Real Unemployment Rate = 11.3%

Statistics Canada reported significant employment growth today for the first time in six months. As Andrew has already noted, welcome strength in March does not make up for the five preceding months of stagnation.

Compared to September 2011, full-time employment has increased by 21,900 while Canada’s labour force and population (age 15+) have expanded by 59,100 and 151,000 respectively. Including the March bounce, Canadian employers have not been creating nearly enough jobs to keep pace with workforce and population growth.

Even focusing just on the last month, there was an important regional discrepancy. While employment growth in central Canada drove the national totals, the opposite occurred on both coasts. Employment decreased in half of Canada’s provinces in March.

The official unemployment rate’s drop to 7.2% will undoubtedly garner much attention. But with CANSIM data now freely available, it’s worth emphasizing that Statistics Canada calculates several unemployment rates. The R8 rate, which includes discouraged job seekers, people waiting for jobs and a portion of the part-time workers who cannot get full-time jobs, stood at 11.3% in March.

UPDATE (April 8): Quoted in yesterday’s Hamilton Spectator (page T6)


  • Thanks for that I had not realized that the figures for ALL the unemployed were available. I note that with a son in the 15 – 24 age bracket unable to find work here in Ontario that the unemployment rate in that bracket is 24%. No wonder he is having difficulty!

    Urgent…pass it on….Amdreais taking comments on the budget at the above link

    They hold the balance of power in Ontario…


  • You could request counter cyclical jobs spending…

    Ontario ail have 20 per cent unemployment if we were to allow these cuts to go through..

  • Darn auto correct! Medium term….assuming the Harper cut are far deeper than they are admitting …

    And if we let the McGuinty cuts go through…

    My medium prediction there would be 20 percent real unemployment in Ontario …

    We can stop the Ontario cuts though…if we contact the NDP who have the balance of power and warn them they needed to insist on jobs budget….

    You could contact the Liberals too….

  • Hi Erin,

    I am running a series of numbers that compares a multi-month correlation measure between the R4 or total employment and the R8. (we’ll see which makes more sense) I get any thing from it I will send it to you.

    my personal quote of the day inspired by Jimbo’s piece on facts from the fringe today.

    If you think resource extraction is a sane policy option that will keep Canada vibrant, you are off your f*&king rocker! This country will disintegrate into a provincial melee over the scraps from the carcass faster than you can say the canucks are out of the play offs.

  • so when we add that to the 11% on welfare we have 22.3% less jobs then we need

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