We are on the edge of disaster without being able to situate it in the future: it is rather always already past. Maurice Blanchot.  Over the last month, I admittedly got so caught up in the rhetorical swirl of the coming disaster that I woke up December 1st expecting statistical confirmation that Canada slipped into recession in 2008 only to […]
Read moreLast week, The Toronto Star ran a front-page story, “Cut tax or risk jobs, banks say,” on the Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) pre-budget submission to Queen’s Park. While acknowledging the elimination of Ontario’s corporate capital tax and the slashing of federal corporate income taxes, the bankers argue that it is also imperative for Ontario to cut its provincial corporate income […]
Read moreIn November, prices fell for a second consecutive month and annual inflation fell for a third consecutive month. The Consumer Price Index declined from 3.5% in August to 3.4% in September, 2.6% in October, and 2.0% in November. A few more months of decline could turn this annual rate negative. While steadily falling prices would be a boon to individual […]
Read moreThe transit strike in Ottawa is now in its second week, and life is horrible. Commuting has turned from frustation to nightmare, especially when snowfall makes things even worse. All of which leads me to the perhaps hugely obvious point that decent transit is self-evidently a very good thing for drivers like me and not just transit users, literally shaving […]
Read morehttp://www.tuac.org/en/public/e-docs/00/00/03/91/document_doc.phtml This is a very useful discussion/policy paper from Pierre Habbard of the Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD. Executive summary 1. The latest phase of the financial crisis that broke out in the summer 2007 was marked by a dramatic turn in mid-September with the collapse of Wall Street, US insurance group AIG, and the subsequent asset destruction […]
Read moreThe transcript of my pre-budget presentation is now available on the Ontario Legislative Assembly website. The content overlaps significantly with two recent posts. My budget-related testimony on the Ontario Health Premium is also online. Again, it reflects material already posted on this blog.
Read moreLabour’s Plan was developed by the CLC in consultation with economists from our affiliates. It has been submitted to all of the party leaders and economic critics. The Summary is followed by elaboration of each of the five main points. (This document does not deal with financial regulation and international economic issues.) http://canadianlabour.ca/sites/clc/files/laboursplanfullEn.pdf
Read moreMy colleague Sylvain Schetagne prepared this Update on Economic Stimulus packages announced as of December 10. Quite a few governments do seem prepared to act on the IMF recommendation to provide significant stimulus, but there’s a wide range of approaches. Introduction Last November, leaders of the world’s 20th largest economies, know as the G20, met in Washington to discuss the […]
Read moreSaturday’s Toronto Star featured the following op-ed from the United Steelworkers’ Ontario-Atlantic Director: Fix EI system to help those who didn’t cause the crisis TheStar.com – Opinion – Fix EI system to help those who didn’t cause the crisis Federal government, coalition or minority, should bolster benefits for the unemployed December 13, 2008 Wayne Fraser As all Canadians familiar with […]
Read moreThe front page of today’s New York Times notes that the United Food and Commercial Workers have organized “the world’s largest hog slaughterhouse” (some 5,000 employees in North Carolina). The front page also features an article on the United Auto Workers’ battle with Southern Republicans over the auto bailout. The second page reports the success of a Chicago plant occupation […]
Read moreLast night, Andrew Coyne prematurely began celebrating the demise of the US auto bailout and proclaimed the death of “any last lingering justification for†a parallel bailout in Canada. Now that American and Canadian governments have committed auto industry support, he pans Canada’s pledge as being “disproportionately large.†(Disproportionate to what, he does not specify.) Coyne links to a CTV […]
Read moreGlobal factors – exchange rates, international trade, and now the credit crisis – have undermined Canadian manufacturing. Since Ontario is Canada’s manufacturing heartland, it suffered a great deal of collateral damage. The conventional view is that the province is caught up in a pan-Canadian crisis rather than in something particular to Ontario. Initially, Quebec suffered proportionally greater losses than Ontario. The most recent […]
Read moreI highly recommend “The Credit Crunch: Housing Bubbles, Globalisation and the Worldwide Economic Crisis” by Graham Turner. “Graham Turner is one of only a handful of economists to understand the roots of the current financial crisis, its implications for all of us and crucially what should be done now. I strongly recommend you read this book.” —Larry Elliott, Guardian “A […]
Read moreThe Bank of Canada got it right this morning in cutting the key interest rate by 0.75%. This bold action makes up for the timidity of cutting by only 0.25% last time. The central bank should be applauded for (finally) recognizing the severity of the economic crisis and going further than recommended by the C. D. Howe Institute’s conservative Monetary Policy […]
Read moreThe Ontario economy fell off a cliff last month as the US meltdown intensfied the already virulent manufacturing and forest jobs crisis. An almost unprecedented 42,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in November in Ontario alone – that’s one in twenty of the total, and more than the total of manufacturing employment in either Oshawa or Windsor. And 20,000 jobs were […]
Read moreThe ever deepening global and national economic crisis has produced highly divergent views among mainstream economists on how radical a change is needed to orthodox fiscal and monetary policies with their focus on balanced budgets and low inflation. At one extreme, the recent Economic and Fiscal Statement indicates that the prevailing Department of Finance view is still that only very […]
Read moreA useful piece from the Caledon Institute – making the case for economic stimulus via targetted increases in and reforms to federal income support programs. http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/727ENG%2Epdf
Read moreEven as Conservatives jettison some of the worst features of Thursday’s economic statement, they appeared on this morning’s TV news programs reiterating that their tax cuts are worth 2% of GDP – the amount of stimulus recommended by the International Monetary Fund. Almost a year ago, Marc began noting the dubiousness of casting tax cuts from the 2007 Economic Statement […]
Read moreCanadian Labour Congress Statement Why We Need a Coalition Government to Deal with the Economic Crisis. The Economic and Fiscal Update released by Finance Minister Flaherty on November 27, 2008 demonstrates that the Conservative government has no intention of seriously dealing with the global economic crisis and the prospect of fast rising unemployment. The recent G-20 Summit meeting called on […]
Read moreI wasn’t originally planning to write a longer analysis and critique of Flaherty’s fiscal and economic statement beyond our immediate response because, like most people, I expected it would at least show some reasonable recognition of the problem and at least the framework for a stimulus program (besides, I had young children to pick up from school, feed and put […]
Read moreThe PEF got a plug in the Toronto Star today. This article by Linda Diebel noted our open letter on the economic crisis and interviewed a few of our signatories. Overall it is a good article and the comments of a few signatories are excellent. We really appreciate the plug, but I should note, as PEF Chair, that those interviewed […]
Read moreThe Equalization changes are probably the most fiscally significant cuts in yesterday’s unstimulating Economic Statement. In 2009-10, the program is projected to pay out $14.2 billion instead of $16 billion. In 2010-11, it will pay $14.5 billion instead of $20 billion. This $5.5 billion difference exceeds the $3.5 billion in total projected savings from spending austerity, asset sales, the wage […]
Read morehttp://news.guelphmercury.com/Opinions/article/409306 Today’s economic update by Jim Flaherty must provide investment in jobs the canadian press November 27, 2008 Ken Georgetti Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty must use today’s economic update to become part of the solution to our ever deepening economic crisis. Governments, leading economists and even the International Monetary Fund agree that cutting interest rates alone will not save […]
Read moreBy desperately clinging to the facade of a balanced budget, today’s Economic Statement rules out a meaningful stimulus package. The federal government optimistically assumes an economic slowdown rather than a sustained recession (it projects real GDP growth every year). To avoid the modest annual deficits that a slowdown would cause, the government proposes to reduce overall expenditures, sell public assets, […]
Read moreMuch has been written on this blog about immediate responses to the crisis. We have analyzed proposed measures in depth and advocated for bold novel solutions. But it seems to me that we haven’t spent much time looking forward a little past the here and now. Last week, I was contacted by a Montreal-based journalist, Alex Roslin, who was looking […]
Read moreIt appears that, once again, “We are all Keynesians now.” Almost everyone agrees that the federal government needs to inject significant fiscal stimulus into the deteriorating Canadian economy. In particular, there now seems to be a consensus for more infrastructure investment. While accepting this prescription in theory, the federal Conservatives maintain that tomorrow will simply be a fiscal “update” and […]
Read moreIn Saturday’s Globe, Gordon Campbell ridiculously presented eliminating inter-provincial barriers as a response to the global financial crisis. Although Marc beat me to the punch in replying, I have a few further thoughts. Several months ago, TILMA boosters said that removing alleged barriers to labour mobility was particularly pressing given a “tight” labour market. Today, the same people say that […]
Read moreThere’s a great article in today’s Vancouver Sun hammering on the fact that all major mainstream economists failed to anticipate the economic crisis. Provocatively titled Economics 101: Everything you know is wrong, the article quotes James Galbraith’s indictment on the mainstream of the profession that originally appeared in a New York Times Magazine article: “There are thousands of economists. Most […]
Read moreSeasonally-adjusted consumer prices fell by 0.5% between September and October. While less dramatic than the 1.0% drop in the US, the sudden drop in Canadian prices also raises the possibility of deflation. The annual inflation rate declined from 3.4% in September to 2.6% in October, well below the US rate of 3.7% in October. This pace could put Canada on […]
Read moreSays that “Our government will proceed with legislation to modernize our competition and investment laws, implementing many of the recommendations of the Competition Policy Review Panel.” The key recommendation of the panel was that only very large foreign takeovers worth more than $1 Billion (vs $300 Million today) should be reviewed at all, and that the onus should not be […]
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