Today CCPA’s Climate Justice Project released a new report by yours truly, BCâ€™s Legislated Greenhouse Gas Targets vsÂ Natural Gas Development: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly.Â It was just five years ago thatÂ BC brought in the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act, a signal thatÂ BC was serious about climate action. The Act calls for a 33% cut in emissions by 2020 (relative to 2007 levels) and 80% by 2050, withÂ interim targets for 2012 and 2016. My report provides a reality check on progress toward and prospects for the 2020 target.
The good news is that BC’s emissions were down 4.5%Â as of 2010, the last year for which we have data (and we won’t getÂ 2011 and 2012 data until 2014). Clearly, the economic downturn had itsÂ impact but I think there is case to be made that climate actions, andÂ the general conversation in BC about climate change, have also played a role. Interestingly, BC would already be at its 2012 target of a 6%Â reduction if not for the growth of the natural gas industry.
Which brings me to the core theme of the report. BC’s Natural GasÂ Strategy aims to double or even triple gas production via fracking inÂ the Northeast, pipeline that gas to the coast, compress it to LNG, andÂ ship it to Asia. If realized, it would be like putting at least 24Â million cars on the roads of the world, at a time when the adverseÂ impacts of climate change are becoming hard to ignore.
As for BC’s targets, accommodating this emissions growth would requireÂ an 80% reduction in emissions by 2020 for the rest of the economy. InÂ other words, it would make it virtually impossible to meet the targetsÂ set out in the GHG law, which would become the climate equivalent ofÂ balanced budget legislation. I’m an economist not a lawyer, but itÂ seems to me that the government is breaking its own law by ramping upÂ an industry that actually needs to be wound down.
But it’s not just that the Natural Gas Strategy is immoral andÂ illegal, it is bad economics. Very few jobs would be created inÂ exchange for all of these environmental and climate impacts â€“ evenÂ taking some recent (and unverified) government estimates of 2,500Â long-term jobs, that is still just 0.1% of BC employment. As forÂ royalties to the government, don’t bank on them. Current year naturalÂ gas royalties are estimated at $157 million, 0.3% of the BC budget, inÂ spite of record high production levels.
The report gets into these issues and does the math with the hope thatÂ BC takes a sober second look at the Natural Gas Strategy. We would beÂ much better off sticking to BC’s GHG law, and making investments in aÂ Climate Action Plan 2.0 that gets us to our 2020 target, creating moreÂ and greener jobs along the way.
- House price inflation and what to do about it (May 18th, 2016)
- BC’s Carbon Emissions on the Rise (May 8th, 2015)
- Low-carbon urban infrastructure: a view from Vancouver (February 17th, 2015)
- 3 worrisome facts about BC’s job market on the eve of Budget 2015 (February 16th, 2015)
- Confusing “Deficit Elimination” with “Prosperity” (February 16th, 2015)