The National Bank have published a very useful and interesting report on the current account deficit, which is now running at about 3% of GDP. They argue that the deficit – largely driven by a huge fall in our manufacturing and wider goods trade balance – has now become structural, and should be cause for much greater concern than is […]
Read moreDean Baker has weighed in on the weird idea that Iceland might adopt the Canadian dollar. It is their decision to make, but I also don’t see much to recommend it.
Read moreThe following note also appears on Business Insider. I owe Paul Tulloch a hat tip for reminding me of these issues in a good comment on my last post. When Ontario’s Premier recently complained that Canada’s petro-dollar undermines manufacturing exports, many economists tripped over each other to counter that a strong loonie benefits all Canadians through cheaper imports. In theory, […]
Read moreIn response to Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty’s complaint about oil and the exchange rate, several (conservative) commentators argued that this “Dutch disease†is not what ails Ontario manufacturing. Andrew Coyne took a different tack yesterday, agreeing that petroleum development drives up the exchange rate to the detriment of manufacturing and hence Ontario’s economy, but concluding that nothing can or should […]
Read moreThe UNTCAD just published its annual report on Trade and Development, titled Post-crisis Policy Challenges in the World Economy. The report describes a two speed global recovery, showing how developing economies have come out of the crisis stronger then their developed European and American counterparts. There the author invokes the contradictory forces at work in a “wageless” recovery, where wage […]
Read moreYesterday, Alex Usher blogged at the Globe and Mail’s web site about the salaries of Canadian university professors. He argues that professors in Canada are now paid better than professors in the United States. He also suggests that, in Canada, “professors are getting world-class pay without producing world-class results.” While I’ve never argued that tenured Canadian university professors are underpaid […]
Read moreA week ago, Paul Krugman wrote that Japan’s stable if sluggish economy and low unemployment could start looking pretty good compared to the Voodoo economics advocated by US Republicans. The counterintuitive case for Japan as an economic model just became more compelling with the Bank of Japan’s intervention to lower the yen. As reported on the front page of today’s […]
Read moreEarlier this month, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates ahead of its original schedule to head off inflation. Some commentators are calling for further rate hikes in the near future. But today’s Consumer Price Index suggests that inflation is not an impending threat. Adjusting for seasonal factors, consumer prices were lower in May than they had been in April. […]
Read moreThe Austrian School is a venerable tradition in economics, albeit one antithetical to this blog’s perspective. But it became apparent this morning that we should instead have been studying Hungarian economics. As far as I can tell, a vice-chairman of Hungary’s right-wing governing party (not a government official) made some loose remarks about public finances being so bad that the […]
Read moreBelatedly, two days after the fact, the Globe picked up on Bank of Canada governor Carney’s discussion of the Bank’s model of the world economy (I blogged about that speech here) at a speech to the Ottawa Economics Association (OEA) last Wednesday. The Globe spun the story in an unusual way by suggesting that the Bank and its analysis (using […]
Read moreStatsitics Canada has released some interesting new obscure research on what constitutes a “purchasing power parity” exchange rate for Canada. It was summarized in an article in the December Canadian Economic Observer, and is explained more fully in an on-line technical paper by John Baldwin and Ryan Macdonald. First off, let me remind everyone that the international empirical evidence is […]
Read moreThe obvious headline from today’s Statistics Canada release is inflation rising to 1.3% in December, its highest level in almost a year. However, the Consumer Price Index actually decreased between November and December. The overall price level was down 0.3% in absolute terms and 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The annual inflation rate rose only due to a lower base […]
Read moreWhat can be done to halt the damage to jobs and our economy being caused by the excessive appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar? The Bank of Canada have noted the problem, but appear to think there is no solution. Erin has argued here that the Bank can always sell Canadian dollars, and that it is far […]
Read moreThe Canadian dollar is again becoming more overvalued. After dipping as low as 92 US cents at the end of October, it rocketed up to 96 US cents so far today. Meanwhile, the OECD has released another month of purchasing-power data. Although the loonie’s average price on foreign-exchange markets edged up between August and September, its relative buying power in […]
Read moreLast week, I posted about how several chartered-bank economists have been denying the Bank of Canada’s capacity to lower the Canadian dollar. While I think that the chartered banks generally prefer a high loonie, it is important to note that not all of their economists are signing from the same songbook. CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld advocates intervention by the Bank of […]
Read moreDebate is heating up about whether the Bank of Canada should or will intervene in currency markets to lower the Canadian dollar (as I have been proposing for three months). Today’s two-cent drop in the exchange rate may indicate that currency traders are anticipating this possibility. Over at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, Stephen Gordon objected to recent comments from RBC’s Patricia Croft on […]
Read moreWhile some prices rose slightly and others fell slightly between July, August and September, the total Consumer Price Index has remained exactly the same through these months. The annual inflation rate declined by 0.9% in September, tying July for the largest rate decline since 1953. All provinces but Saskatchewan now have negative inflation. While the main story continues to be […]
Read moreThe loonie’s spectacular flight toward parity with the greenback (and likely beyond) seems to know no bounds. It’s climbed by over 25 percent in 7 months; its flight began the same day global stock markets turned the corner back in March. There’s no reason why this appreciation, the steepest in our history, should stop at mere parity. Exporters, beware. Economists agree […]
Read moreThis morning’s consumer price figures for August are reminiscent of July. The annual Consumer Price Index decline was 0.8% (compared to 0.9% last month.) With the exception of July, August was the sharpest drop in consumer prices since 1953. In both July and August, eight of ten provinces posted negative inflation rates. The only province with positive inflation in both […]
Read moreColumnist Doug Saunders writes (from his Mediterranean cruise) in today’s Globe: “It’s a little like the decision being faced by the Bank of Canada, which can print money and ease the dollar’s value downward to please Ontario’s manufacturers, or let it rise to please Alberta’s petroleum exporters – but not both.” Huh? Petro exporters get more Canadian dollars and higher […]
Read moreComments in the Bank of Canada’s last two interest-rate announcements and by its Governor have fuelled speculation that it might intervene in currency markets to moderate the overvalued Canadian dollar. Of course, these remarks may be garnering undue and unintended attention. With the Bank conditionally committed to no interest-rate changes for a year, comments on the dollar have been the […]
Read moreWhile this morning’s American GDP numbers were less bad than expected, this morning’s Canadian GDP numbers were worse than expected. May saw the second-deepest decline of any month so far in 2009. Indeed, May’s 0.5% contraction was almost as bad as January’s 0.6% contraction. Sectoral Breakdown Like January and the intervening months, May was characterized by flat output from the […]
Read moreA thought-provoking piece from the Asia Times – apparently China is drawing on hidden forex reserves to purchase real assets such as stakes in resource companies – diversifying away from the US Treasury bubble in a non trivial way and perhaps setting the stage for a collapse of the US dollar. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KC18Cb01.html
Read moreI’m just back from visiting family in England, and got to have a first-hand look at how the economic crisis is playing out on the other side of the Atlantic. Suffice it to say, it is the dominant story. Before we left, the Bank of England cut short-term interest rates by 1.5% and it was revealed that they had contemplated […]
Read moreThink back to last October-November. The Canadian dollar went psycho for a few days — rising as high as $1.10. Then it came back down to mere parity with the greenback (leaving us a mere 25% over fair value, measured by PPP). Some time after that, then-Governor Dodge indicated in Senate testimony (on December 6) that he was “relieved” by […]
Read moreI want to encourage folks to look through the CAW’s detailed submission to the federal government’s panel on competition policy (headed by Red Wilson). Here is the link: http://www.caw.ca/whoweare/CAWpoliciesandstatements/pdfs/CompetitionInvestmentPanel.pdf I think it’s a major statement about the structural transformation occurring in Canada’s economy as a result of the global commodity boom.  Basic summary: high global commodity prices have boosted the […]
Read moreToday, Statistics Canada revealed that our December 2007 merchandise trade surplus was the lowest one since November 1998. This fact is yet more evidence that the rise in energy exports has been smaller than the decline in exports from manufacturing and other sectors. The conventional story about high oil prices driving-up the loonie assumes that these prices have increased our […]
Read moreThe Commons Finance Committee, spurred by my old debating opponent John McCallum, is holding hearings in the next two weeks on the economic and fiscal consequences of the loonie’s unsustainable flight. (I kind of miss crossing swords with John, actually: In the good old days he was the evil but friendly Bay Street banker, justifying federal spending cuts — and […]
Read moreThe ride of the Canadian dollar is on every good policy wonk’s mind. Labour is concerned about its impact on jobs. Manufacturers are concerned about what exchange rate volatility means for their bottom lines when their sales are in one currency and costs in another. (Note: like border line-ups, exchange rate volatility is a real cost of transacting across the […]
Read moreToday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release reveals that inflation has dipped to 2.4% and core inflation has fallen to 1.8%, its lowest level since June 2006. These figures undermine the argument that interest rates should be maintained to slow inflation. As the National Post reports, “A weaker-than-expected rise in the inflation rate for October could give the Bank of Canada […]
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