Main menu:

History of RPE Thought

Posts by Tag

RSS New from the CCPA

  • CCPA in Europe for CETA speaking tour October 17, 2017
    On September 21, Canada and the European Union announced that the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a controversial NAFTA-plus free trade deal initiated by the Harper government and signed by Prime Minister Trudeau in 2016, was now provisionally in force. In Europe, however, more than 20 countries have yet to officially ratify the deal, […]
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • Twelve year study of an inner-city neighbourhood October 12, 2017
    What does twelve years of community organizing look like for a North End Winnipeg neighbourhood?  Jessica Leigh survey's those years with the Dufferin community from a community development lens.  Read full report.
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • Losing your ID - even harder to recover when you have limited resources! October 10, 2017
    Ellen Smirl researched the barriers experienced by low-income Manitobans when faced with trying to replace lost, stolen, or never aquired idenfication forms. Read full report here.  
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • CCPA recommendations for a better North American trade model October 6, 2017
    The all-party House of Commons trade committee is consulting Canadians on their priorities for bilateral and trilateral North American trade in light of the current renegotiation of NAFTA. In the CCPA’s submission to this process, Scott Sinclair, Stuart Trew, and Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood argue for a different kind of trading relationship that is inclusive, transformative, and […]
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • Ontario’s fair wage policy needs to be refreshed September 28, 2017
    The Ontario government is consulting on ways to modernize the province’s fair wage policy, which sets standards for wages and working conditions for government contract workers such as building cleaners, security guards, building trades and construction workers. The fair wage policy hasn’t been updated since 1995, but the labour market has changed dramatically since then. […]
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
Progressive Bloggers

Meta

Recent Blog Posts

Posts by Author

Recent Blog Comments

The Progressive Economics Forum

Is BC breaking its GHG law by pursuing natural gas development?

Today CCPA’s Climate Justice Project released a new report by yours truly, BC’s Legislated Greenhouse Gas Targets vs Natural Gas Development: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly. It was just five years ago that BC brought in the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act, a signal that BC was serious about climate action. The Act calls for a 33% cut in emissions by 2020 (relative to 2007 levels) and 80% by 2050, with interim targets for 2012 and 2016. My report provides a reality check on progress toward and prospects for the 2020 target.

The good news is that BC’s emissions were down 4.5% as of 2010, the last year for which we have data (and we won’t get 2011 and 2012 data until 2014). Clearly, the economic downturn had its impact but I think there is case to be made that climate actions, and the general conversation in BC about climate change, have also played a role. Interestingly, BC would already be at its 2012 target of a 6% reduction if not for the growth of the natural gas industry.

Which brings me to the core theme of the report. BC’s Natural Gas Strategy aims to double or even triple gas production via fracking in the Northeast, pipeline that gas to the coast, compress it to LNG, and ship it to Asia. If realized, it would be like putting at least 24 million cars on the roads of the world, at a time when the adverse impacts of climate change are becoming hard to ignore.

As for BC’s targets, accommodating this emissions growth would require an 80% reduction in emissions by 2020 for the rest of the economy. In other words, it would make it virtually impossible to meet the targets set out in the GHG law, which would become the climate equivalent of balanced budget legislation. I’m an economist not a lawyer, but it seems to me that the government is breaking its own law by ramping up an industry that actually needs to be wound down.

But it’s not just that the Natural Gas Strategy is immoral and illegal, it is bad economics. Very few jobs would be created in exchange for all of these environmental and climate impacts – even taking some recent (and unverified) government estimates of 2,500 long-term jobs, that is still just 0.1% of BC employment. As for royalties to the government, don’t bank on them. Current year natural gas royalties are estimated at $157 million, 0.3% of the BC budget, in spite of record high production levels.

The report gets into these issues and does the math with the hope that BC takes a sober second look at the Natural Gas Strategy. We would be much better off sticking to BC’s GHG law, and making investments in a Climate Action Plan 2.0 that gets us to our 2020 target, creating more and greener jobs along the way.

Enjoy and share:

Write a comment





Related articles