PEF home page and weblog
Over at the web site of the Calgary Homeless Foundation, I’m co-author of a blog post titled “The Federal Role in Poverty Reduction.” Points raised in the blog post include the following: -Canada’s Minister of Families, Children and Social Development has been tasked to lead the development of a Canada Poverty Reduction Strategy. -Total public […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under aboriginal peoples, Balanced budgets, child benefits, Child Care, corporate income tax, CPP, debt, deficits, early learning, economic thought, federal budget, fiscal federalism, fiscal policy, homeless, housing, income distribution, income support, income tax, Indigenous people, inequality, labour market, macroeconomics, OECD, Old Age Security, poverty, privatization, public infrastructure, public services, Role of government, social policy, taxation, women.
February 8th, 2017
This fall, Canada’s Parliament will debate a proposal to expand the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). And over at the Behind the Numbers web site, I’m co-author of a blog post titled “Ten things to know about the CPP debate.” The blog post’s other co-authors are Allan Moscovitch and Richard Lochead. Points raised in the blog […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under Austerity, CPP, demographics, employment, income, income support, inequality, labour market, media, OECD, Old Age Security, older workers, part time work, pensions, population aging, poverty, privatization, progressive economic strategies, retirement, Role of government, self-employed, seniors, small business, social policy, taxation, unions.
October 29th, 2016
This piece was originally published at the Globe and Mail’s online Report on Business feature, EconomyLab. Â There are two reasons why it is difficult to comment on the legacy of a finance minister. 1) It is a tremendously challenging job, anywhere, any time. Stewarding one of the largest economies in the world through a […]
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under budgets, Conservative government, deficits, federalism, fiscal federalism, global crisis, housing, IMF, income distribution, income tax, inequality, macroeconomics, OECD, public infrastructure, Role of government, StatCan, stimulus, taxation, TFSA, World Bank.
March 20th, 2014
Yesterday, Mike Moffatt took to The Globe and Mailâ€™s â€œEconomy Labâ€ in response to my suggestion that the Bank of Canada should moderate the exchange rate. (Perhaps his motive for encouraging me to seek the Saskatchewan NDP leadership was to get me as far as possible from the levers of monetary policy.) 🙂 My rebuttal […]
The just-released OECD Employment Outlook – full text not available on line – has an interesting chapter on the sharp decline of labour’s share of national income in virtually all OECD countries over the past 30 years, and especially the last twenty years. The median labour share in the OECD fell from 66.1% in the […]
Last week, Conservative MP Randy Hoback had another letter in The Prince Albert Daily Herald blaming the NDP for the pulp-mill closure in 2006. He still has not addressed my main point about resource royalties. I have the following response on page 4 of todayâ€™s Herald: Pulp mill saga proves Mulcairâ€™s point Notwithstanding MP Randy […]
Further to my earlier post on the OECD and “Dutch Disease”, I have received a heavily redacted response to an access to information request (A-2012-00073/CN.)Â submitted to the Department of Finance, seeking any comments on the draft assessment and recommendations of the OECD delegation to Canada in 2012. This arrives just as Conservative ads attack […]
Todayâ€™s report that the national inflation rate fell to 1.2% in May deflates calls for higher interest rates to reduce inflation. The central bankâ€™s core rate was 1.8%, also below the 2% target. The other argument for an interest-rate hike was to moderate mortgage lending and the housing market. However, the federal governmentâ€™s move to […]
OECD economist Peter Jarrett – lead on the just released Economic Survey of Canada – agrees with the Mulcair diagnosis.
Today, Statistics Canada reported an annual inflation rate of 2%, precisely in line with the Bank of Canadaâ€™s target. With inflation under control and renewed risks to the global economy, there is little rationale for the central bank to raise interest rates anytime soon. In fact, the Bank of Canada should now be more concerned […]
Canadaâ€™s business press has recently been filled with speculation that the Bank of Canada may soon hike interest rates based on its somewhat more optimistic economic outlook. But todayâ€™s Consumer Price Index report indicates that there is no need to raise interest rates. Statistics Canada reported that both headline and core inflation fell to 1.9% […]
The following note also appears on Business Insider. I owe Paul Tulloch a hat tip for reminding me of these issues in a good comment on my last post. When Ontarioâ€™s Premier recently complained that Canadaâ€™s petro-dollar undermines manufacturing exports, many economists tripped over each other to counter that a strong loonie benefits all Canadians […]
The Harper government announced today that federal â€œregulators will be required to remove at least one regulation each time they introduce a new one that imposes administrative burden on business.â€ At the risk of imposing a proofreading burden on communications staff, that sentence is missing the word â€œan.â€ I first heard this idea at a […]
Further to Toby’s post, the OECD report on inequality is well worth a careful read. It bolsters, through careful empirical and cross country analysis, two key arguments long advanced by the labour movement and progressive economists: -Â key trends in the labour market – widening wage disparity between top earners and the rest, and the […]
Following concern expressed by the IMF, the Conference Board and of course thousands of protesters around the world, the OECD has just released an extensive 400 page report on the problem of growing inequality: Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps on Rising. I haven’t read through it yet, and it also has quite a lot […]
The OECD’s new assessment of the macro-economic situation makes for pretty grim reading. And their forecast of very sluggish global growth (just 1.6% for the OECD area in 2012) is based on an increasingly incredible view that the Eurozone will “muddle through”and experience only a mild recession. They do not seem to have convinced even […]
Further to Jimâ€™s excellent critique of the Ontario Conservative platformâ€™s graphs, I am similarly struck by the Liberal platformâ€™s lone graph. â€œCutting Ontarioâ€™s Taxes on New Business Investment in Halfâ€ (page 25) purports to show that corporate tax cuts are required to get the provinceâ€™s â€œMarginal Effective Tax Rateâ€ below the US and OECD averages. […]
Manufacturing jobs have been declinining as a percentage of total jobs in most OECD countries for several decades, with Ontario being especially hard-hit as a jurisdiction. At the end of the Second World War, manufacturing jobs accounted for 26% of all Canadian jobs; by 2007, this figure had dropped to just 12%. And as I’ve […]
Posted by Nick Falvo under auto industry, Conservative government, education, employment, industrial policy, labour market, manufacturing, NAFTA, OECD, Ontario, post-secondary education, R&D, student debt, unemployment, US, wages.
June 26th, 2011
It has been widely reported in the Globe and elsewhere that Canada ranks #2 in the just-released OECD Better Life Index, outstripped only by Australia. I am all for measures of objective and subjective social well-being that go beyond GDP as a measure of progress, and this OECD report offers up some useful information. But […]
Ten days ago, Jack Mintz released yet another paper claiming that international competitiveness requires continued corporate tax cuts. In addition to the usual questionable interpretations, it featured at least one straight factual error. Mintz inaccurately reports Icelandâ€™s 2010 statutory corporate tax rate as 15% (Table 2 on page 7 and Table 3 on page 9 […]
Advocates of corporate tax cuts like comparing Canada to an unweighted average of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development members. Since the OECD keeps admitting more microscopic economies with very low corporate tax rates, this average keeps falling regardless of whether any country actually lowers its rate. Last yearâ€™s admission of Estonia, Israel and Slovenia […]
Jack Mintz is out today with yet another paper applauding the federal corporate tax cut from 18% in 2010 to 15% in 2012. Revenue Fudge He claims that the revenue loss will be â€œrelatively smallâ€ or â€œrelatively insignificantâ€ without actually suggesting a dollar amount (pages 3 and 20). By comparison, the Department of Finance (see […]
Earlier this month, I attended a very interesting conference on the taxation of multinational corporations. It included a case study of how SABMiller avoids paying tax in Africa. While many of the points presented are undoubtedly familiar to this blogâ€™s readers, the conference put it all together with a clarity that I attempt to reproduce […]
The term â€œAustrian economistsâ€ usually refers to the likes of Hayek, Menger and von Mises. But I recently met some rather different economists from the Austrian Chamber of Labour. Austrian law requires that union members pay dues to the Chamber of Labour, so it is very well-funded for a progressive think tank. Similarly, all Austrian […]
The OECD Economic Survey of Canada (unfortunately only a summary is available on line) was released this week, and its call to impose user fees or deductibles on services covered by Medicare (ie physician and hospital care) received quite a lot of media coverage.Â I saw OECD economist Peter Jarrett doing at least two TV […]
For years we have been asking Stephen Gordon to provide the evidence for lower corporate taxes. Like Stephen I like the Nordic model and take away from it that tax mix matters, so funding a large public sector may require more than taxes on â€œpeople we do not knowâ€ (ie corporations and the rich), so […]
I had the opportunity to meet late last week with the OECD Policy Mission to Canada – the folks who write the country reviews. These meetings are usually interesting and useful, though I find the OECD Economics Department to be ultra neo liberal in their orientation. Even so, I was a bit taken aback to […]
The big news for Canadians from the OECDâ€™s Going for Growth 2010 report was that we should privatize Canada Post. An article in the current issue of Macleanâ€™s (pages 26 and 27), which does not (yet) seem to be available online, sheds some interesting light on that recommendation: [Yvan Guillemette was]Â working for the C. D. […]
The Canadian dollar is again becoming more overvalued. After dipping as low as 92 US cents at the end of October, it rocketed up to 96 US cents so far today. Meanwhile, the OECD has released another month of purchasing-power data. Although the loonieâ€™s average price on foreign-exchange markets edged up between August and September, […]
The OECD released an interesting short report today on how Canada compares to other countries in terms of the job impacts of the crisis. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/62/10/43707194.pdf They project that our unemployment rate will increase by more than in any previous recession to about 10% in 2010 and will likely take a long time to fall. They […]