PEF home page and weblog
I have an opinion piece on Saskatchewan’s recent budget in the Regina Leader-Post. Points raised in the opinion piece include the following: -Reductions in personal and corporate income taxes help the rich more than the poor (and this budget cut both personal and corporate income taxes). -Increases in sales tax hurt the poor more than […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under aboriginal peoples, Austerity, budgets, Child Care, corporate income tax, debt, deficits, economic growth, economic models, economic thought, employment, fiscal policy, health care, income, income distribution, income support, income tax, Indigenous people, inequality, NEO-LIBERAL POLICIES, population aging, post-secondary education, poverty, public infrastructure, public services, Saskatchewan, social policy, taxation, unemployment.
April 23rd, 2017
This year’s Alternative Federal Budget (AFB) was released on March 9. I was proud to be the primary author of its housing chapter (that chapter is available in English here and in French here). The first AFB exercise began in 1994, with the first AFB being published in 1995. That involved a joint effort between […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under aboriginal peoples, Alberta, Austerity, Bank of Canada, banks, BC, budgets, debt, deficits, democracy, economic crisis, economic growth, economic history, economic literacy, economic models, economic thought, employment, federal budget, feminist economics, fiscal policy, gender critique, housing, income distribution, income tax, Indigenous people, inequality, inflation, interest rates, labour market, macroeconomics, Manitoba, monetary policy, NDP, NEO-LIBERAL POLICIES, Nova Scotia, Ontario, party politics, poverty, progressive economic strategies, public infrastructure, public services, Quebec, Role of government, Saskatchewan, social policy, stimulus, taxation, unemployment, women.
March 20th, 2017
An Alberta-based volunteer working group, of which I’m a part, recently released a document titled Foundations for an Alberta Alternative Budget (for media coverage, see this Metro article). Working group members include staff from Alberta’s non-profit sector, labour movement and advocacy sector. While our long-term goal is to emulate the great work of the Alternative […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under Alberta, child benefits, Child Care, deficits, Dutch disease, education, employment, environment, fiscal policy, health care, homeless, housing, income support, income tax, industrial policy, macroeconomics, oil and gas, poverty, progressive economic strategies, public infrastructure, public services, regulation, resources, social policy, taxation, unemployment, unions.
March 15th, 2017
This fall, Canada’s Parliament will debate a proposal to expand the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). And over at the Behind the Numbers web site, I’m co-author of a blog post titled “Ten things to know about the CPP debate.” The blog post’s other co-authors are Allan Moscovitch and Richard Lochead. Points raised in the blog […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under Austerity, CPP, demographics, employment, income, income support, inequality, labour market, media, OECD, Old Age Security, older workers, part time work, pensions, population aging, poverty, privatization, progressive economic strategies, retirement, Role of government, self-employed, seniors, small business, social policy, taxation, unions.
October 29th, 2016
Most of the world economy (including Canada’s) has performed sluggishly since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. And many economic and fiscal projections now accept this pattern of slow growth as more-or-less inevitable, as a “new normal.” This argument is typically invoked to justify a ratcheting down of expectations regarding job prospects, incomes, and public […]
This is the time of year when articles list their favourite things about last year, and their “things to watch” for the next year. Naturally, my “things to watch” list will always include the labour market. Where have we seen the strongest job growth or worst job losses, and what are the trends that might […]
This afternoon I gave a presentation at Raising the Roofâ€™s Child & Family Homelessness Stakeholder Summit in Toronto. My slide deck can be downloaded here. To accompany the presentation, Iâ€™ve prepared the following list of â€œTen Things to Know About Homelessness in Canada.â€ 1.Efforts to enumerate persons experiencing homeless have generally been spotty, but it […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under aboriginal peoples, Alberta, Canada, cities, demographics, employment, Employment Insurance, fiscal policy, homeless, housing, income, income support, Indigenous people, labour market, macroeconomics, municipalities, Nunavut, Ontario, population aging, poverty, seniors, social policy, taxation, Toronto, unemployment.
September 17th, 2015
Here is the link to buy a new book, Canada After Harper,Â edited by Ed Finn and with an introduction by Ralph Nader, just published by Lorimer. Most Canadians know that Stephen Harper has had a tremendous impact on the country since becoming prime minister in 2006. But few have the in-depth knowledge of how […]
It’s only been a couple of weeks since Disney, that most iconic of American companies, moved to displace all its home grown techies with low-cost foreign temporary workers. But the company had to beat a hasty retreat in the face of an outpouring of criticism. Amid the deluge of commentary this story triggered about where […]
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under Conservative government, demographics, economic growth, employment, globalization, immigration, labour adjustment, labour market, migrant workers, population aging, skill shortages.
July 7th, 2015
What follow is a guest blog post from Glenn Burley: – If Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) and professional fields like medicine, law, and dentistry are the so-called golden ticket to a good job in todayâ€™s labour market, what does that say about the current and future health of our economy? The myth of […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under education, employment, inequality, Job vacanices, labour market, post-secondary education, skill shortages, student debt, unemployment, user fees, wages, young workers.
July 3rd, 2015
In our Climate Justice Project, ourÂ research has stressed structural changes and collective action to lower carbon footprints rather than individual behavioural change. The ability of many actors to respond to incentives like a carbon taxÂ is constrained by their circumstances. Suburban households often have no realistic option but to keep driving. Renters have little agency over […]
2015 marks the sixth year of BC’s recovery from the recession. But it’s been a slow and largely jobless recovery in BC. 1. BC needs 93,000 more jobs to return to our pre-recession employment rate (the proportion of working age British Columbians who have jobs). Only 71.2% of working age British Columbians have jobs today.Â This […]
Jason Kenney has been promoted to Minister of National Defence, andÂ Pierre Poilievre has been tapped to replace him at Employment and Social Development Canada. Sigh. It seems like such a short time ago that I railed against Jason Kenney’s first tweet as Minister of ESDC. At least Kenney’s tweet had something to do with employment […]
This guest blog post has been written by Louis-Philippe Rochon. You can follow him on Twitter @Lprochon – Harperâ€™s recent incarnation as an anti-terrorist crusader has caught many Canadians by surprise. Harper is spending considerable political energy beating the drums of war against terrorists, and introducing a far-reaching, and much condemned, bill aimed at restricting […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank of Canada, banks, China, Conservative government, economic crisis, economic growth, employment, exchange rates, financial markets, GDP, global crisis, interest rates, international trade, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy, recession, Role of government, unemployment, US.
February 6th, 2015
In a recent CBC blog post, Louis-Philippe Rochon assesses the current state of the Canadian economy. The link to the blog post is here. Follow him on Twitter @Lprochon.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank of Canada, budgets, China, Conservative government, deficits, economic crisis, economic growth, employment, exchange rates, federal budget, fiscal policy, global crisis, household debt, IMF, interest rates, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy, recession, stimulus, unemployment.
February 5th, 2015
The Bank of Canada surprised most analysts this week when it decided to cut rates by 25 basis points. The move comes after the price of oil has tumbled below $50 / barrel, oil producers announced huge cuts to business investment for 2015, Target announced a mass layoff of 17,600 workers in Canada, and the […]
Posted by Angella MacEwen under Bank of Canada, budgets, Conservative government, Dutch disease, employment, interest rates, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy.
January 22nd, 2015
Louis-Philippe Rochon has written a provocative blog post for the CBC titled “Top 10 Economic Predictions for 2015.” The post is available here.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank of Canada, banks, budgets, Conservative government, consumers, deficits, economic growth, economic models, economic thought, employment, Europe, exchange rates, federal budget, fiscal policy, household debt, housing, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, oil and gas, prices, Role of government, social indicators, tar sands, US.
January 11th, 2015
Last week my Unifor colleague Jordan Brennan and I published a study through the CCPA Ontario office examining the historical empirical evidence regarding the link betweenÂ changes in minimum wages and employment outcomes.Â We find there is no robust evidence in Canadian historical data that increases in real minimum wages cause either lower employment or higher […]
This morning the Social Research and Demonstration Corporation released a new report about “motivational interviewing” for welfare recipients.Â The link to the full report is here, and the link to the executive summary is here. Authored by Reuben Ford, Jenn Dixon, Shek-wai Hui, Isaac Kwakye and Danielle Patry, the study reports on a recent randomized […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under BC, Conservative government, employment, immigration, income, income support, Indigenous people, Job vacanices, labour market, migrant workers, poverty, skill shortages, social policy, temporary workers, unemployment, wages, workplace benefits.
September 11th, 2014
Today Statistics Canada released their first set of job numbers since the ‘oops’ of July 2014. And the news was dismal. The labour market shed 112,000 private sector positions, the largest single month drop in the private sector since, well, forever. Coming on the heels of a mistake is unfortunate, but you have to think […]
What a rough week it’s been over at Statistics Canada.Â It’s a world-renowned statistical agency — though its lustre has been tarnished in recent years by budget cuts, cancelled data programs and series, and the nonsense of the Harper government’s libertarian crusade against the long form census.Â The problems this week around its Labour Force […]
Statistics Canada’s release of job numbers for June look truly dismal. The unemployment rate rose to 7.1%, and there was a loss of 9,400 jobs compared to May. Â Year over year, employment rose by only 72,000. That’s a weak 0.4% and the lowest year-over-year increase since February 2010. An even worse sign – all of […]
Erin has already commented that the tiny silver lining of 26,000 net new jobs in May covers a net loss of full-time jobs. In fact, if you compare this May to May 2013, we see that all of the net job gain in the past 12 months is part-time work too. To look at the […]
The controversy regarding the mathematical errors in the Ontario PCsâ€™ â€œmillion jobs planâ€ went viral last week, after a critical mass of economists weighed in to confirm that the party had indeed badly misinterpreted the findings (by as much as 8 times over) of their own consultantsâ€™ studies.Â This sparked a firestorm of media coverage, […]
Further to my post yesterday about how the Ontario PCs have vastly overstated their own consultants’ estimates of theÂ number of jobs produced by their various policy proposals (including lower corporate taxes, lower electricity prices, interprovincial free trade, and regulatory reduction), some have asked me about precisesly how the Conference Board report simulated the corporate tax […]
Yesterday I blogged about rental housing in Yellowknife, over at the Northern Public Affairs web site.Â Specifically, I blogged about a recent announcement by the city’s largest for-profit landlord that it plans to “tighten” its policies vis-a-vis renting to recipients of “income assistance” (which, in most parts of Canada, is known generically as social assistance).Â […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under aboriginal peoples, Canada's North, competition, Conservative government, corporate profits, employment, Employment Insurance, free markets, homeless, housing, income support, Indigenous people, Northwest Territories, P3s, poverty, prices, privatization, Real Estate, regulation, Role of government, social policy, unemployment.
May 24th, 2014
When Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak kicked off the current election campaign with a plan to “create a million new jobs” in Ontario, he tried to dress up theÂ platform launch with a certain scientific respectability.Â The party released a “technical backgrounder” showing the precise composition of the million new jobs, along with two commissioned consultants’ […]
Today the Ontario Federation of Labour and CUPE Ontario published calculations I preparedÂ of how Ontario Conservative leader Tim Hudak’sÂ promise to eliminateÂ 100,000 public sector jobs will be felt at the local level, on cities and communities across the province. The originalÂ OFL release provides info on the magnitude of these impacts for the 15 largest census metropolitan […]
My post last week on the continuing decline in the employment rate in Canada (to below 61.5% in April, barely higher than the low point reached in the 2008-09 recession) has sparked some continuing discussion about the role of demographic change in explaining that decline (as opposed to a shortage of labour demand). Is the […]
Today’s labour force numbers are ugly, there’s no other word for it.Â Employment down 29,000 jobs.Â Paid employment (ie. not counting self-employment) down 46,000 jobs.Â The only reason the unemployment rate held steady (at 6.9%) is because labour force participation fell again: by almost 2 tenths of a point, to just over 66%.Â That’s the […]