Preparing for Rising Homelessness
Posted by Nick Falvo under Uncategorized.
July 31st, 2010
Comments: none
I have an op-ed in today’s Toronto Star. The piece stems largely from a policy paper I wrote on homelessness earlier this year, and that I blogged about here.
In today’s op-ed, I argue that homelessness rises after a recession, but that there’s a lag effect. To be sure, after the recession of the early 1990s, homelessness in Toronto (as measured by the use of emergency shelters) increased very substantially, but several years after the recession had officially ended. I argue in the op-ed that all three levels of government can and should act to prevent what will likely be a substantial increase in homelessness. Municipal politicians can make homelessness a priority in upcoming elections, the McGuinty governments can fund more rent supplements for low-income households, and the federal government can make pemanent–and increase funding for–the Homelessness Partnering Strategy.
Privacy and the Census: It’s Really Not All About You
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan, Uncategorized.
July 30th, 2010
Comments: 1
Are there good alternatives to the mandatory census long-form questionnaire to collect the information that we need?
Last Saturday CBC’s The House had a sparkling section on the census which offered some thoughts from a Danish statistician and the views of Canada’s longest serving Chief Statistician, Ivan Fellegi. On Tuesday Tavia Grant’s superb article in the Globe and Mail looked at how Europeans tackled the challenge.
Like so many other imports from Europe, the joined-up administrative approach would be difficult to attempt in Canada, and probably unsellable politically once people realise what reliance on “administrative” data means. In fact it is likely the Conservatives and most particularly the libertarian base that supports their current position on the census who would most resist such a move.
To follow these European examples, administrative data from various sources would be collated under our Social Insurance Number ( or a new “universal” identification).
There, in one place, would be our school records and, soon, our health records. It would tell the story of how our incomes rose and fell and how often we were unemployed over our life cycle, and our interface with the State for income supports, traffic violations or more serious aspects of the justice system. As suggested in the UK, it could easily be linked to credit history. In the case of some European nations, you would have to report to the police every time you change your address or job.
Talk about Big Brother.
Compare this to the non-intrusive use of information through the Census long form.
The focus of interest is not you, but “us”: statistical categories of people just like you - the people who live in your neighbourhood, who are in your age group, with your level of education, in your ethno-racial group. Census shows how we compare to our peers and how one group compares to another.
These data don’t track you, they accurately map what is changing in Canadian society. Then it’s up to Canadian society to decide what needs to change. Neighbourhood by neighbourhood, region by region, and nationallly.
The census has changed over time to meet our needs as an evolving social experiment, an unusually diverse society keen to live their lives in relative peace and equality.
We are the United Nations in action, and Canada works partly because of what we know about ourselves and how we use that feedback loop to make adjustments.
The longer set of questions in the mandatory census provide the most helpful information for that process.
It needs to be repeated: There is no way census data can be used to identify what is going on in your personal life.
Until this census, it was possible to take a peak at the answers of individual respondents 92 years later, when presumably the people who answered the questions would be long since dead. But the Conservatives have thought ahead and guarded you against future coercive states and nosy family members, geneologists or historians who want to invade your privacy, by introducing a check-off box to make even that disclosure voluntary.
Admittedly, if you are on the receiving end of the long-form process, some lines of inquiry may seem strange coming from “the government”: How much time do you spend with your children or doing housework? When do you leave for work, how long does it take you to get there, and how do you make that journey? How many bedrooms do you have in your house? What about bathrooms?
But, as weirdly personal as some of the questions seem, it’s really not all about you.
It’s about understanding how widespread are the attributes of prosperity like adequate housing.
Or identifying where pandemics could be spread more quickly.
Or assessing the degree to which young families are spending more time at work than with their families or communities.
Or the changing patterns of how families get formed over the course of generations.
Or how much patterns vary among people with a PhD versus a certificate of high school completion.
Are we essentially the same, or are we pretty different? Are the differences converging or getting bigger?
Because these stories must mandatorily be collected from all Canadians (1 in 5 households, in every corner of the land) census data helps us see how these stories are evolving not just at the “Canadian” level, whatever that aggregate means, but in its full diversity: by region, ethno-racial background, income level, age, household type, immigrant status, and level of ability or disability.
Every single one of these parameters is changing quickly, as Canadian society ages, the labour force shrinks, we continue to flock to cities, and our legacy as a nation of immigrants takes another leap forward.
You know the punchline - we need to reverse this decision.
Staples Recovery
Posted by Erin Weir under GDP, StatCan, US, resources.
July 30th, 2010
Comments: none
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) edged up 0.1% in May. Annualized output was $1,231 billion, still below the pre-crisis peak of $1,241 billion in July 2008 but well above the trough of $1,186 billion in May 2009.
Canada-US Comparison
American GDP figures released this morning indicate an annual growth rate of 2.4% in the second quarter (April - June). Over April and May, Canadian GDP grew at an annual rate of just 0.6%. Without dramatically stronger Canadian growth in June, we will have underperformed the US in the second quarter.
Sectoral Breakdown
Canada’s relatively flat total GDP masked significant changes in output between industries. The service sector contracted. An especially large drop in wholesale trade, a link between production and buyers, may confirm that the recovery is losing momentum.
The next steepest drop was in construction, likely reflecting a slowdown in the housing market without any meaningful pick up in non-residential business investment. Manufacturing was basically flat overall, with an increase in non-durable goods slightly outweighing a decrease in durable goods.
The only real growth sector was commodity production. Mining, oil and gas expanded by 3.4% in May. That figure would be quite respectable as an annual growth rate, but is incredible as a monthly growth rate. Meanwhile, forestry and logging expanded by an eye-popping 7.7%.
The staples thesis posits that Canadian economic development is driven by the extraction and export of staple commodities. Certainly, staples drove Canadian growth in May, offsetting declines in most of the rest of the economy.
Importantly, GDP figures only measure changes in the volume of output. Canada’s staples recovery is even more dramatic if one multiplies those volumes by the rebound in commodity prices since last year.
Stanbury on Coercion
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 30th, 2010
Comments: none
Professor Emeritus at University of British Columbia, William Stanbury, has produced a handy treatise on coercion, published online in the Hill Times this week. Stanbury focused his career as a professor of economics on strategic decision-making in business, including government relations, competition rules, regulations and other public policies that strengthen business performance.
His insightful summary of the arguments on coercion that have emerged during the census debate follows in full here, with his permission as well as that of The Hill Times. Read more »
The Western Climate Initiative: another baby step
Posted by Marc Lee under carbon pricing, climate change.
July 29th, 2010
Comments: none
It has been a while but this week climate change is back in the news cycle. The front page of today’s Globe reports on the latest climate impacts tally:
The report … concluded 2000 to 2009 was the warmest decade ever, and the Earth has been growing warmer for 50 years. Each of the past three decades – 1980s, 1990s and 2000s – was the hottest on record … Of the 10 measurements, the report said seven are rising – air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and the temperature of the troposphere, which is the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining – Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. All of which point to a warming trend.
Also making news is the latest cap-and-trade planning from the Western Climate Initiative, which made the front page of the Vancouver Sun yesterday. I’m hesitant to reprint anything from that story as it gets some of the basics wrong, and makes some big assumptions about how the regional cap-and-trade system will play out in BC. While BC has legislative authority to enter a WCI system in 2012, there are still many details to be worked out about how permits will be allocated, what penalties would be applied, etc. BC was supposed to release some new regulations on how the system would play out today, but then pulled it at the last minute.
The WCI announcement comes on the heels of the demise of an American cap-and-trade program in the US Senate, an outcome that puts all of the onus for US greenhouse gas reductions on states and the Environmental Protection Agency (which, fortunately, has been found to have jurisdiction to regulate GHGs as a pollutant but has not moved due to developments in Congress). A good synopsis of these developments and possible short-term outcomes is here.
Like the poisonous politics of Congress, however, the reality is that the WCI has been creamed at the level of state legislatures. It is one thing for the WCI to state some parameters of a plan; another to win the political support to make a real cap-and-trade system a reality. Officially, there are seven US states and four Canadian provinces that are party to the WCI, plus a longer list of “observers”. But Washington and Oregon, in particular, have faced huge opposition in their state legislatures, and I suspect the others are also having misgivings. The Globe’s coverage of the WCI comments that Ontario and Quebec are uncertain about WCI, so it is anyone’s guess who’ll really be there when 2012 hits.
So on the surface this new announcement may be a step forward, but as always the Devil is in the details. And the details we have suggest that the current form of the WCI is pretty leaky in terms of actual emission reductions. Ian Bruce from the David Suzuki Foundation flags a few very important concerns:
First, the WCI partners shouldn’t weaken the shrinking yearly quota for industrial emitters by allowing companies to buy pollution permits for promised action in the future versus reducing their current emissions. (It wouldn’t be responsible to pass on a financial debt to future generations, and the principle is the same) Second, industry’s target or cap for reducing emissions should be in line with what leading scientists say is necessary to avoid catastrophic consequences of global warming, a reduction of about half over the next decade. Last, these provinces and states can ensure the environmental integrity of the cap-and-trade system by limiting the use of carbon offsets in the system, as this weakens the incentive for industry to take responsible action to reduce its own emissions.
The region-wide target is 15% below 2005 levels, not 50%; carbon offsets can be used for up to 49% of emission reductions; and other provisions allow more “flexibility” in meeting targets (see Figure 4 on page 13 for a list). When I see some meaningful commitments to stop the expansion of fossil fuels with a plan for real reductions, I’ll be the first to do a jig.
The tricky part is that changing these elements would render the program that is already getting a rough political ride virtually impossible. As Bill Rees says, “the ecologically necessary is politically infeasible but the politically feasible is ecologically irrelevant.”
An Exit Strategy for the Conservatives
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 29th, 2010
Comments: 2
Anybody that has been watching the unfolding of the census dust-up could be forgiven for no longer knowing where to place their bets. Are the Conservatives really going to go through with this disruptive measure, or are there still ways out? The answer is yes, a successful resolution is still possible (read on). But nothing is guaranteed and, wow, what a crazy ride it’s been!
With every passing day, even through the course of a given day, the path to the final outcome flips and flops, zigs and zags.
Two days ago the House of Commons Industry Committee met for the first time since the Government quietly announced its census decision. Remember? Via the Canada Gazette (the obscure journal of record for the Government of Canada’s news on federal laws and Orders-in-Council). On a Saturday. Amidst the G20 riots in Toronto.
In the ensuing weeks, Canadians have been treated to an ad-hoc mass public education campaign, compliments of wall-to-wall media coverage and endless on-line commentary (I know).
For most people, it is safe to say, the flurry of drama over statistics was a noodlescratcher until, with every passing day it became clear the myriad and unexpected ways that census data informs daily decision-making and impacts the quality of our lives. Suddenly the census saga became a parable about how an information society uses, and generates, information, and a metaphor for the role of the state.
Tuesday’s Committee hearings marked the first official exchange about the meaning of all this sound and fury. Committee MPs and the public heard from the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada, Tony Clement, about what happened and why. Testimony was also heard from former Chief Statistician Ivan Fellegi, and the Chief Statistician who had resigned just days before, Munir Sheikh. Both provided moving and forceful statements about the role of the public service, and the role of robust statistics in a modern democracy. A handful of experts and data users weighed in, as well as the requisite government supporters. The most memorable testimony for me was that of Elisapee Sheutiapik, Mayor of Iqaluit, who — in answer to the now-famous “what business is it of the government’s how many bedrooms I have?” rant-by-rote delivered by the Conservative faithful — said in quiet tones that in her community it is too cold to be homeless; and though homes tend to be small in scale, everyone accommodates those who need a place to sleep. She didn’t take it further, but could have clarified: it is not uncommon for 15 people to make do in a 2 bedroom home in this part of Canada. That, sadly, has not changed in decades. And the only reason we know that is because of the mandatory census long-form questionnaire, which can only be filled in by many residents of Iqaluit because it is mandatory and therefore the Government of Canada has to provide the resources to ensure that such people, who do not speak either official language well enough, have someone to help them understand and answer the questions.
Which makes one wonder - is the real issue of mandatory versus voluntary more about the Government’s desire to opt out of asking than citizens’ desire to opt out of telling? The Conservatives plan to spend $30 million advertising the voluntary National Household Survey, but would they spend $30 million making sure the resources are there to guarantee stories are collected from all types of Canadian communities and citizens, even if it requires face-time and translation services? Not unless the law says it’s mandatory for everyone’s story to be told, is my guess.
There is far more testimony that is worth hearing, and there is reason to hope that more Committee meetings will be scheduled at some point. But this all-day meeting aired the broad contours of the debate…and sowed the seeds for the way forward.
Forty-eight hours have now passed, and an elegantly simple exit strategy is emerging from all this testimony, an amalgam of the presentation by Don McLeish, who spoke on behalf of the Canadian Statistical Society; the presentation by Ian Mackinnon, Chair of the National Statistics Council (the advisory body to Statistics Canada), posted here by Andrew Jackson the other day; and the sage advice of Ivan Fellegi.
Here are the four planks of a graceful resolution to this standoff, a resolution that has broad support:
1) Maintain the mandatory long-form questionnaire for the 2011 Census cycle
2) Meanwhile test and assess bias in voluntary survey options, using the expertise of both Statistics Canada and the National Statistics Council, before choosing a new approach for the 2016 Census
3) Review and adjust penalties for non compliance (for example, change the Statistics Act so no one goes to jail)
4) Ensure the independence of Statistics Canada, beginning with — as Fellegi has noted repeatedly — an open and transparent process of identifying the successor to Munir Sheikh, with a visibly eminent panel of experts and statisticians on the selection committee.
This is the mantra for anyone talking to Conservative MPs in the days and weeks ahead.
Repeat after me:
Stick with what we have for now, study changes to the status quo so we know what we’re unleashing, add a get-out-of-jail-for-free card, pick the new guy well.
This is doable. This will work. Let us make it so.
Can the provinces fix the Census Fiasco?
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 29th, 2010
Comments: 3
Once again Stephen Harper has charted a course for the nation that drops the ball in the provinces’ and territories’ lap.
Since forming government in 2006, the Harper Conservatives have withdrawn federal presence from social policy, health policy, and climate change while ramping up defence, security and trade. The cut to the GST was less about putting a little more cash in our pockets than letting provinces decide whether they wanted or dared raise the revenue themselves. The census decision is yet another big step in the direction of making the provinces and territories do the heavy lifting when it comes to defining and funding the social and basic infrastructure services Canadians receive.
Their take-no-prisoners approach to the mandatory census long-form questionnaire takes this downloading of responsibility for citizens’ wellbeing one step further. We’ll see how the Premiers publicly respond when they meet at the end of next week. But here’s what they all know: Read more »
Canada’s Productivity Problem
Posted by Andrew Jackson under drummond, productivity.
July 28th, 2010
Comments: 6
Back in June, the TD Economics group released a major report co-authored by Don Drummond: “The Productivity Puzzle. ” It provides a comprehensive overview of major studies and the empirical evidence, and should help spark some critical reflection. Progressive economists should agree with Drummond that productivity growth is vitally important to the growth of living standards over the medium and long terms, and that our recent record - average annual labour productivity growth of just 0.7%, 2000-2009, down from an average of 1.9% over the 1990s - is nothing short of appalling and should spark a major public debate.
Refreshingly, the report begins from recognition of the “puzzle” that many years of neo liberal or market friendly policies - not least trade liberalization and corporate tax cuts - have had no apparent impact upon Canadian business sector labour productivity growth or the Canada - US productivity gap. (Business sector labour productivity is now just 70% of the US level.) “Numerous reforms widely believed to encourage productivity have been implemented over the past twenty years, seemingly to no avail.” The report even accepts that there is something of a case to be made for the argument that the failure is not one of public policy, but a failure of the private sector. “Key elements of Canada’s history and industrial structure may have nurtured a complacent business culture.” (p8.) The report notes (p27) that commodity specialization may generate high incomes but tends to undermine competitive pressures to innovation and high value added activities.
Canada is found to have an especially weak record in terms of innovation, which shows up in very weak multi -factor productivity growth. This is likely in major part a consequence of our inherited industrial structure, which is weak in highly innovative sectors such as advanced machinery and equipment, and increasingly tilted to capital rather than innovation intensive raw material extraction and processing. Drummond cites a study by Andrew Sharpe showing that almost all of the productivity slowdown since 2000 is due to lagging performance by the manufacturing sector. He also details very weak Canadian business investment in advanced technology (machinery and equipment and information and communications technology ) compared to the US. Real capital investment per worker in these areas in recent years has been a good 20% below the US level.Business investment in research and development also lags seriously behind other advanced industrial countries.
This would lead many of us to think about how to reshape our industrial structure through sectoral development policies, but that is not the case here since the focus is, broadly speaking, only on framework policies. The report totally fails to note let alone draw lessons from the rapid industrial development of Asian countries which has been based on a host of strategic economic interventions, or the major role of defence policy and procurement in the US advanced capital goods sector.
Drummond also fails to consider the idea that “sound” macro-economic policy may have had adverse consequences for productivity growth. He argues that price stability and fiscal rectitude should have boosted business confidence, but perhaps operating below capacity has dampened the need for investment in capital and skills. The fact that low unemployment in recent years failed to spark real wage growth, a major shift into more secure forms of employment and greater business investment in skills suggests that we have continued to operate with some slack and that a tighter labour market might have boosted labour productivity growth.
Having rejected by assumption and approach more interventionist micro policy or more expansionary macro policy, Drummond falls back on the usual list of policy prescriptions, albeit with little genuine conviction that there are big bullets to be fired. Thus he calls for further trade and foreign investment liberalization; an end to tax measures which penalize small companies which grow bigger (actually a good point); and cuts to regional EI benefits (a sticks approach as opposed to a more sensible alternative of extending the scope for positive EI supported active job search which could help workers move to growing regions.) In a more positive vein, he calls for higher levels of public infrastructure investment and less waste of the skills of immigrants. Ultimately, he falls back on the need for more research to figure out what goes on in the “black box” of the firm, and why some innovate and add value while others do not.
In short, this is well worth a read, but the rigid frame of economic orthodoxy precludes consideration of some promising policy directions.
Reflections on The Spirit Level
Posted by Marc Lee under capitalism, inequality, progressive economic strategies, rankings, social policy.
July 26th, 2010
Comments: 14
The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better, by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, is an important book. It is not a huge tome, as one might expect from such a broad topic, weighing in at just 265 pages of text (including lots of figures mapping inequality against some health and social statistic, and some clever cartoons). That space, however, offers up a rich synthesis of empirical findings and some theorizing about how unequal societies – largely (except for the poorest countries) irrespective of per capita income – do worse on almost every important health and social indicator we might care about.
But first off, I need to once again question the title. In spite of the gravitas and policy importance of the subject matter, the Spirit Level just sounds kinda hokey, in a way that many people will never pick the book up. I hope I’m wrong about this, having been persuaded to pick it up (at the local library) after being mentioned by a number of people whose opinion I deeply respect. But there is NO discussion of “the spirit level” in the book. I could envision some text that would talk about the end of consumerism and materialism that inevitably leads to a higher form of consciousness (the spirit level) among us humans that reshapes the very foundations of how we think about and design economies – but in fact, I don’t think the word “spirit” appears in the text, even once (though perhaps for the best). So I’m left wondering if some publisher decided to change the title after the manuscript was accepted for publication, or whether the authors thought that the title should hang there to induce deep thoughts among readers.
That quibble aside, at least there is the subtitle, which gives us a very clear statement about what this book is about. Before getting into the hows and whys, it is worth summarizing the breadth of empirical findings, which typically are addressed as within-country inequality for the 50 richest countries in the world, and for the 50 US states, with the occasional time series. Inequality is negatively correlated with trust, women’s status, spending on foreign aid (ch. 4); positively correlated with mental illness and drug use (ch. 5); negatively with life expectancy and infant mortality (ch. 6); positively with obesity (ch. 7); negatively with average math and literacy scores, and positively with high school drop out rates (ch 8); positively with teenage birth rates (ch 9), homicides, children’s experience of conflict, perceptions of how well one would do in a fist fight (ch. 10), and imprisonment rates (ch. 11); and negatively with social mobility (ch. 12).
Putting it together, they create an index of social and health problems, which is positively correlated with inequality. The Nordic countries and Japan almost always appear at the healthy end of the scale, while the USA (by a large margin) is the worst, followed by Portugal and the UK; Canada is middling. The same empirical relationship holds for US states, with new Hampshire, Minnesota, North Dakota and Vermont doing the best; Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama the worst.
The authors consider a number of causality issues and competing explanations, but arrive at one key explanation for why inequality has this effect: social status. They write:
It’s hard to disregard social status because is comes so close to defining our worth and how much we are valued. To do well for yourself or to be successful is almost synonymous with moving up the social ladder. Higher status almost always carries connotations of being better, superior, more successful and more able. … [T]he further up the social ladder you are, the easier it becomes to feel a sense of pride, dignity and self-confidence. … Pride is the pleasure and shame the pain through which we are all socialized, so that we learn, from early childhood onwards, to behave in socially acceptable ways.
… Greater inequality seems to heighten people’s social evaluation anxieties by increasing the importance of social status. … If inequalities are bigger, so that some people seem to count for almost everything, and others for practically nothing, where each of us is placed becomes more important. Greater inequality is likely to be accompanied by increased status competition and increased status anxiety.
… Not only do large inequalities produce all of the problems associated with social differences and the divisive class prejudices which go with them, but, as later chapters show, it also weakens community life, reduces trust, and increases violence. (pp. 40-45)
That inequality should be reduced is inescapable, and polling suggests that people would like this (save for the very richest few percent). This is more than just the right thing to do morally, but is likely to produce a healthier economy and may indeed be a precondition for action on climate change. But because of the linkage to health and social problems, the book argues that reducing inequality would improve quality of life – most notably for the poorest, but due to “gradients” also for the richest – by much more than could be achieved through economic growth. The latter point builds on work on happiness and life satisfaction (Richard Layard’s excellent book, Happiness: Lessons from a New Science, is highly recommended, and he in turn gets the cover quote) that above a minimum amount of income, our happiness is determined by a range of other things like our health, education, the quality of our communities and family relationships.
How a radical reduction in inequality should be achieved is perhaps the weakest part of the book. The authors note that there are different routes, one of which involves large redistributive efforts through taxes, transfers and public services (the Nordic model); another is by achieving greater equity in incomes before taxes and transfers (Japan). Economists of social democratic persuasions have been more enamoured of the Nordic model, and generally make the argument to simply transfer resources to those who need them. I’m up for this, but I have always thought that it would be a superior outcome for the labour market to do more of the heavy lifting. Given the role of social status as stated above, this would seem to make sense, and such moves would be more difficult for a right-wing government to dismantle in a fury of spending cuts. The two strategies, of course, need not be mutually exclusive.
So, in the dying pages of the book, the authors cite greater unionization, reducing corporate power, and empowering the non-profit and cooperative sectors, with a big plug for worker ownership. There is clearly a lot more that could be said, but perhaps the authors figured they had already taken on enough. The point is that, having made the case for greater (though not necessarily perfect) equality, if we were to accept it as a fundamental plank of political strategy and public policy development, and focus our attention on what really would change the nature of the game, the authors will have made a substantial contribution to a better world.
National Statistics Council on the Census
Posted by Andrew Jackson under StatCan.
July 26th, 2010
Comments: 8
The following statement was released this morning. The key point is that the mandatory long form census should remain for 2011, and some changes are proposed moving forward including removing the never-used penalty of prison for non compliance.
Seeking Solutions
The National Statistics Council, the senior, external advisory group appointed by the government of Canada to advise the Chief Statistician, is deeply concerned by the effect of the announced changes to the 2011 Census. We believe that the changes will harm the integrity and quality of the Canadian statistical system. At the same time, the Council recognizes that concerns about intrusiveness and confidentiality should be addressed.
It is urgent we find solutions that protect the quality of the information Canadians depend upon while responding to concerns over the way in which the Census is conducted.
What is at risk?
First, the proposed, voluntary National Household Survey will suffer from significant respondent self-selection bias. Even with substantial efforts to mitigate the inevitable decline in response rates, this will degrade the data upon which much of the Canadian statistical system is based.
The proposed changes will likely result in Statistics Canada’s not being able to publish robust, detailed information for neighbourhoods, towns or rural areas. Much of the analytic work done by municipalities, private firms, health agencies, highway and transportation planners, school boards and large numbers of other groups that depend upon small-area knowledge and data will no longer be possible.
Our second concern is the potential loss of vital benchmark information. The mandatory ‘long form’ means that Statistics Canada has an accurate benchmark for the demographics of populations who are difficult to reach or who are less likely to complete a voluntary survey. This, in turn, means that sampling and weighting strategies for subsequent, voluntary surveys can compensate for differential response rates and produce more reliable information.
The importance of having Census benchmarks available is readily apparent when one considers some of the populations that we know are more difficult to reach – young people making the school-to-work transition, urban Aboriginal populations, the affluent, and new immigrants.
Without solid benchmark information, subsequent surveys and analysis rest on an uncertain foundation. The Bank of Canada cautiously stated that, while they do not use long-form data directly, they feel they will have to evaluate “the impact that any proposed change would have on the reliability and the quality” of economic data they use. The Bank’s statement exemplifies the repercussions the changes may have over the broader Canadian statistical system.
The National Statistics Council also recognizes the concern that Canadians not be overburdened by governments compelling them to respond to onerous or intrusive demands for unnecessary information. On a number of occasions, the National Statistics Council has urged changes and worked with Statistics Canada to reduce such respondent burden. With respect to the Census, the Council has strongly supported changes to data collection methods that enhance privacy such as mail-in and on-line options.
In addition, the Council strongly supports Statistics Canada’s commitment to the complete confidentiality of respondent information and it recognizes the agency’s undisputed success in reaching this goal. The Council shares the Privacy Commissioner’s Office view that Census questions are ‘inherently privacy-invasive’ and that the questions must be kept to what is necessary for good government and that the information gathered must be protected with the appropriate safeguards.
This focus on minimizing intrusiveness and protecting privacy is important to retaining the confidence of Canadians. We are satisfied that Canadians trust Statistics Canada and its procedures and that Canadians provide answers they would be unwilling to provide to a private survey firm. The Council also believes that confidence must be sustained through ongoing actions.
In a matter of a very few weeks at most, it will be impossible to change the 2011 Census or the National Household Survey. Meanwhile, debate over the future course of the Census has become heated without moving towards a resolution that meets both concerns about privacy and intrusiveness, as well as the need to maintain the quality of Canada’s statistical system. What then do we recommend?
The National Statistics Council recommends:
1.That, as part of a formal consultation process beginning with the 2016 Census, Statistics Canada examine each Census question to ensure that it, at a minimum, meets one of the following tests for inclusion in the Census:
a.It is required by legislation or Cabinet direction,
b.It is needed for small-area data uses for which there is no alternative data source,
c.It is needed to create benchmarks for measuring difficult-to-reach groups and ensuring that subsequent surveys or data derived from administrative sources can be sampled or weighted to reflect accurately the overall population,
d.It is needed to assess progress on issues of national importance, for example the economic integration of new immigrants, or
e.It is to be used as a basis for post-censal survey sampling of relatively small or dispersed groups, for example, urban Aboriginals or people with health conditions that limit their activity.
Even if a question met this requirement, it would still face tests of its overall importance to the Canadian statistical system and the needs of data users as weighed against cost and the intrusiveness of the question.
2.The Council is aware that other countries have conducted successful censuses without people having to face the potential of jail as a punishment for not filling out census forms. We, therefore, recommend that the Statistics Act be amended to remove jail sentences as a possible punishment for not filling out the Census. At the same time, the Council recommends that jail continue to be a punishment for those who wilfully break confidentiality provisions.
3.That the Census for 2011 include the long form being used for 20% of the population as the only way, given the very short timeframe, to safeguard the quality of the Canadian statistical system.
4.That the question series on household activities (question 33 in the 2006 long-form Census) be dropped as it was the question that occasioned the largest number of objections among the substantive questions and since it fails to meet any of the five tests outlined in point 1.
The National Statistics Council believes that these steps, taken together, can respect the valid concerns voiced by Canadians about privacy and intrusiveness, while ensuring that the vital information that currently flows from the long-form Census can be maintained and continues to serve Canadians’ needs.
Ian McKinnon,
Chair, The National Statistics Council
Will the Real Stephen Harper Please Stand Up?
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 26th, 2010
Comments: 1
Stephen Harper’s 1991 master’s thesis used census data to make his case about “political business cycles” and he even noted how disruptive changes in methodology could be for long-term analysis in understanding how Canadian political behaviour changed over time.
He ran a model to show the links between variables such as unemployment and changes in government.
The unemployment data is based on the Labour Force Survey in more recent years, but originally came from the decennial census
The census prior to the Labour Force Survey was much longer and “intrusive” with regard to questions on employment than the short form is now, and was mandatory for everyone to answer.
The two-stage questionnaire didn’t come into use until the 1971 census, and up to that point the Census questionnaire became longer and longer. Statistics Canada provides a fascinating description of the history of the Census. Even enumerations back in the 1700s, prior to census-taking, asked highly personal questions regarding the amount of stock in a household, the number of swords and guns, and religious beliefs - highly political given the Protestant/Catholic clashes of that era. On top of everything, given widespread illiteracy, the questionnaire was filled in face-to-face, and likely by people who knew you. We’ve come a long way baby.
I thank Tracey Lauriault of the awesome project datalibre.ca who provide a reference to Harper’s thesis via the french story that ran in cyberpresse on Saturday “Quand Stephen Harper aimait le rencensement”.
We all change over time. It is doubtful that if the Stephen Harper of the 1990s were the one running the show today this whole census fiasco would have occurred.
Carney on Business Investment: You Read It Here First
Posted by Erin Weir under big business, interest rates, investment, monetary policy.
July 24th, 2010
Comments: 3
Nine days ago, I posted about private non-financial corporations accumulating cash rather than investing in Canada. A week later, the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR) noted “the relatively high level of liquidity held by the non-financial corporate sector and weak investment” (page 19).
By my count, the document expresses concern eight separate times about anemic business investment. It acknowledges the point I have been making about capacity utilization, suggesting that business investment “is likely to remain sluggish relative to previous recoveries, owing to high levels of unused industrial capacity” (page 11).
But then the MPR changes tune: “Nevertheless, business investment is expected to increase to levels consistent with previous recoveries, driven by the need to expand capacity and to increase productivity in a more competitive international environment” (page 23). Mark Carney repeated this language in his remarks.
The two statements seem almost contradictory. Don’t the “high levels of unused industrial capacity” obviate “the need to expand capacity”?
The line about productivity and competitiveness is also questionable. Neoclassical economics suggests that business managers always try to maximize profits, with or without international competition. They will make a productivity-enhancing investment if the resultant cost savings are expected to exceed the investment’s cost.
Does the Bank of Canada subscribe to an alternative theory of corporate behaviour? Does it believe that business managers are lazy and try to achieve cost savings only when prompted by international competition? Does it think that productivity is an end unto itself for corporate Canada? Read more »
Tempests in a Libertarian Teapot
Posted by Erin Weir under Blogroll, Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
July 24th, 2010
Comments: 6
The Macdonald-Laurier Institute, which has been leading the charge against mostly unidentified “inter-provincial trade barriers,” is now posting complaints about the “intrusive” census long form.
Are different-sized cream containers in various provinces and having to spend 20 minutes filling out a form once every couple of decades really the worst problems facing libertarians in Canada? If so, it seems that they do not have much to complain about.
Debating Interprovincial Trade
Posted by Erin Weir under Blogroll, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, TILMA, labour market, regulation.
July 24th, 2010
Comments: 2
Over at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Robert Knox has tried to rebut my rebuttal of his C. D. Howe Institute paper. (I am still waiting for a rebuttal of my rebuttal of his more recent Macdonald-Laurier Institute paper.)
Knox’s post sheds light on how his side of the debate sees the issue. But I begin with the least illuminating lines:
Mr. Weir says that proponents of open trade are preoccupied with identifying barriers.
Actually, Mr. Weir is obsessed with lists and examples of barriers.
I have never accused self-styled “proponents of open trade” of being preoccupied with identifying barriers. On the contrary, I have noted their continual failure to identify barriers. I am not obsessed with lists and examples of barriers, but with the lack of such lists or examples.
Naturally, Knox’s post does not provide any. He does not even try to defend his paper’s three examples, which I had debunked. Instead, Knox offers the following:
He [Weir] says that there are no trade barriers between Canadian provinces. Of course there are.
Canada is a federation and provinces have the authority to regulate. Every time governments regulate, including the Federal government, it could and often does interfere with economic activity.
This analysis is correct, but constitutes a wildly broad definition of interprovincial trade barriers. Regulations certainly can “interfere with economic activity.” To determine whether a regulation should be implemented or removed, governments must weigh the positive purpose it serves against any undesirable loss of economic activity.
However, Knox and company aim to short-circuit such cost-benefit analysis. They want a legalistic process to label some provincial regulations as “trade barriers” and strike them down on that basis, regardless of whether a regulation’s benefits exceed its costs.
Canadian courts already have the constitutional authority to strike down genuine provincial trade barriers. But Knox casts his net so wide as to include all manner of provincial regulations that might have a negative side-effect on some economic activity that happens to cross a provincial border.
There are economic arguments against certain regulations. Advocates of deregulation should have to make those arguments, and respond to the counterarguments, rather than pretending that the debate is about interprovincial trade. Read more »
A Business POV and Direct Link to Clement’s Use of Census Long-Form Data
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 23rd, 2010
Comments: 3
A highly regarded economist and business consultant sent me a link to his view of the significance and consequence of the Government’s decision to axe the census long-form questionnaire.
Elegantly concise and to the point, it reads like a cheat sheet for an exam on why Census long-form information is important, from the on-the-ground business and public service delivery POV.
The links in the “JCI Census Notes” section are superb and worth a read.
Check it out.
The kicker is this: “In April 2009, JCI completed the most recent in a series of studies, for Minister Clement’s ministry, Industry Canada, on knowledge-based activities in detailed industries in Canada that was directly reliant on special tabulations from the long-form data”
The Politicization of the Public Service - Warning from a Former Clerk of the Privy Council
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 23rd, 2010
Comments: none
The resignation of Chief Statistician Munir Sheik has far-reaching political consequences, and may be the game-changer in this ongoing census saga.
But it is the extreme conclusion of a far more serious and consequential development - the politicization of the public service.
Read Alex Himelfarb on the topic, a former Clerk of the Privy Council (Canada’s top public servant) and career bureaucrat serving both Conservative and LIberal governments over 30 years.
Essential Reading on the Census
Posted by Andrew Jackson under StatCan.
July 23rd, 2010
Comments: 1
A great piece of political analysis by Paul Saurette of Ottawa U - from the Mark
http://www.themarknews.com/articles/1907-when-smart-parties-make-stupid-decisions?page=1
Inflation: The 1% Menace?
Posted by Erin Weir under StatCan, inflation, media, monetary policy, wages.
July 23rd, 2010
Comments: none
Between May and June, consumer prices decreased in both absolute and seasonally-adjusted terms. As a result, the annual inflation rate fell to 1.0%, about half what it had been at the start of this year.
One province, Manitoba, actually slipped into deflation. The Bank of Canada’s core rate edged down to 1.7%.
Monetary Policy
Inflation’s continuing decline begs the question of why the Bank of Canada raised interest rates again earlier this week. Higher interest rates are supposedly needed to quell inflation, but the inflation menace is essentially nonexistent. Meanwhile, the slowing recovery suggests that the Canadian economy could use all of the stimulus it can get.
Real Wages
Today’s release of June inflation figures allows a comparison with the June wage figures from the Labour Force Survey. It is a battle of weaklings.
Although inflation was anemic, wage growth was even weaker in some provinces. Ontario experienced by far the highest provincial inflation at 1.6%, but its average wage rose only 0.8% over the past year. The Ontario government’s attempt to freeze public-sector compensation at 0% for two years threatens to widen this gap between inflation and pay.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s 1.0% inflation exceeded its 0.8% wage increase. Alberta had just 0.6% inflation, but that was triple its 0.2% wage increase.
UPDATE (July 24): Quoted by Canadian Press
After the Fall - What’s Next for the Census?
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 22nd, 2010
Comments: 9
There aren’t many stories like this one.
You have to go back half a century, to Diefenbaker and Coyne, to find a parallel. Then too, a Prime Minister increasingly viewed as overly controlling insisted on an unworkable policy until the Governor of the Bank of Canada had no choice but to step down, in an attempt to preserve both his and the institution’s integrity.
Yesterday Munir Sheikh, Canada’s Chief Statistician, submitted his resignation to the Prime Minister, to whom he reports. Tony Clement, Minister responsible for Statistics Canada, took over and without missing a beat announced a replacement and the fact that the Conservatives were going to barrel through with the decision to axe the mandatory census long-form questionnaire, evidence be damned.
Today there is a murmur in the land. People are wondering: will the resignation prove to be the Waterloo in the Conservative’s war on information? Or is it another lost battle, pushing us closer to the land of decision-based evidence-making? Read more »
Marc’s Summer Reading
Posted by Marc Lee under climate change, consumers, inequality, progressive economic strategies.
July 22nd, 2010
Comments: 1
With summer comes a lightening of my work load, so I’ve finally found some time to dive into a few interesting books. These are all related to my ongoing research interests (I do have some fiction sitting around waiting for a real holiday, with Barbara Kingsolver’s The Lacuna at the top of the pile):
The Story of Stuff by Annie Leonard
I watched the video along time ago, and even saw a live performance of it at the Oregon Country Fair a couple years ago. Now the book, which puts some much needed meat on the bones of those stick people. Which makes it a compelling popular primer on ecological economics, except while the latter tends to the abstract, Leonard tells the story of everyday Stuff, walking you through the processes of Extraction, Production, Distribution, Consumption and Disposal. She also makes a compelling case that our ecological woes – of which climate change is just one – are systemically rooted in a little thang we call capitalism. But she does not stick to environmental problems, either; she reveals the injustices for workers at all stages in wages, hours and unsafe working conditions so that we can buy a toxic bauble for a dollar.
The Geography of Hope by Chris Turner
I saw Chris Turner speak at a conference last year at Harrison Hot Springs, and even got to chat with him in the hot tub. He was a pretty funny speaker and I committed to picking up his book. But then I assumed I would see it on the shelves in my occasional bookstore browsing, but never saw it anywhere. Which is a shame because this type of book is what we need to shake ourselves out of our fossil fuel addiction. Turner is a fantastic writer, and as a journalist he is able to tell compelling stories from a round-the-world journey in search of real examples of a zero-carbon economy that represents a plausible future – if we can just break the addiction. Working on climate change takes you to some pretty dark places, and this type of book shines some of the light I need to keep going.
The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better, by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett
When I first heard the name The Spirit Level, it met with a roll of my eyes, kind of like when someone says Mother Earth during an environmental debate. But the book kept coming up from some sources I highly trust, and after picking it up I found it has little to do with the last known residence of Carlos Casteneda. In fact, it is the type of synthesis that is so rare these days, covering a wide range of empirical evidence, and weaving it together so nicely that at the end it just seems obvious. The sub-title gives it away: using cross-sectional international comparisons and states within the US (plus the occasional time series), the book makes its way through an undeniable link between higher inequality and adverse social and health outcomes. As someone who has spent a bit of time researching inequality, and advocating for policies to reduce it, I’ve noticed a tendency for researchers to sometimes fall into “statistical pornography”, or displaying data for its shock value (”just look at that growing gap”). What the Spirit Level does is provide the deep context for why that growing gap matters, linking it to real outcomes rather than ethical ideals, filling in the canvas with research on social determinants of health and life satisfaction. I’m pleased to say I got this one out of the library.
In Defense of Food: An Eater’s Manifesto by Michael Pollan
Pollan’s follow up to The Omnivore’s Dilemma revisits some of the critique of the industrialized food system covered in that book, but focuses on our evolving understanding of nutrition. Pollan is a wry writer, and he deftly and humourously argues that the science of “nutritionism” has led us astray because of its reductionist tendencies that miss the big picture of healthy eating in practice, thus leading societies down one food fad after another, plus a lexicon of food-speak that few can relate to. The major lessons seem to be about avoiding the products of the industrial food system, fast foods but also most of the processed foods, especially ones that have health claims emblazoned on the package. Simply put, eat your fruits and veggies, ideally as locally produced as possible, and not too much meat. And slow down, dammit, and enjoy that meal with friends and family.
More Unemployment = More EI
Posted by Erin Weir under Employment Insurance, StatCan, US, labour market, media.
July 22nd, 2010
Comments: 1
For the first time in eight months, the number of Employment Insurance (EI) recipients increased in May. We already knew from the Labour Force Survey that unemployment had increased by just over 8,000 in May. It is good news that EI expanded by the same amount because it implies that those who became unemployed that month received benefits.
However, it is worth emphasizing that this EI expansion reflects worsening unemployment in May as opposed to a policy decision to improve the program. Unfortunately, EI has dropped off the Canadian political agenda.
By contrast, the US Senate just allocated $34 billion for a further extension of unemployment benefits. In some states, jobless Americans can qualify for up to 99 weeks of benefits.
The Government of Canada’s five-week extension of EI benefits, introduced in January 2009, is set to expire in September 2010. Even while this temporary extension remains in effect and even in those regions of Canada with the longest benefits, the maximum duration is 50 weeks.
Although the Canadian economy restored 372,000 jobs over the past year (June 2009 - June 2010), 270,000 more people entered the labour force. As a result, unemployment fell by only 102,000 and 1.5 million Canadians remain officially unemployed.
Persistently high unemployment should prompt the federal government to at least renew the five-week extension of regular EI benefits. It should also reinstate the special EI training benefits that ended in May.
UPDATE (July 24): Quoted by The Hamilton Spectator
The Crisis at Statistics Canada
Posted by Andrew Jackson under StatCan.
July 22nd, 2010
Comments: 7
I am a member of the National Statistics Council, an expert advisory group to Statistics Canada. We meet twice a year as a group with the Chief Statistician and senior Statscan staff. The members are a varied group of expert users of data.
The Chair of the Council, Ian McKinnon, released this statement to the media last night.
STATEMENT ON THE RESIGNATION OF DR. MUNIR SHEIKH
In my role as its Chair, and on behalf of the members of the National Statistics Council, I express our deep regret at the resignation of Munir Sheik as Chief Statistician, and the circumstances which gave rise to it. I would like to express our respect for the dedication and professionalism of Dr. Sheikh and acknowledge the integrity with which he has faced an impossible situation over the past few weeks.
During this period, his scrupulous observance of the limits imposed on him by his obligation to respect the confidentiality of advice he and his agency gave to Cabinet left him unable to defend his professional competence or respond to statements that tended to cast doubts on the professional competence of Statistics Canada. With Dr. Sheikh’s resignation, Statistics Canada and indeed the nation’s statistical system, has lost the committed services of a man of integrity and honour.
In his relatively short period in that role, Mr. Sheikh had sought at every turn to maintain the highest quality and relevance of Canada’s statistical system, while guiding its adaptation to current economic realities.
Ian McKinnon
Chair, The National Statistics Council
Dr Sheikh’s statement does not actually say but makes it very clear that Statistics Canada strongly advised the government against the change, a key point that was obfuscated by Minister Clement (to put it charitably) until last night when he said in e mail that “as I have noted previously, Statistics Canada’s preferred approach would have been to maintain the mandatory long form census.”
Dr. Sheikh’s statement follows:
OTTAWA — There has been considerable discussion in the media regarding the 2011 Census of Population.
There has also been commentary on the advice that Statistics Canada and I gave the government on this subject.
I cannot reveal and comment on this advice because this information is protected under the law. However, the government can make this information public if it so wishes.
I have always honoured my oath and responsibilities as a public servant as well as those specific to the Statistics Act.
I want to take this opportunity to comment on a technical statistical issue which has become the subject of media discussion. This relates to the question of whether a voluntary survey can become a substitute for a mandatory census.
It can not.
Under the circumstances, I have tendered my resignation to the Prime Minister.
I want to thank him for giving me the opportunity of serving him as the Chief Statistician of Canada, heading an agency that is a symbol of pride for our country.
To you, the men and women of Statistics Canada – thank you for giving me your full support and your dedication in serving Canadians. Without your contribution, day in and day out, in producing data of the highest quality, Canada would not have this institution that is our pride.
I also want to thank Canadians. We do remember, every single day, that it is because of you providing us with your information, we can function as a statistical agency. I am attaching an earlier message that I sent to Canadians in this regard.
In closing, I wish the best to my successor. I promise not to comment on how he/she should do the job. I do sincerely hope that my successor’s professionalism will help run this great organization while defending its reputation.
Munir A. Sheikh
Where do we go from here? The mandatory long form census should be re-instated, perhaps accompanied by a consultation process on possible changes. Most importantly, measures need to be taken to secure greater independence of Statscan from the government of the day. This has no formal basis but was strongly upheld by Ivan Fellegi during his long tenure as Chief Statistician, and was upheld by Munir Sheikh yesterday.
Steelworker Census Letter
Posted by Erin Weir under StatCan, manufacturing, unions.
July 21st, 2010
Comments: none
My union’s contribution to the debate follows:
July 21, 2010
Hon. Tony Clement
Minister of Industry
235 Queen Street
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 0H5Dear Minister Clement:
I write to ask you to reverse two recent decisions that threaten to undermine the quality and quantity of data produced by Statistics Canada.
First, making the long-form questionnaire optional in the upcoming census would reduce the reliability of census figures. When response rates differ according to income, education, employment status or other characteristics, the results are biased. While past censuses may not have achieved perfect response rates, an optional long form would make this problem vastly worse.
Jobs Recovery Far From Complete
Posted by Andrew Jackson under labour market.
July 21st, 2010
Comments: 4
One thing that really bugs me about the mainstream media coverage of the economy is the frequently asserted view that the jobs recovery is now almost complete - meaning that total employment has returned to pre recession levels. As one example, the Globe’s coverage of yesterday’s interest rate increase referred to “Canada’s unique position as a rich country that has recovered almost all of the jobs lost during the recession.” Similarly un-nuanced enthusiasm about an almost complete recovery could be heard on CBC TV.
In fact, while the Canadian economy has begun to recover from the “Great Recession” in terms of the level of GDP and overall job growth, unemployment and under-employment still remain well above pre-recession levels. The national unemployment rate in June 2010 was 7.9%, well up from 6.0% two years earlier, and the employment rate of adult men was down 2.5 percentage points from two years earlier. In June 2010, the number of unemployed workers was still more than 300,000 higher than before the recession, and the total number of permanent employees was still down over 300,000 from before the recession. Statistics Canada’s broadest measure of unemployment, which counts labour force dropouts and involuntary part-time workers, stands at 10.6%.
Much of the recovery in jobs has been in low paid, part-time and temporary employment. This shows up in the fact that average hourly wages adjusted for inflation were lower in June 2010 than a year earlier.
As of June 2010, over 300,000 workers ― mainly adult men ― had been out of work for six months or longer.
Canada continues to suffer from a jobs crisis which should be seriously addressed as debate over the next Budget begins just as “Canada’s Economic Action Plan” is about to expire.
Emergency Singalong
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 20th, 2010
Comments: 2
Last week someone sent me an email with a subject line that read “Emergency Singalong”
They had watched the evolution of the census story with dismay and decided it was time to turn things around.
Cleverly rewriting the lyrics to Garry and the Playboy’s 1960s hit Count Me In, a group assembled at his house last Friday. The rest, as they say, is history.
May I present to you John Campey and his Data Hounds
Apparently this has become a hit with a bullet. Just a few minutes ago, John informed me that it was the top story on CTV online news.
Said Mr. Campey “Justin Bieber, eat your heart out!”
Another member of the Census-conscious group, Rick Eagan, weighed in with a more Eeyore-ish tone.
“We should have discussed royalties earlier. Now that it’s taken off this will be a much harder discussion. Statistics say that nine time out of ten, plus or minus one, 80 percent of the time in any group of ten there will be at least one Yoko Ono.”
In other sightings of Census hilarity
Jedi Census
And my favourite thus far
How Stephen Harper Views Statistics Canada and the Census Long Form
If you see any more, post the link in the comments below.
Stephen Harper’s Gamble
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 20th, 2010
Comments: 12
Dr. Bill Stanbury — a regular contributor to the Hill Times, professor emeritus at UBC, economist and self-described as centre-right — has urged me to work with him to compile a list of every organization who has taken a public stand on opposing the government’s decision to ax the census long-form questionnaire, and replace it with a voluntary household survey.
Early on Tuesday July 20, putting our heads together produced a list of 55 organizations or individual subsidiary levels of government. We will add to this list in the next 24 hours.
It occurred to me, in the interests of fair play, we should start collecting the list of organizations that support the goverrment’s decision too.
Alas, the list is, relatively-speaking, short.
Like one.
The Fraser Institute.
Plus some columnists.
Like two.
Lorne Gunther and Ezra Levant, both writing for the National Post.
I’d say “natch”, but one can’t write the Post off, because they have also published two strong (and one very funny) piece from Kelly McParland (online, not print edition) and Tasha Kheirridin (in print) against the government’s position there too.
I don’t think a single national or local newspaper editorial has supported the position, but I could be wrong. Post a comment, let us all know.
The government is gambling on very long odds that they can parlay this into a Tea-Party like mutiny of People vs. The State.
This is possible in the U.S., because there the context of dissent is rooted, today and historically, in an anti-government stance. In Canada, Stephen Harper and his cabinet are the most vocal promoters of this way of thinking, as I’ve mentioned here before.
If you search “census” and “privacy” on the same search line on youtube, you can see where Harper’s team is getting its talking points from. Maybe our government is being advised by ex Bush-government operatchiks, or more slick consultants from the class of perma-mad right-wing nutbars who seem to find such fertile ground in the Land of Freedom.
Harper’s gamble may pay off, but they have disaffected parts of their own core base, including generation-long Conservatives who would never vote Liberal, NDP, Bloc or Green.
So to place all your bargaining chips on the odds that you can create a counter-groundswell seems a tad optimistic.
After all, organizing libertarians and anarchists is a contradiction in terms.
But then again, maybe their “Mavericks of the World Unite” campaign will piss off the mavericks too, and we can put this story to bed.
The Privacy Issue that Harper Should Focus on - Credit Info
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under Role of government, StatCan, big business, consumers, privatization, regulation.
July 20th, 2010
Comments: none
Since Stephen Harper and David Cameron seem to be on the same wavelength, and the UK thinks it can trash census and turn to isources like credit records for its information needs, the story below on privacy, from Alberta, may be of possible interest.
Report of an Investigation into the Security, Collection and Retention of Personal Information
TJX Companies Inc. /Winners Merchant International L.P.
OFFICE OF THE PRIVACY COMMISSIONER OF CANADA AND OFFICE OF THE INFORMATION AND PRIVACY COMMISSIONER OF ALBERTA
The report was posted on September 25, 2007. I can’t recall anything the Harper government has said or done since with respect to the introduction of regulations that could guard against further such mishaps. The great thing about blogging is that I’m sure if it has occurred, someone will advise me in the comments section. Blogging: learning in real time.
Credit to the source: This was brought to my attention by another person following the Canadian debacle. Lest you think I only listen to lefty malcontents, this person is a highly respected economist and businessman, who wishes to remain anonymous.
The Secretary-General Is Not Amused - What the UN thinks about Census
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 20th, 2010
Comments: none
While Canadians tried to talk census sense to their rulers, here’s what the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-Moon, had to say about the importance of the census on Sunday July 11:
“Population data helps leaders and policy-makers to make informed decisions about policies and programmes to reduce poverty and hunger, and advance education, health and gender equality,”
The story goes on to say:
“With dozens of countries carrying out United Nations-supported national censuses this year, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon marked this year’s World Population Day by stressing the importance of gathering information to bolster good governance, transparency and accountability. … He underscored the importance of solid data to effectively respond to humanitarian crises. The theme of this year’s Day is “Everyone counts,” and “to be counted is to become visible,” especially for women and young people, the Secretary-General said.” Read more
World Population Day - Everyone Counts
World Population Day to celebrate census, right to be counted
Thanks to Martha Friendly to bring this to my attention.
Strange Bedfellows Invite Clement to Work With Them Towards Census Solution
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under StatCan.
July 19th, 2010
Comments: none
Today a truly surprising assembly of organizations – definitely not a coalition – made a group request for a meeting with the Minister who has been put in charge of executing the decision to ax the Census long-form questionnaire. Their objective? “We understand that the far-reaching impacts of this decision may not have been fully anticipated and we respectfully request the opportunity to help find a solution that meets the needs of all Canadians.”
Read on to see the full letter.
There is also an article in the online edition of the Hill Times about this request and the significance of the moment.
Stand by. This is what democracy looks like.
Read more »
Jobs and Inflation: The Missing Link
Posted by Erin Weir under interest rates, labour market, media, monetary policy, wages.
July 19th, 2010
Comments: 1
There seems to be a consensus that the Bank of Canada will raise its target interest rate tomorrow. I thought that last month’s rate hike was premature, so I see no reason for another hike this month.
The argument for higher interest rates is that they are needed to ward off future inflation (even though inflation is currently below the Bank of Canada’s target). In particular, many economists have been pointing to strong employment numbers as presaging inflation. But they have not really explained how more jobs would cause higher prices.
One possibility is that more employment means more income and consumer spending, which would drive up prices. However, most goods that Canadians buy are traded on world markets. Since our market is relatively small, we can always import more without appreciably affecting global prices.
For example, if Canadians buy more cars, that would not drive up car prices. Conversely, there are so many more Americans that their car buying could increase car prices and hence inflation. But the US job numbers have been weaker. The American Federal Reserve is certainly not hiking interest rates for fear of inflation.
Of course, some things cannot be imported. Since there is a limited supply of real estate within Canada, more demand for housing can drive up housing prices. However, increased employment is not boosting housing demand. If anything, our real estate market appears to be slowing.
Wages are another possible link between jobs and inflation. The usual story is that a tight labour market leads to higher wages and hence higher prices. Wages are particularly relevant to service prices, which largely reflect the cost of employing Canadian workers to provide services.
However, job creation coming out of a recession has not produced a tight labour market. While Canada added 372,000 jobs over the past year (June 2009 - June 2010), some 270,000 more people joined the labour force, so unemployment fell by only 102,000.
There are still 1.5 million unemployed Canadians who could be hired without bidding up wages. Indeed, despite strong employment growth over the past year, the average hourly wage rose just 1.7%. There is no evidence of a tight labour market generating inflationary wage pressure.
Of course, since monetary policy operates with a lag, a more relevant question might be whether Canada is likely to have a tight labour market a year from now. Imagine that we repeat our blockbuster performance over the next year.
With another 372,000 new jobs and 270,000 more people joining the labour force, 1.4 million Canadians would remain officially unemployed. The national unemployment rate, now 7.9%, would go down to 7.3%. That is still well above the 6% unemployment we had before the crisis.
Canada’s job market is getting better. But it is nowhere near the point where labour shortages and big wage gains could propel inflation.
UPDATE (July 20): Quoted by Canadian Press and The Toronto Star

