Are the July Education Job Losses Over-Stated?
They are according toÂ a couple ofÂ bank economists cited in a prominent story today’s Globe who think the big loss of education jobs in July (down 60,000) is due to a failure by Stats Can to properly calibrate seasonal adjustmentÂ to take account ofÂ supposed recent changes in employment patterns.Â They think many education workers are now laid off in the Summer but get re-hired in the Fall.
There may be something in this. However, the figures in the Globe story do show the July education job losses to be much bigger – to the tune of 40,000 – than last year . Also, I checked the numbers for September 2009 and September 2008 and found no huge jump in education employment from August to September in either of those years (up 8,000 in 2008 and up 18,000 in 2009.)Â A repetition of that level of re-hiring come September would still leave the minus 60,000 hitÂ in July as a big net loss.
My guess – to be rechecked in the Fall – is that there have been a lot of permanent layoffs in the post secondary sector.