Flat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for July provide a sobering reminder that the technical end of a recession may not imply a rapid recovery. Output appears to have stopped shrinking, but this morning’s release suggests stabilization rather than growth. Rounding to the nearest billion, all-industry GDP has been $1,184 billion for three months. It had peaked at $1,241 billion […]
Read moreUPDATE (September 29): Quoted by The Globe and Mail, National Post, Toronto Star, and Canadian Press . . . A recent inquiry for a NOW Magazine article has inspired me to use the July Employment Insurance (EI) figures, released this morning, to examine how this program serves Canadian cities. However, I begin with a national overview of the numbers and […]
Read moreLast week, the Minister of Finance announced his aspiration to unilaterally eliminate Canada’s few remaining tariffs on imported machinery and equipment. Saturday’s Globe and Mail quoted me doubting this proposal given the severity of Canada’s offshore trade deficit in that area. I elaborate my case in the following op-ed, which is printed in today’s Financial Post with Terry Corcoran making […]
Read moreThe Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives released a new study today comparing the expenditures of rich and poor Canadians. This approach is interesting because inequality is typically measured in terms of income or wealth. Conservatives sometimes claim that, while temporary fluctuations in income or asset values create the appearance of massive inequality at any given point in time, consumption (and […]
Read moreYesterday, the Prime Minister’s office put out a press release trumpeting Tim Hortons’ reorganization as a Canadian company as validation of deep federal corporate tax cuts. There was no real news: shareholders predictably ratified a decision that had been extensively reported back in June, when Tim Hortons management described it as “a pretty bland corporate announcement.” Nevertheless, far too many journalists […]
Read moreSome pundits have blasted the NDP for voting with the Conservatives in exchange for “a bone,” “crumbs” or “a peanut” on Employment Insurance (EI). Others have convincingly countered that forcing an election right now would not advance EI reform or other progressive causes. Nevertheless, the decision to temporarily support the government deserves further analysis in terms of the EI proposal […]
Read moreJanice MacKinnon’s op-ed on Employment Insurance (EI) in Monday’s National Post read almost as if it had been written before the economic crisis. There was no mention of mass layoffs or rising unemployment, let alone proposals to enhance EI in response to these trends. Instead, she sees the biggest problem with EI as being the supposed drag on labour mobility […]
Read moreLast night, I saw the North American premiere of Michael Moore’s latest movie at the Toronto International Film Festival. Ironically, it was held in the Visa Screening Room, which grants preferential access to bearers of Visa Gold, Platinum or Infinite credit cards. (The unwashed masses who use MasterCard, AMEX or lower grades of Visa waited in a separate line.) While […]
Read moreKeystone Liberals Yesterday, Andrew Coyne lambasted a Liberal Party “Reality Check†from Thursday that looks eerily similar to the table that I had posted on Monday. Like my table, the Liberals use the words “Growthâ€, “Declineâ€, and “Britain.†By contrast, the OECD’s tables use a negative sign (instead of words) to denote declines and refer to the “United Kingdom.†The […]
Read moreLayoffs Continue Today’s Labour Force Survey indicates that full-time employment declined by 4,000 in August. There were 7,000 fewer jobs in goods-producing industries. Retailers Hire A surprising 21,000 new jobs in retail and wholesale trade propelled economy-wide employment up by 27,000. This increase consisted entirely of part-time jobs. While any employment gain is welcome news, the quality of these new […]
Read moreDisappointingly, press coverage of Monday’s GDP numbers missed the fact that Canada had posted the worst second-quarter performance of any G-7 country. To his credit, Julian Beltrame of Canadian Press picked it up on Tuesday. The media has redeemed itself by noting that today’s Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projections suggest that Canada will post the worst third quarter […]
Read moreI missed the Globe and Mail letters on Thursday (because Jack Mintz’s op-ed prompted me to instead read The National Post that day.) Among them was the following letter from Bruce Hyer, the key advocate of not taxing “small business†profits: Yes, there was a vote I read with interest your editorial The Tax-Cutting Left? (Aug. 18) on the New […]
Read moreI had been fiddling with my last post in spare moments since the federal NDP convention. I fiddled long enough that Jack Mintz beat me to the punch in critiquing the proposal to eliminate corporate tax on small-business profits. His op-ed appeared in yesterday’s Financial Post. His priority is to slash the general corporate tax rate down to the same […]
Read moreStrangely, neither of the two most hyped issues at last weekend’s federal NDP convention reached the floor for debate. I have nothing to add to the discussion about changing the party’s name. However, the proposal to not tax small-business profits compels me to elaborate the case I made when Nova Scotia Liberals promised to slash the provincial small-business tax to […]
Read moreAdvocates of harmonizing provincial sales taxes with the federal GST almost always argue from the premise that, whereas the GST only covers consumer purchases, provincial sales taxes apply to all business inputs. Harmonization is then presented as a means of removing the sales tax from business purchases of machinery and equipment to promote new investment. Not surprisingly, provincial governments have […]
Read moreComments in the Bank of Canada’s last two interest-rate announcements and by its Governor have fuelled speculation that it might intervene in currency markets to moderate the overvalued Canadian dollar. Of course, these remarks may be garnering undue and unintended attention. With the Bank conditionally committed to no interest-rate changes for a year, comments on the dollar have been the […]
Read moreTo my surprise, the Harper Conservatives seem to again be breaking new ground in enforcing the Investment Canada Act. This afternoon, the Industry Minister announced that he is taking US Steel to court for violating its commitments. Back in May, my union argued that the federal government must be prepared to take US Steel to court. Terence Corcoran mocked this […]
Read moreJim has written a couple of posts about “the current mini wave of industrial unrest in Canada.” My union recently joined the fray by striking against Vale Inco. While several prominent strikes have recently captured Canadian headlines, I wondered whether the economic crisis has actually led to more labour disputes. On the one hand, concessionary demands from employers typically provoke […]
Read moreI’ve always been annoyed by the trite, horse-race-style coverage of financial markets that dominates so much of what passes for economics journalism in Canada (especially in the electronic media). How many 2-minute “market updates” do we really need, anyway? I typically hear 4 or more on the radio any given workday, just getting to and from work (full reports at […]
Read moreThe credit crisis, which sharply increased private borrowing costs but reduced government borrowing costs, highlights the potential advantage of having a public agency to finance economic development. The front page of today’s Regina Leader-Post features a report on my union’s letter (full text below) to the Government of Canada about Evraz using its Canadian facilities as collateral to borrow from Russia’s national development […]
Read moreIn my career of writing letters to my hometown newspaper, my favourite headline supplied by the Regina Leader-Post was “Deficit Caused by Tax Cuts,†for a letter arguing that Saskatchewan’s mild deficit a few years ago resulted from provincial tax cuts rather than from alleged overspending. Today’s inane press release from Finance Canada, lauding the fact that “Tax Freedom Day” […]
Read moreCanadian newspapers have recently been flooded with negative stories about Buy America, largely focussed on a single scandalous incident at a Marine base in California. The potential damage to Canada’s economy has been vastly overstated. To the extent that Buy America shifts US government contracts from offshore suppliers to American manufacturers that use Canadian components, Canada actually benefits. Overall, Obama’s massive […]
Read moreIn an op-ed printed in today’s Toronto Star, Ken Neumann (Canadian Director of the United Steelworkers) outlines how unions provide a better economic deal and more workplace rights for both union members and unorganized workers. Opinion – Even during downturns there is power in a union MARGARET SCOTT/NEWSART Unions not only win better wages but also help weave a stronger […]
Read moreYesterday’s Financial Post featured a rather strange op-ed by the Fraser Institute’s current and former directors of fiscal studies: Most Canadians are unfortunately not aware of Canada’s 15-year track record of reducing the size of government (1992-2007). Since peaking in 1992, the size of government in Canada – best measured by total spending at all levels of government as a […]
Read moreMedia coverage of the Bank of Canada’s much anticipated Monetary Policy Report inevitably focuses on the prospect of “unconventional” measures, such as quantitative and credit easing. But the verbs in today’s headlines – “may use” , “ready to” , “lays out” , “sets stage” – reflect how little was actually announced. The Bank provided three pages explaining quantitative and credit […]
Read moreI have enjoyed being one of the three economists appearing on the occasional “Bottom Line” panel which CBC TV has been running on its National News. My fellow panelists (Patricia Croft from RBC Securities and Mark Mullins of the Fraser Institute) are personable, informed, and for the most part non-dogmatic about things. (I know it will surprise many PEF readers […]
Read moreThe Council of Canadians organized a set of news conferences across Canada on March 31, the day before TILMA came into force for local governments in Alberta and BC. I was one of four speakers at the Toronto event. There are obviously larger and more important economic issues facing Canada today than interprovincial “free trade” deals. However, the free-market approach […]
Read moreIt makes my blood boil when I see headlines like this one from the Globe online: “Economic optimism boosts markets”. They are, of course, not talking about the markets that matter for most families’ day-to-day lives – those markets are still tanking. No, the Globe is talking about the stock market, as if an uptick of optimism among our financial […]
Read moreOnce in a while, I come across a blog post that is so on-point I cannot add much more than a link to it. With CBC broadcasting this year’s edition of Canada’s Next Great Prime Minister tonight, I highly recommend this post on the contest’s boneheaded entry requirement. The rule is as follows: “It is a condition of entry and […]
Read moreAmid speculation that the Government of Ontario may harmonize its provincial sales tax with the GST, today’s Toronto Star reports, “The government has offered no analysis to determine how much of a benefit or a drain harmonization would be on the provincial treasury.” I have seen at least one estimate from outside government. Michael Smart and Richard Bird wrote a […]
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