Jobs Recovery?
The Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections released today is fairly upbeat on the recovery in the job market, noting that “all of the jobs lost during the recession have now been recouped.” Well yes, but that still leaves us down 211,000 permanent full-time employee positions, with all of the net job creation over teh past year or so having been in part-time, temporary and self-employment. Not to mention that the “real” unemployment rate is over two percentage points higher than before the recession, while the employment rate is down almost two percentage points. And a youth unemployment rate of 14.9% combined with a youth part-time rate of 48.0% is pretty troubling. Still, at least the fiscal path is still “on target” – even if unemployment is forecast to average 7.7% in 2011. (Thanks to my colleague Sylvain Schetagne for the Table)
| Key Labour Market Changes – October 2008 to September 2010 | |||||
| October 2008 | September 2010 | Change 2008-2010 | |||
| Unemployment Rate (%) | |||||
| All | 6.2 | 8.0 | 1.8 | ||
| Men | 6.7 | 8.5 | 1.8 | ||
| Women | 5.7 | 7.4 | 1.7 | ||
| Age 15-24 | 12.1 | 14.9 | 2.8 | ||
| Age 25-54 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | ||
| Age 55 and over | 5.4 | 6.3 | 0.9 | ||
| Unemployed more than 6 months *(NSA) | 14.1 | 20.1 | 6.0 | ||
| (as % Unemployed) | |||||
| Number of Unemployed (000) | 1,137.4 | 1,493.0 | 355.6 | ||
| Supplementary Unemployment Rate (R8) | 8.0 | 10.2 | 2.2 | ||
| Employment Rate (%) | 63.6 | 61.9 | -1.7 | ||
| Participation Rate (%) | |||||
| All | 67.8 | 67.3 | -0.5 | ||
| Age 15-24 | 67.7 | 64.0 | -3.7 | ||
| Men 25 and Over | 74.0 | 73.8 | -0.2 | ||
| Women 25 and Over | 62.0 | 62.2 | 0.2 | ||
| Job Status (000s) | |||||
| All Employees | 17,204.2 | 17,209.7 | 5.5 | ||
| Full-time | 14,011.8 | 13,862.6 | -149.2 | ||
| Part-time | 3,192.5 | 3,347.1 | 154.6 | ||
| Self-employed | 2,648.6 | 2,690.3 | 41.7 | ||
| Permanent Jobs *(NSA) | 12,808.5 | 12,585.1 | -223.4 | ||
| Temporary Jobs *(NSA) | 1,806.8 | 1,954.3 | 147.5 | ||
| Permanent Full-time Jobs *(NSA) | 10,882.0 | 10,670.9 | -211.1 | ||
| Temporary Full-time Jobs *(NSA) | 1,020.3 | 1,197.8 | 177.5 | ||
| Permanent Part-time Jobs *(NSA) | 1,926.5 | 1,914.2 | -12.3 | ||
| Temporary Part-time Jobs *(NSA) | 786.4 | 756.5 | -29.9 | ||
| Part-time Rate (%) | |||||
| All | 18.6 | 19.4 | 0.8 | ||
| Age 15-24 | 44.9 | 48.0 | 3.1 | ||
| Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 2008-2010, mostly seasonally adjusted data. | |||||
| * Not seasonally adjusted. | |||||
I just finished looking at manufacturing jobs as published by the labour force survey, since 2003, the high point of manufacturing jobs, we have lost over 600,000 jobs, and more than half of that since 2007. So I say this with a very somber look, the sad reality is, the economic update and the harper regime more generally, refuse to admit that any such gain surely has not been in the core sectors of the economy.
That is a proportionally fairly close to the USA decline that I had mentioned previously. It is merely a start but I will post a link to the data and the graphs soon.
Paul