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Elites and the talking heads in the media are arguing about how to respond to Canadaâ€™s soured economic outlook. Who should try to boost the economy, the federal government via fiscal stimulus or the Bank of Canada via monetary policy? But while elites argue amongst themselves, the overriding context is a transfer and concentration of […]
In a recent CBC blog post, Louis-Philippe Rochon assesses the current state of the Canadian economy. The link to the blog post is here. Follow him on Twitter @Lprochon.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank of Canada, budgets, China, Conservative government, deficits, economic crisis, economic growth, employment, exchange rates, federal budget, fiscal policy, global crisis, household debt, IMF, interest rates, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy, recession, stimulus, unemployment.
February 5th, 2015
(The following is something I’ve prepared for the next issue of CUPE’s Economy at Work, a popular economics quarterly publication I produce.) In his annual Economic and Fiscal Update (EFU), finance minister Joe Oliver told Canadians that while the federal government will finally record a surplus next year after seven years of deficits, we canâ€™t […]
This piece was originally published at the Globe and Mail’s online Report on Business feature, EconomyLab. Â There are two reasons why it is difficult to comment on the legacy of a finance minister. 1) It is a tremendously challenging job, anywhere, any time. Stewarding one of the largest economies in the world through a […]
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under budgets, Conservative government, deficits, federalism, fiscal federalism, global crisis, housing, IMF, income distribution, income tax, inequality, macroeconomics, OECD, public infrastructure, Role of government, StatCan, stimulus, taxation, TFSA, World Bank.
March 20th, 2014
1. Heâ€™s Number Two:Â Stephen Poloz was widely acknowledged in economic and political circles as the second-best choice for the top job at the Bank of Canada. So the surprise was not that he was chosen. The surprise was, Why Not Tiff Macklem? Will someone please find out and tell the rest of us? 2. […]
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under Bank of Canada, Conservative government, economic growth, free markets, free trade, G-20, inflation, interest rates, international trade, macroeconomics, monetary policy, Role of government, stimulus, unemployment.
May 3rd, 2013
The IMF’s latest delivery of the World Economic outlook contains an interesting analysis of the current “non” recovery in terms of a divergence between fiscal and monetary policy, the first between restrictive and procyclical in nature and the second being accommodating and reinforcing a financial expansion. As argued here by the IMF economists who worked […]
Four years after Lehman Brothers collapsed, itâ€™s time to take stock of things by asking a stock political question: Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Where you stand on the answer depends on where you sit. Many people, businesses and communities are still struggling to regain the ground they lost […]
Posted by Armine Yalnizyan under development, economic crisis, economic growth, employment, global crisis, income distribution, Role of government, social democracy, stimulus, super-rich, US, young workers.
September 14th, 2012
This morning, Statistics Canada reported zero economic growth in October. While growth had been driven by strong mining and fossil-fuel exportsÂ during the third quarter, Canadians got a lump of coal in October. This Christmas goose egg should come as a wake-up call to economic policymakers. It follows Labour Force Surveys showing two consecutive months of […]
A common refrain among political pundits has been that all of Ontarioâ€™s election platforms are unrealistic given a deteriorating economic outlook. Rather than bemoaning this alleged lack of realism, we should evaluate how each partyâ€™s platform would fare in a downturn. The NDP platform is built on the fiscal framework set out in the 2011 […]
Down south, the Obama administration is in a dangerous game of chicken with Republican congressional leaders, who are cynically holding the US economy hostage in order to impose a radical agenda of spending cuts. Obama has seemingly bought into the rhetoric of cutting debt, rather than focusing on the real US problem of unemployment. Yet, […]
This was posted on the Globe and Mail’s online feature Economy Lab today. My sincere thanks to all the people who have posted on the topic on this site. The Harper government â€™s commitment to further reduce the general corporate income tax rate while the nation struggles with budgetary deficits has been championed by â€“ […]
Here is the trade union statement to the World Economic Forum, which begins today: A New Reality for Workers? Statement of Labour Leaders to the World Economic Forum Davos, Switzerland, 26 â€“ 30 January 2011
Oh, the cynicism of it all. I was just watching the Evan Solomon Power and Politics show on Newsworld (about 5.40pm ) when an ad came up extolling opportunities for re-training under Canada’s Economic Action Plan and referring viewers to the same web site. That’s strange, I thought. Have those programs not expired? I checked […]
Here’s a new take on bringing economic theory to the masses — a rap battle between Keynes and Hayek. What’s amazing about it is the amount of solid (if not plain nerdy) content this video packs into such a short time. It’s fun to watch for sure (very high production values), but you get that […]
Posted by Iglika Ivanova under economic crisis, economic growth, economic literacy, economic thought, fiscal policy, free markets, history of economic thought, industrial policy, inflation, interest rates, investment, labour adjustment, labour market, macroeconomics, media, monetary policy, prices, progressive economic strategies, public sector procurement, recession, Role of government, stimulus, unemployment, wages.
October 12th, 2010
This morning, the Canadian Foundation for Economic Education hosted a Bay Street breakfast meeting with Stockwell Day, President of the Treasury Board of Canada. Jim serves on the Foundationâ€™s Board of Directors, but could not make todayâ€™s session. So, Armine and I ended up having breakfast with Tories at Torys. (Some other participants may not […]
UPDATE (September 1): Quoted in The Toronto Star. Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew modestly in the second quarter, but that modest growth returned GDP to a level not seen since before the economic crisis. Recent Developments: The Second Quarter Canadaâ€™s output expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.5%, which corresponds to an annual rate […]
In the past few weeks some of Canada’s most respected economic authorities, including Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, have voiced concerns over the fragility of the recovery, globally and at home.Â Now Paul Krugman joins that chorus of Cassandras, pointing his finger straight at the wishful thinkers who say Canada’s heavy lifting is done […]
The Mark are running a contribution of mine on the latest job numbers and the continued need for special EI and job creationÂ measures.
This morning, Statistics Canada reported a robust economic expansion in March and hence in the first quarter of 2010. Although Februaryâ€™s growth was revised down to 0.2%, strong growth of 0.6% in both January and March propelled the quarterly total to 1.5%. That figure corresponds to an annual growth rate of 6.1%, more than double […]
Serge Coulombe, an economics professor at the University of Ottawa, has a great op-ed in todayâ€™s Financial Post: The Fraser report looks at the change in the contribution of government expenditures to the GDP growth between the second and the third quarters, and the third and the fourth quarters, of 2009. This approach is problematic […]
When conflict erupts between Conservative politicians and the Fraser Institute, I am inclined to react as Henry Kissinger did to the Iran-Iraq War: â€œItâ€™s too bad they canâ€™t both lose.â€ But in the recent spat over stimulus, it was easy to choose sides. However grudging the Harper governmentâ€™s decision and however inadequate its execution, it […]
The Fraser Institute is winning 6-0, at least in terms of The National Postâ€™s coverage of its flawed study on stimulus. On March 24, The National Post reported this study on its front page while its business section, The Financial Post, ran an op-ed by the studyâ€™s authors. A couple of days later, The National […]
When the global recession hit in late 2008, economic output and employment fell so steeply in such a short period of time that policy-makers were seriously concerned about the possibility of the downturn growing into a global depression. The sense of urgency led to unprecedented levels of multilateral economic coordination, with stimulus spending rolled out […]
Iglika makes several cogent, high-level criticisms of the Fraser Instituteâ€™s “analysis” of how much government stimulus has contributed to Canadaâ€™s economic recovery. However, I think that it is guilty of a far more basic flaw. To determine how much government purchases and investment contributed to economic growth, one would compare the increase in government purchases […]
The media and pundits parsed Mark Carney’s speech today to the Ottawa Economics Association (OEA) every which way to Sunday today and concluded that Carney had effectively signaled the Bank’s intention to raise its target for the overnight interest rate sooner rather than later. But in all the hand wringing about the inevitability of rate […]
My post on this past Mondayâ€™s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release emphasized the disconnect between profits and investment in the corporate sector. As Andrew commented on that post, the public sectorâ€™s contribution to the recovery is also noteworthy. That point seems especially relevant in the wake of a federal budget devoted to continuing previously announced […]
Both employment and unemployment edged down between November and December, reflecting a smaller total labour force. This news raises concern that some jobless workers are leaving the labour force altogether. However, the labour-force decrease was only 9,000, far smaller than the previous monthly increase. Overall employment changed so little because private-sector payrolls stabilized. While stability […]
The national inflation rate jumped to 1.0% in November from 0.1% in October. As Statistics Canada notes, this apparently large increase is “due primarily to gasoline prices.” Specifically, last monthâ€™s gasoline prices are being compared to the depressed gasoline prices of November 2008. Given the changed base of comparison, it is not surprising that the […]
Canadaâ€™s extended summer of deflation ended in October, when the national inflation rate rose to 0.1%. This change reflects a lowered base of comparison: the price of gasoline plummeted between September and October of last year. The return of inflation should not be overstated. Todayâ€™s inflation rate is barely positive and falls short of the […]
Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in August. The decline mainly reflected temporary closures of major oil rigs, mines and mills due to maintenance or labour disputes. This explanation is valid, as far as it goes. However, the broader issue is that more widespread economic growth should be more than offsetting these isolated […]