I normally hesitate to make short term economic prognostications and the Bank of Canada could indeed be right that growth might tip over the cusp from negative to positive in the third quarter as the first sign of a “nascent recovery” from the Great Recession. As many have noted, including Jim on the National on Thursday night, a mildly positive […]
Read moreThis morning, Statistics Canada revealed the country’s worst-kept secret: the economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the first three months of 2009. Adjusted for inflation, Gross Domestic Product dropped by 1.4%. If this trend continued (and compounded) for a year, the Canadian economy would be 5.4% smaller. On the other hand, this decline was not bad enough to […]
Read morePEF people are not the only ones who correctly anticipated some of our recent economic and fiscal events. Jamie Galbraith also saw a lot of this coming in his book The Predator State. With no further ado, I’m posting an enthusiastic review of the book by fellow traveler and Sorbonne PhD economics graduate Henry Sader:
Read moreEven as Conservatives jettison some of the worst features of Thursday’s economic statement, they appeared on this morning’s TV news programs reiterating that their tax cuts are worth 2% of GDP – the amount of stimulus recommended by the International Monetary Fund. Almost a year ago, Marc began noting the dubiousness of casting tax cuts from the 2007 Economic Statement […]
Read moreIf you pay attention to economic issues you have probably heard that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real (inflation-adjusted) GDP. It is pretty arbitrary, but on this basis, the most recent numbers had Canada missing the cut-off for recession by a hair. Indeed, it was a downward revision to the first quarter GDP number (which […]
Read moreWhat a cliff-hanger! 0.3% annualized growth for the 2Q, and no “official recession” (not yet, anyway). I win my own pool (with my 0.2% guess). I will devote my winnings to the CCPA. The other guesses are posted in the comments section of the original recession-watch blog post here: http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2008/08/09/jimbos-official-recession-watch-lottery/ Couple of tidbits in today’s GDP numbers: 1. If it […]
Read moreFriday’s eye-popping employment numbers (55,000 lost jobs, the worst one-month toll since the 1991 recession), combined with the previous week’s negative GDP numbers (down 0.1% in May, the fourth decline in six months), have raised once again the spectre that Canada’s total economy is teetering on the edge of “official” recession. The suspense is growing as we head toward the […]
Read moreHere is the latest from the Conference Board: Its outlook projects Canada’s economy to grow 1.7 per cent this year – a far more bullish prediction than the Bank of Canada, which on Tuesday revised downward its growth forecast to one per cent this year. What is interesting is how the CP report calls them “bullish”. Back in February, I […]
Read moreDenial with a capital “D”. That’s the only way to describe the reaction to Friday’s stunner from Statistics Canada: real GDP shrank 0.3% (at annualized rates) in the first quarter, and hence Canada is likely already in the recession that our fearless government leaders have been saying can’t happen here. For months economists have been wondering if Canada could escape […]
Read more