Job Gains in March: An Aberration?
Coming after several months of flat or falling job growth, the large jump in employment in March – up 82,300 – has prompted concerns that it could be a statistical aberration, due toÂ sampling error rather than a real change.
This could indeed be the case. However, the Standard Error for the national estimate of employment is 28,600 – much lower than the total increase.Â Â Â
I thought the jump could be due to some combination of normal seasonalÂ adjustment and an exceptionally warm March in much of the country, but the non-seasonally-adjusted jump in employment was 84,000.
SoÂ it seems chances are that we did indeed see a pretty big jump in jobs in March. Whether it lasts is an entirely different question.