Speculation is intense that the unofficial election campaign we have already been experiencing for several months, is about to become official: Ottawa is awash in rumours the writ may be dropped as early as this weekend, setting the stage for months of promises, accusations, and photo-ops.
As always the economy will be the top issue.Â But with recent bad news, Conservative hopes of cashing in on their reputation as â€œthe best economic managersâ€ have suddenly become faint.Â Four straight months of falling real GDP, terrible export and investment numbers, and growing consumer pessimism, make their traditional chest-thumping seem starkly at odds with the painful reality confronted by most Canadians.Â On September 1 we will learn if Canada is actually in an official recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth).Â Even if weâ€™re not, our performance has been perpetually disappointing.
However, this gap between triumphalist rhetoric and grim reality did not suddenly appear.Â In fact, the evidence has been piling up for years â€“ long before the current slowdown â€“ that Canadaâ€™s economic performance under the Harper Conservatives has been uniquely poor.
To further investigate this dissonance, I have worked with my Unifor colleague Jordan Brennan to compile an exhaustive empirical comparison of Canadaâ€™s economic record under the Harper government, and compared that record to previous postwar Prime Ministers.Â The full 64-page study was released today, and is available here.
Hereâ€™s what we did:Â The performance of the economy under each Prime Minister was described on the basis of 16 conventional and commonly-used indicators of economic progress and well-being. These 16 indicators fall into three broad categories, summarized as follows:
Work: Job-creation, employment rate, unemployment rate, labour force participation, youth employment, and job quality.
Production: Real GDP growth (absolute and per capita), business investment, exports, and productivity growth.
Distribution and Debt: Real personal incomes, inequality, federal public services, personal debt, and government debt.
These are not â€œtouchy-feelyâ€ social concerns.Â These are the bread-and-butter indicators of real economic progress.Â All indicators are measured using annual data from 1946 through 2014, obtained from Statistics Canada and other public sources. Together these 16 indicators provide a composite portrait of overall economic performance and stability under each postwar government.
We considered the record of every Prime Minister who served at least a full year in office.Â (We didnâ€™t think that John Turner had much chance, in 77 days, to really affect the countryâ€™s economic direction!)Â We compared changes, annual average rates of growth, or average levels for each variable, from the year each PM came into office, until the year they left.
If you have been swallowing the rhetoric about Conservatives naturally being the â€œbest economic managers,â€ then these results are going to shock you.
For 7 of the 16 indicators, the Harper government ranks last (or tied for last) among the nine postwar Prime Ministers. In 6 more cases, it ranks (or is tied) second-last. Among the remaining 3 indicators, the Harper government never ranks higher than sixth out of nine.
Considering the overall average ranking of each Prime Minister (across all 16 indicators), the Harper government receives an average ranking of 8.05 out of a worst-possible 9.0.Â That is dead last among the nine postwar governments, and by a wide margin â€“ falling well behind the second-worst government, which was the Mulroney Conservative regime of 1984-93.
The very poor economic record of the Harper government cannot be blamed on the fact that Canada experienced a recession in 2008-09. In fact, Canada experienced a total of ten recessions during the 1946-2014 period. Most governments had to grapple with recession at some point during their tenures â€“ and some Prime Ministers had to deal with more than one. Instead, statistical evidence shows that the recovery from the 2008-09 recession has been the weakest (by far) of any Canadian recovery since the Depression. A uniquely weak recovery, not the fact that Canada experienced a recession at all, helps explains the Harper governmentâ€™s poor economic rating.
This statistical review confirms that it is far-fetched to suggest that Canadaâ€™s economy has been well-managed during the Harper governmentâ€™s time in office. To the contrary, there is no other time in Canadaâ€™s postwar economic history in which Canadaâ€™s economy has performed worse than it did under the Harper government.
For Canadians, the legacy of this government has been unemployment, insecurity, and debt.
Click for the full 64-page report, including a complete statistical appendix.
- The Alternative Federal Budget 2017 (March 20th, 2017)
- Would an NDP win mean the end of Canada? (August 14th, 2015)
- Harper has the worst economic record in history (August 10th, 2015)
- ROCHON on 2015 budget: Conservatives making a mockery of working Canadians (April 21st, 2015)
- ROCHON on the upcoming federal budget (April 2015) (April 6th, 2015)