Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was unusually blunt on CTV’s Question Period yesterday, saying he was worried about the possibility of another recession. (Finance Ministers are usually very cautious about using the “r”-word, for fear that might worry consumers an dbring about a self-fulfilling prophecy.) Maybe he had already seen today’s quarterly GDP numbers from Statistics Canada, which give lots of […]
Read moreJack Layton unveiled the NDP’s policy platform today. Among other things, it promises to eliminate the deficit (i.e. balance the federal budget) within four years. I’m not sure it should. Several years back, I had the opportunity to take a directed reading course from John Smithin. In addition to being a long-time member of the Progressive Economics Forum, John is […]
Read moreAdvocates of corporate tax cuts like comparing Canada to an unweighted average of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development members. Since the OECD keeps admitting more microscopic economies with very low corporate tax rates, this average keeps falling regardless of whether any country actually lowers its rate. Last year’s admission of Estonia, Israel and Slovenia dragged the OECD average just […]
Read moreCanada’s recovery from the 2008-09 recession ground to a painful halt during the second half of 2010. The economy created no net new jobs from the summer onward, economic growth slowed to a crawl, and the nation’s current account deficit reached a record size. And all of that was while federal-provincial stimulus efforts (said to provide a boost equivalent to […]
Read moreThe term “Austrian economists†usually refers to the likes of Hayek, Menger and von Mises. But I recently met some rather different economists from the Austrian Chamber of Labour. Austrian law requires that union members pay dues to the Chamber of Labour, so it is very well-funded for a progressive think tank. Similarly, all Austrian businesses are members of the […]
Read moreAmong the concerns about the HST that we at the CCPA have raised was the poor timing of the tax change. From my pre-budget piece last September: If British Columbians respond to the HST by reducing their consumer spending, the timing of the HST introduction may actually slow down the economic recovery, which should be getting under way next summer. […]
Read moreJim and I responded somewhat differently to Tuesday’s GDP release. Jim’s Globe and Mail column suggested that it was especially bad: “We’re clearly heading for stagnation at best, and quite possibly another ‘double dip’ downturn.†I perceived a ray or two of hope and told The Toronto Star: “I’m not predicting a double dip.†While I think that we actually […]
Read moreYesterday’s GDP numbers were worse than they seemed. And they highlighted a curious feature of modern capitalism. Nowadays, non-financial businesses have become major net lenders to the rest of the economy. Instead of borrowing money (in various forms: debt, equity, etc.) from other sectors to finance real investment, non-financial businesses are not even reinvesting their own cash flow. The surplus […]
Read moreUPDATE (September 1): Quoted in The Toronto Star. Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew modestly in the second quarter, but that modest growth returned GDP to a level not seen since before the economic crisis. Recent Developments: The Second Quarter Canada’s output expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.5%, which corresponds to an annual rate of 2.0%. Such growth would […]
Read moreGross Domestic Product (GDP) edged up 0.1% in May. Annualized output was $1,231 billion, still below the pre-crisis peak of $1,241 billion in July 2008 but well above the trough of $1,186 billion in May 2009. Canada-US Comparison American GDP figures released this morning indicate an annual growth rate of 2.4% in the second quarter (April – June). Over April […]
Read moreAs BC and Ontario have now started paying the HST at the till, many people may be wondering when exactly can we expect to see those jobs postings opening up. This is a good question. According to analysis commissioned by the BC government from economist Jack Mintz, titled British Columbia’s Harmonized Sales Tax: A Giant Leap in the province’s Competitiveness, […]
Read moreFollowing a strong increase in March, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased slightly in April. Output edged down in both the goods-producing sector and the service sector. Annualized output stood at $1,229 billion in April, compared to a pre-crisis peak of $1,241 billion in July 2008 and a trough of $1,186 billion in May 2009. We are $12 billion below the […]
Read moreThis morning, Statistics Canada reported a robust economic expansion in March and hence in the first quarter of 2010. Although February’s growth was revised down to 0.2%, strong growth of 0.6% in both January and March propelled the quarterly total to 1.5%. That figure corresponds to an annual growth rate of 6.1%, more than double the 3.0% growth reported south […]
Read moreIn February, Canada experienced its slowest economic growth since October 2009. Of course, no one expected the initial rapid rebound out of recession to continue forever. Monthly growth of 0.3% corresponds to annual growth of 3.7%, which is quite strong by historical standards and stronger than the 3.2% US growth estimated this morning for the first quarter. Yesterday, Statistics Canada reported […]
Read moreGDP Halfway Home Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) blew past an important milestone in January. Output is now closer to the high-point attained before the crisis than to the low-point reached during the crisis. Specifically, GDP (in chained 2002 dollars) peaked at $1,241 billion in July 2008 and plummeted to $1,185 billion in May 2009. By January 2010, it recovered […]
Read moreIglika makes several cogent, high-level criticisms of the Fraser Institute’s “analysis” of how much government stimulus has contributed to Canada’s economic recovery. However, I think that it is guilty of a far more basic flaw. To determine how much government purchases and investment contributed to economic growth, one would compare the increase in government purchases and investment with the increase […]
Read moreYesterday, the Fraser Institute published a new report, which argues that the government stimulus did not drive Canadian economic growth in the last two quarters of 2009 and suggests that government spending on infrastructure was useless for the economy. The report earned the scorn of Finance Minister Flaherty, who was quoted in the Vancouver Sun calling the report “poorly done […]
Read moreMy post on this past Monday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release emphasized the disconnect between profits and investment in the corporate sector. As Andrew commented on that post, the public sector’s contribution to the recovery is also noteworthy. That point seems especially relevant in the wake of a federal budget devoted to continuing previously announced stimulus. The right-wing critique from […]
Read moreCanada’s industrial engine appeared to restart in December. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.6% that month, led by particularly strong growth in resource extraction, utilities, manufacturing and wholesale trade. December propelled the fourth quarter of 2009 to 1.2% growth, the fastest quarterly growth in a decade. Canada’s Recovery in Perspective While encouraging, the Canadian recovery has been weaker than […]
Read moreToday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release paints a significantly improved picture of the Canadian economy. GDP rose by 0.4% in November. Statistics Canada also revised upward its previously released figures. GDP grew by 0.3% instead of 0.2% in October and 0.5% instead of 0.4% in September. While these figures are encouraging, they imply a slower annual growth rate than the 5.7% […]
Read moreIn October, Canada’s inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.16%, which rounds up to 0.2%. While a second consecutive month of growth is unambiguously good news, we should be concerned about the amount and type of growth. Amount of Growth Real GDP (in chained 2002 dollars) dropped from a peak of $1,241 billion in July 2008 to a trough […]
Read moreHere we go with another media frenzy celebrating the official “end of the recession.” Truly, this time. We really mean it. Harken back to July 23 of this year, when Mark Carney made it official the first time, declaring in his monetary policy update that the economy was back in the black. His bold declaration made headlines, but it sure […]
Read moreAs yesterday’s Labour Force Survey confirmed, the recession continues for the vast majority of Canadians, who rely on employment for most of their income. But the technical measure of a recession is consecutive quarterly declines in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Some have suggested that, even by this measure, the recession continues. Of course, we will not have a definitive […]
Read moreCanadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in August. The decline mainly reflected temporary closures of major oil rigs, mines and mills due to maintenance or labour disputes. This explanation is valid, as far as it goes. However, the broader issue is that more widespread economic growth should be more than offsetting these isolated events. Today’s release reveals a […]
Read moreI had been girding my loins yesterday, with the release of StatsCan’s July GDP numbers, for another orgy of triumphalist headlines: “The Recovery Is Nigh! All is Good! Stop Worrying! Nothing to See Here, Folks!  Just Go About Your Business!” After all, Chrysler’s two humongous Canadian assembly plants went back to work in July (after a 6-week shutdown as Chrysler went […]
Read moreFlat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for July provide a sobering reminder that the technical end of a recession may not imply a rapid recovery. Output appears to have stopped shrinking, but this morning’s release suggests stabilization rather than growth. Rounding to the nearest billion, all-industry GDP has been $1,184 billion for three months. It had peaked at $1,241 billion […]
Read moreKeystone Liberals Yesterday, Andrew Coyne lambasted a Liberal Party “Reality Check†from Thursday that looks eerily similar to the table that I had posted on Monday. Like my table, the Liberals use the words “Growthâ€, “Declineâ€, and “Britain.†By contrast, the OECD’s tables use a negative sign (instead of words) to denote declines and refer to the “United Kingdom.†The […]
Read moreDisappointingly, press coverage of Monday’s GDP numbers missed the fact that Canada had posted the worst second-quarter performance of any G-7 country. To his credit, Julian Beltrame of Canadian Press picked it up on Tuesday. The media has redeemed itself by noting that today’s Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projections suggest that Canada will post the worst third quarter […]
Read moreThis morning’s Gross Domestic Product figures put the lie to Prime Minister Harper’s claim that “we will come out of this faster than anyone.” While many other advanced economies grew or stabilized during the second quarter of 2009, the Canadian economy shrank by 0.9%. During this period, three G7 countries – Japan, Germany and France – experienced economic growth. The […]
Read moreWhile this morning’s American GDP numbers were less bad than expected, this morning’s Canadian GDP numbers were worse than expected. May saw the second-deepest decline of any month so far in 2009. Indeed, May’s 0.5% contraction was almost as bad as January’s 0.6% contraction. Sectoral Breakdown Like January and the intervening months, May was characterized by flat output from the […]
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