Canada’s economic context at the time of Election 2011 is one of “precarious recovery”, and overall demand conditions are weakened by a few major factors. Unemployment is still just under 8%, which is good compared to the double-digit unemployment of the early 1990s, but not great compared to the expansions of the late 1990s and 2000s. Too much of the […]
Read moreAll eyes may be on Ottawa when the federal budget is released this afternoon, but it isn’t the only government tabling its budget today.   New Brunswick’s new Conservative government will also be tabling its first budget today–and it’s expected to include austerity spending cuts at the same time that they proceed with further corporate tax cuts.    The following is an […]
Read more(Here’s a piece that will be in the next quarterly Economic Climate for Bargaining publication I produce, also posted on the CUPE website in pdf format.) There’s a widely held myth now accepted by many people—that public spending in Canada has increased steeply and is growing at unaffordable and unsustainable rates. In fact, the opposite is true. The latest figures […]
Read moreAt the five year mark, there is a lot of commentary on the Conservative record. Have they been true to their right-wing economic agenda, or shifted to the centre? I find evidence for the former argument much more convincing. The Conservative fiscal record spans the five full fiscal years, from 2006-07 to 2010-11 (which is now drawing to a close.) […]
Read moreIt is one thing to argue (as the CME did last week) that corporate income tax cuts boost GDP via higher investment and thus generate some offsetting increase in revenues. (See Erin’s post for a good critique.) It is quite another thing for Finance Minister Flaherty to argue that CIT rate cuts generate fully offsetting CIT revenues. Here is what […]
Read moreBack in May when Greece was in the process of getting its “bailout” I kept wondering why it had to be that Greece would accept such harsh conditions when it held an ace up its sleeve. The proposed package of austerity, which would make the economy worse, was only an issue as long as Greece felt it needed to stay […]
Read moreThis looks like a good contribution from Dean Baker. http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/austerity-myth-2010-10.pdf
Read moreThere is a new economics blog in town. http://www.3dpolicy.ca It is put together by former Finance Deputy Minister Scott Clark and former Director of Fiscal Policy, Peter Devries. I disagree with their fiscally very cautious line, but this is highly informed commentary on the numbers – with a major piece on the recent Economic and Fiscal Update – so do […]
Read moreThe CCPA today released a paper I wrote (“Big Train Coming” )as a framing piece for the Alternative Federal Budget and the upcoming federal and provincial debate over the turn to austerity at a time of high unemployment. Here is the media release: “Given the fragile economic recovery and the weak job market, now is not the time for a […]
Read moreThere are some interesting if rather subtle differences between the fiscal situation of the federal government as forecast in the last Budget, and that given to us yesterday in the Update. Not much change to the revenue picture, with 09-10 being a bit better than forecast, and next year being a bit weaker than forecast. Debt charges are a bit […]
Read moreHere’s a new take on bringing economic theory to the masses — a rap battle between Keynes and Hayek. What’s amazing about it is the amount of solid (if not plain nerdy) content this video packs into such a short time. It’s fun to watch for sure (very high production values), but you get that much more out of it […]
Read moreIt would have been interesting to listen in on the discussion of Bay Street economists with Finance Minister Flaherty earlier this week. Not all of the banks have current forecasts on line, and they differ somewhat in terms of detail and relative degree of optimism or pessimism. Nonetheless, it seems clear that growth in 2011 will likely be significantly lower […]
Read moreNeil Reynolds has issued yet another diatribe in the Globe, “A Shameful Spending Spree” He argues that inflation adjusted government spending per person has grown by about 50% over the past 30 years. He uses 1982 as the base year. Was all this inflation-plus spending really necessary? Yes, it includes health costs and education costs but does every man, every […]
Read moreYes, yawn, fiscal federalism is pretty darn dull. But it is also pretty darn important. The division of responsibilities and resources between the feds and the provinces is central to the shape of Canadian fiscal policy overall and to the level and design of a host of jointly financed programs, including health, post secondary education and infrastructure investment. I spent […]
Read moreIn the past few weeks some of Canada’s most respected economic authorities, including Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, have voiced concerns over the fragility of the recovery, globally and at home. Now Paul Krugman joins that chorus of Cassandras, pointing his finger straight at the wishful thinkers who say Canada’s heavy lifting is done when it comes to economic […]
Read moreToday’s Toronto Star features an op-ed by John Cartwright, President of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council. (I once had the chance to hear John speak at a press conference in Toronto and found him to be an oustanding public speaker. But I digress…) In the piece, he argues that “we” (I think he means both the Harper government and the […]
Read moreFurther to my earlier post on the turn to fiscal austerity on the part of the IMF, OECD and G20, it increasingly strikes me that there is a fundamental contradiction between G20 goals going into the Toronto summit. At Pittsburgh, the G20 called for a “Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth.” “We will need to work together as we […]
Read moreIn line with a major shift in thinking at the OECD and the IMF on the most appropriate timing for “exit strategies” from fiscal stimulus, the G20 finance ministers dropped the usual call for continued stimulus through 2010 from their June 5 communique, and highlighted the need for more or less immediate fiscal consolidation. God knows what lies in store […]
Read moreI’m afraid I can’t find the report on the IMF website but this news story indicates IMF support for the new Australian tax on windfall mining profits. The obvious thought, if it’s good there, why not here? The Advertiser (Australia) May 17, 2010 Monday IMF backs super tax on nation’s big miners BYLINE: BEN BUTLER THE INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund has […]
Read moreA substantially revised version of my earlier blog post http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2010/03/01/beware-the-canadian-fiscal-model has been published as a Global Labour Column. It attempts to rebut Paul Martin’s prosletyzing in Europe on the virtues of his fiscal restraint program in the nid to late 1990s. http://column.global-labour-university.org/2010/01/beware-canadian-austerity-model.html
Read moreThe Greek crisis has prompted numerous commentators to remark on the dangers of a monetary union which has no common fiscal policy. From the perspective of euro members, the external value of the euro is threatened by large deficits and growing public debt in the so-called PIIG countries, notably Greece and Portugal. There is no effective mechanism in place to […]
Read morehttp://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/inst/download/promoting.pdf This is quite an interesting and very timely paper from the ILO International Institute for Labour Studies, squarely directed to next week’s meeting of G20 labour ministers. As pressures to cut budget deficits intensify, it argues that job-centered spending measures can in fact reinforce fiscal sustainability while boosting employment. Austerity measures which raise unemployment today can lead to the […]
Read moreI had the opportunity to meet late last week with the OECD Policy Mission to Canada – the folks who write the country reviews. These meetings are usually interesting and useful, though I find the OECD Economics Department to be ultra neo liberal in their orientation. Even so, I was a bit taken aback to read the following in their […]
Read moreEarlier this month the Economist ran a leader (editorial) and longer article asking and then largely answering who should for the costs of the economic crisis (public services and workers of course!). That’s when I wrote the piece that leads the March 2010 issue of the Economic Climate for Bargaining publication that I produce quarterly. (I was in a bit of […]
Read moreBelatedly, two days after the fact, the Globe picked up on Bank of Canada governor Carney’s discussion of the Bank’s model of the world economy (I blogged about that speech here) at a speech to the Ottawa Economics Association (OEA) last Wednesday. The Globe spun the story in an unusual way by suggesting that the Bank and its analysis (using […]
Read moreWhen the global recession hit in late 2008, economic output and employment fell so steeply in such a short period of time that policy-makers were seriously concerned about the possibility of the downturn growing into a global depression. The sense of urgency led to unprecedented levels of multilateral economic coordination, with stimulus spending rolled out worldwide and significant deficits incurred […]
Read moreThe Ottawa Economics Association (OEA) held a conference today and yesterday evening. The usual suspects were in attendance saying the usual things: Mark Carney spoke about the need for China to understand the risks of the “paradox of thrift” (see my post from earlier today) that will be unleashed by fiscal consolidation. Don Drummond sang from the productivity choir book […]
Read moreYesterday, the Fraser Institute published a new report, which argues that the government stimulus did not drive Canadian economic growth in the last two quarters of 2009 and suggests that government spending on infrastructure was useless for the economy. The report earned the scorn of Finance Minister Flaherty, who was quoted in the Vancouver Sun calling the report “poorly done […]
Read moreMy post on this past Monday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release emphasized the disconnect between profits and investment in the corporate sector. As Andrew commented on that post, the public sector’s contribution to the recovery is also noteworthy. That point seems especially relevant in the wake of a federal budget devoted to continuing previously announced stimulus. The right-wing critique from […]
Read moreThe Budget contains no big surprises but is still a big disappointment. Despite the fact that unemployment is and will remain very high, economic stimulus measures effectively end after this year. A few very small new investments in jobs and skills will be made, but they do not amount to even the beginnings of a strategy to build a new […]
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