What’s Happening in the Job Market?
There’s a bit of a mystery in the stats Erin and I have been puzzling over.
According to the Labour Force Survey,Â the number of employees in Canada fell by 79,000 in July. According to the Survey of Employment, Earnings and Hours, the number of employees rose by 74,000 in the sameÂ month.Â The methodology of the surveys is quite distinct – the former is a household survey and the latter a survey of employers. But usually, especially of late, they have moved more or less in tandem so a difference this large is puzzling.
Other sources of information for the month don’t help much.Â GDP stagnated in July which suggests little new hiring, but the number of new EI claims fell.
No doubt it will all average out in the end, and the Summer will come to be seen as an end to huge layoffs at least for now. That is suggested by the fact that the LFS registered a modest gain of 38,000 employees in August after the sharp fall in July.
Nonetheless, I still expect we will hit a double digit unemployment rate over the next few months.