(I prepared these as speaking notes for a workshop. They cover a lot of ground covered on this blog but they may be of interest.) The rapid descent of the global economy into what even the International Monetary Fund has begun to call a Depression will see very rapidly rising unemployment in Canada and around the world, likely to the […]
Read moreI just returned from the Steelworker Mecca of Hamilton-Burlington, where the Michael Coren Show is taped. It will be broadcast at 8pm tonight through the Crossroads Television System (CTS) on cable in Ontario and Alberta, and on satellite across Canada. Sarah Blackstock of the Income Security Advocacy Centre and I squared off with two Kevins, one from the Canadian Taxpayers […]
Read moreMartin Wolf of the Financial Times has written a pretty scathing critique of the new US Administation’s overhaul of the TARP program. I am increasingly convinced by Duncan Cameron’s argument that – in the US at least – the best way out is to nationalize the banks, run them as a public utility, and compensate the shareholders only if there […]
Read moreA standard objection to the Buy Canadian policy proposed yesterday by Canada’s largest industrial unions was that Canada enjoys a trade surplus. Such a policy would allegedly prompt foreign retaliation, erasing our current trade surplus and its contribution to aggregate demand in Canada. This morning, Statistics Canada reported that we actually ran a merchandise trade deficit in December, the first […]
Read moreCanadian airlines are squealing that MP Jim Maloway’s proposed “Air passenger bill of rights” would “send airfares soaring and throw flights into chaos.” What strikes me is that American airlines already provide much of what Maloway suggests. They frequently over-book flights, but always offer free flights to induce passengers to volunteer to be bumped. In these cases and other instances […]
Read moreThe heads of Canada’s largest industrial unions just presented the following appeal to use government procurement policy to maintain and create Canadian jobs. UPDATE: It seems that Peggy Nash (from CAW) and I (from USW) will be taking calls about Buy America and Buy Canadian policies on CP24, a Toronto news TV station, between 9pm and 10pm on Wednesday. UPDATE (Feb. […]
Read moreToday’s Statistics Canada release of January employment numbers reveals staggering job losses: Employment fell by 129,000 in January (-0.8%), almost all in full time, pushing the unemployment rate up 0.6 percentage points to 7.2%. This drop in employment exceeds any monthly decline during the previous economic downturns of the 1980s and 1990s. More jobs were lost in January than in […]
Read moreInternational Trade Minister Stockwell Day is claiming credit for an amendment to the US stimulus bill affirming that its Buy America provisions will be “applied in a manner consistent with US obligations under international agreements.” Canada tops the list of countries to which the US has such obligations. However, Day and his colleagues demanded the complete removal of Buy America […]
Read moreIn a column in The Tyee, former BC Socred cabinet minister Will McMartin reviews the ups and downs of BC’s three strikes at balanced budget legislation. Each time this legislation has been repealed, although when the latest BC legislation is “amended” next week it will mark the first time this has been done by the same government and premier that […]
Read moreHousing has been one of the major drivers of the BC economy in recent years. Low interest rates led to rising home prices and a psychology of “must get in before being locked out forever”; leading a housing bubble that had everyone in town swapping jaw dropping stories of bidding wars and outrageous prices paid. The economic driver was not […]
Read moreOver at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, Stephen has posted a nice graph comparing the average projections from the private sector (as compiled by the Parliamentary Budget Officer) and the Bank of Canada with the paths of the last two recessions. He is poking a hole in a story that there is a gap between the more optimistic Bank view and the […]
Read moreI admit to not keeping up with all of the progressive reaction to the new Liberal-Conservative coalition. But among mainstream political pundits, there seem to be two main explanations for Igantieff’s decision to not substantively amend the budget. First, he was unwilling to go through with the progressive coalition or risk an election, so he tried to sound tough without proposing […]
Read moreNow that the federal budget is over, I’ve been girding myself for the Feb 17 BC budget. My concern to date has been bold statements from both parties that they would never run a deficit, and that therefore we were in for a rerun of last Fall’s federal election where all parties kowtowed to the alter of fiscal conservatism. BC’s […]
Read moreAlarmist media reports on “Buy America” rules for steel used in US public infrastructure projects have emphasized the value of Canadian steel exports allegedly threatened, but have largely ignored the similar value of American steel imported by Canada. In fact, in the most recent month for which data is available (November 2008), Canada bought more steel from the US than […]
Read moreCUPE has a set of eleven a dozen really good issue sheets on-line with analysis on different topics about what was in the 2009 Federal Budget, what wasn’t in it, what it means, and what would have been better choices. The topics include: Employment Insurance, Municipal Infrastructure, Privatization, Pensions, the Environment, Aboriginal Issues, Post-secondary Education, Health Care, Early Learning and Childcare, […]
Read moreFigures released by Statistics Canada this morning reveal that Canada’s real GDP dropped by 0.7% in November 2008, its largest monthly decline since a 1.0% drop because of the August 2003 power outage. With the exception of that unique event, November’s decline was the largest since at least February 1997, the oldest month for which precisely comparable figures are available. […]
Read morePEF people are not the only ones who correctly anticipated some of our recent economic and fiscal events. Jamie Galbraith also saw a lot of this coming in his book The Predator State. With no further ado, I’m posting an enthusiastic review of the book by fellow traveler and Sorbonne PhD economics graduate Henry Sader:
Read moreThis is a revised and more complete version of last night’s post: Impact on Jobs and the Economy What We Wanted The most important priority for the Budget was to stop the unemployment rate from rising to at least 8% this year and to double digit levels next year. “Fiscal stimulus†is not the same thing as running a deficit. […]
Read moreMarc Lee predicted a deficit a year ago (in a paper that graciously acknowledged comments from Toby and me.) Our blog was also ahead of the curve on some other aspects of Budget 2009. I flagged the Equalization cuts the morning after the November 2008 Economic Statement, when they received little attention. These cuts have since become a Budget hot potato because […]
Read moreThe more I read Budget 2009, the less stimulus I see. The very first page of text in the Budget Plan commits to “inject fiscal stimulus of 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP)†(page 9). For 2009-10, the Budget introduces new spending and tax cuts worth $18 billion, about 1.2% of GDP (page 217). But it accounts for […]
Read moreHarper “stimulus†budget falls far short  Faced with the prospect of losing their grip on power, the Harper government has made a big show of taking action to address the economic and financial crisis, but it still falls far short of what is needed to revive the economy, create jobs and protect the vulnerable. In particular, the budget fails […]
Read moreIts amazing how much a budget can contain while avoiding addressing the most critical questions of an economic crisis: How are we helping the most vulnerable, particularly those who have lost their jobs? Â With over $2.6 billion in spending on additional EI and retraining programs in 2009, the government has managed to not allow one additional unemployed person to […]
Read moreThe leakiest budget in Canadian history is now in the public domain, and will not lead to the fall of the Harper government. The budget was preceded by numerous press conferences held by Ministers (with the PM uncharacteristically out of sight), leaving some details to be filled in on budget day, largely tax measures, but in the end it featured […]
Read moreJanuary 26, 2009 The Honourable James M. Flaherty Minister of Finance Department of Finance Canada 140 O’Connor Street Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G5 Dear Mr. Flaherty: I write regarding the 2009 federal budget on behalf of the United Steelworkers union, which represents 280,000 men and women working in every sector of Canada’s economy. To address the worst economic crisis since the […]
Read moreI’ve just read an excellent paper “From Financial Crisis to Depression and Deflation” by Hansjorg Herr of the Berlin School of Economics, circulated by the Global Union Research Network (but not yet posted to their web site.) Herr argues that demand deflation is inevitable in a downturn like the one we are in, but this becomes really dangerous for the […]
Read moreWhat a difference a year makes. A year ago anybody who proposed nationalizing the banks in Canada, the United States or the U.K. would probably have been dismissed as a looney lefty. Now widescale nationalization of major banks is being raised as a serious alternative in leading articles in the Economist and the New York Times. An on-line debate of […]
Read moreThe Fraser Institute, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Informetrica, Bank of Montreal, and yours truly square off in today’s Toronto Star (page A17).
Read moreThere was a noteworthy discrepancy in how our two national newspapers covered the $64-billion leak. The secondary headline printed in yesterday’s Globe and Mail began, “Finance Department’s deliberate leak . . .” While the story’s text identifies the leaker only as “a senior government official,” a pull-out quote in the print edition identified him or her as a “Finance Department official.” […]
Read moreI don’t usually read (or cite) Sherry Cooper, chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, but in a recent article she was on the money: Layoffs and reductions in hours worked have been accelerating in recent months and cover firms in virtually every sector of the U.S. economy. The same has been true in Canada, but to a much lesser degree […]
Read moreI watched this movie last night and highly recommend it. I am often struck that criticism of Israeli military operations is more accepted in Israel than in North America. However, the movie won a Golden Globe and was just nominated for an Academy Award, which may add some welcome nuance to the dominant North American perspective.
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