TILMA’s Bogus Math
The Conference Board â€œscoredâ€ eleven industries in seven regions on the following arbitrary scale of TILMA’s speculated impact on GDP:
-3 = reduction of more than 10%
-2 = reduction of between 5% and 10%
-1 = reduction of between 0% and 5%
0Â = no change
+1 = increase of between 0% and 5%
+2 = increase of between 5% and 10%
+3 = increase of more than 10%
The Conference Board did not assign a negative score to any industry in any regionÂ (see pages 10 and 36).
Based on a weighted average of these industrial/regional scores, it concludes:
â€œ. . . the overall score for B.C. rounds to 0.76, which is a small positive impact. A score of 0.76 does not translate into a full five per cent impact, but 76 per cent of five percent, or an impact of 3.8 per cent on real GDP. Real GDP (at basic prices) in 2004 in B.C. was $127.9 billion; so the total impact of the agreement is estimated to be 3.8 per cent of total GDP, which equals $4.8 billionâ€ (see page 38).
It seems that the Conference Board has doubled this estimate by fudgingÂ its own scale. A score of â€œ+1â€ does not equal an increase of 5%, but an increase of between 0% and 5%, implyingÂ an average increase of 2.5%. Of course, 76% of 2.5% is 1.9%, which equals $2.4 billion of British Columbia’s 2004 GDP.