Budget Cuts Could Worsen Rising Unemployment
It was not a happy new year for Canadian job seekers. Statistics Canada reported today that unemployment rose for a fourth consecutive month in January. Overall employment remained flat as Canadaâ€™s population and labour force grew at a normal pace, leaving more workers without jobs.
The good news in todayâ€™s report is that 39,200 more Canadians reported being paid by an employer while 37,000 fewer reported self-employment. Another bright spot was an increase of 10,100 in manufacturing employment, suggesting that the recent rebound in manufacturing output is beginning to translate into jobs. However, manufacturing employment remains near the lowest level ever recorded by the Labour Force Survey.
Many of Januaryâ€™s gains in manufacturing and other goods-producing industries were offset by a loss of construction jobs, highlighting Canadaâ€™s vulnerability to a slowdown in housing. Employment plummeted by 44,800 in professional, scientific and technical services, the segment of the service sector that provides the highest weekly earnings. While we do not know precisely which positions disappeared, this substantial loss of jobs in a well-paid area is troubling.
The average hourly wage rose by 2.0% over the past year, not enough to keep pace with inflation of 2.3% (as of the latest Consumer Price Index). Wages edged up by a meagre 1.0% in Ontario, leaving workers in Canadaâ€™s largest labour market well behind the rising cost of living.
This uneven data comes as federal and provincial governments are formulating austere budgets. Laying off public-sector workers and cutting public spending that supports private-sector jobs threatens Canadaâ€™s soft labour market. Four months of rising unemployment mean that the priority should be job-creation rather than cutbacks.
I tip my cap to Andrew, who beat me by a mile this month.
UPDATE (February 4): Quoted by yesterdayâ€™s The National, Postmedia and Canadian Press
Cuts Will Kill Economy
Open Letter to Premier McGuinty from Top Canadian Economists
Premier if you cut public spending now you would completely destroy Ontario’s economy.
Concerned Canadian Economists