloz’s comments yesterday were chock full of guidance on how the Bank sees Canada’s economic situation. Having been disappointed by the failure […]
Todayâ€™s National Balance Sheet Accounts indicate that the amount of cash held by private non-financial corporations in Canada soared from $591 billion in the third quarter of 2013 to $626 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013. Corporate Canadaâ€™s accumulated stock of cash now exceeds the federal governmentâ€™s accumulated deficit, which was $612 billion at […]
This blogâ€™s unofficial slogan has been â€œTomorrowâ€™s conventional wisdom, today.â€ After this weekâ€™s Conservative backpedalingÂ on income splitting, we may need to change it to â€œTodayâ€™s conventional wisdom, seven years ago.â€ Or we could just stick with â€œYou read it here first.â€ My first-ever blog post, Income Splitting Redux, argued that this tax policy â€œwould benefit […]
Recessions are always harder on young workers, but we are nearly five years out from the end of the last recession and there is still no recovery in sight for young workers. The paid internships announced in this budget (some of which is previously announced spending) will only reach a maximum of 2,500 individuals per […]
Here’s the first section of the budget summary and analysis I’ve prepared for CUPE. The full version is on-line on CUPE’s website at http://cupe.ca/economics/missing-action-federal-budget-2014 together with CUPE’s press release at: http://cupe.ca/economics/federal-budget-2014-help-hurt-canadian Missing In Action: Federal Budget 2014Â CUPE Federal Budget 2014 Summary and ResponseÂ Â Conservatives ignore pressing economic needs with a Do-little budget Using more […]
UPDATE (Feb. 12): Carol Goar reports this statement on page A17 of todayâ€™s Toronto Star. To add your signatureÂ to it, please e-mail your name, title and institution to Mario Seccareccia at firstname.lastname@example.org Statement by 70 Canadian Economists Against Austerity We, the undersigned, strongly urge the federal government to stop implementing fiscal austerity measures just to […]
This is quite interesting. If you read the short section from the recent IMF Staff Report on Canada under point 16, it is quite clear that the IMF Staff think that, with growth significantly under potential, the federal Budget should be brought back to balance more slowly than is now the plan. It strikes me […]
The Parliamentary Budget Office has come out with a report, suggesting that the Conservatives will likely balance the budget ahead of schedule. But, and it’s a big but, if there were no EI surplus, there would be no balanced budget in 2016. And the annual surplus in the EI Operating Account is no small potatoes […]
On November 25th, I made the following submission to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance regarding Bill C-4, Economic Action Plan 2013 Act No. 2, on behalf of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Â Â 1.Â Â Â Â Introduction and Context Thank you for the invitation to appear before the Committee, as Members of Parliament […]
Buried in the federal government’s recentÂ Update of Economic and Fiscal ProjectionsÂ are figures showing the Harper government is set to squeeze federal government’s role to the smallest it has been in seventy years. Â Â (Bill Curry at the Globe also just wroteÂ about this, but without figures further back than 1958). Total federal government spending as a share […]
Today, finance minister Jim Flaherty announced a three-year freeze on Employment Insurance (EI) premiums, ostensibly because a stronger job market has alleviated the need for additional premium revenue. Under the current policy, employee premiums were rising each year by 5 cents per $100 earned. Flaherty had announced this policy on September 30, 2010, when 1.5 […]
The Queen Cityâ€™s water debate has boiled over since I last blogged about it. City Council decided to build a new wastewater-treatment facility as a public-private partnership (P3), but a group of concerned citizens gathered 24,000 signatures to force a referendum on whether to â€œpublicly finance, operate and maintain the new wastewater treatment plant for […]
Tom Mulcairâ€™s recently reiterated unwillingness to raise personal tax rates puts the spotlight on corporate taxes. But how much revenue is at stake? Three and a half years ago, I posted a fiscal breakdown of Harperâ€™s corporate tax cuts and how much revenue could be retained by stopping or reversing them. These figures, based on […]
Regina City Council has voted to proceed with a 30-year public-private partnership (P3) in which a private company would design, build, finance, operate and maintain the cityâ€™s new waste water treatment facility. The municipal administrationâ€™s rationale has been that, although a P3 will be more expensive than traditional public financing, it is required to access […]
One the most amazing things about this budget is that one of its three focuses will actually be the opposite of what itâ€™s touting.Â Youâ€™ll likely hear that $14 billion will be spent on infrastructure over the next 10 years (actually you may hear much bigger numbers but they just re-announce existing programs like the […]