The Progressive Economics Forum

The Government of Saskatchewan wants nothing to do with a state (read China) corporation takeover of Potash Corp.  The Globe reports:
“The Saskatchewan government signalled Wednesday that it is unlikely to support a takeover of the Saskatoon-based company by a sovereign wealth fund or other state-owned firm from China or other large potash-buying nation. The fear [...]

 
With the US on the brink of a relapse into recession or, at best, a period of very slow growth and rising unemployment, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. After all, it seems to be the only show in town. The conventional wisdom is that there will be no second round of fiscal stimulus [...]

I got this wrong first time round. Krugman commends Nick Rowe over at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative for his spirited views and writing on monetary policy.

Paul Krugman agrees with my view that the bond market is signaling  long term economic stagnation rather than experiencing a bubble - and he is, of course, far more influential and cogent than I.
“But the argument has become even stranger recently, as it has become clear that investors aren’t worried about deficits; they’re worried about [...]

The short answer to that question is that I don’t know. I am not a believer in the infallibility of financial markets and perfect information and all that stuff. But the bond market is surely speaking loud and clear.
As an aside, the media focus excessively on the ups and downs of the stock market. But [...]

Yes, yawn, fiscal federalism is pretty darn dull. But it is also pretty darn important.  The division of responsibilities and resources between the feds and the provinces is central to the shape of Canadian fiscal policy overall and to the level and design of a host of jointly financed programs, including health, post secondary education [...]

Statement issued yesterday:
RESOLVING THE CENSUS DEBATE
Welcoming the Changes Announced on August 11th
The National Statistics Council, the senior, external advisory group appointed by the government of Canada to advise the Chief Statistician, has noted the Government’s announcement that it intends “to remove threats of jail time for persons refusing to fill out the census” and its [...]

They are according to  a couple of  bank economists cited in a prominent story today’s Globe who think the big loss of education jobs in July (down 60,000) is due to a failure by Stats Can to properly calibrate seasonal adjustment  to take account of  supposed recent changes in employment patterns.  They think many education [...]

The Mark are running a contribution of mine on the latest job numbers and the continued need for special EI and job creation  measures.

Gwyn Morgan may have made a lot of money for EnCana shareholders, but I have rarely found his economic commentary in the Report on Business to be very well-informed.
The main point he makes in today’s column “New Economic Order Demands New Attitude” is accurate if familiar - Canada participates in the global economy primarily as [...]

From my colleague CLC Senior Economist Sylvain Schetagne:
The performance of the labour market in July 2010 was catastrophic. The unemployment rate is back up to 8.0%. The number of full-time jobs in Canada decreased very rapidly in July, when 139,000 full-time jobs were eliminated. The number of permanent employees fell by even more, by [...]

I’ve blogged previously on this topic but it is worth revisiting in light of the Census debate.  The gold standard for looking at racial pay gaps is analysis of differences in earnings between Canadian born whites and visible minorities since this excludes differences between immigrants and non immigrants (most importantly country of education and work [...]

While the Canadian economy has begun to recover from the “Great Recession” in terms of the level of GDP and overall job growth, unemployment and under-employment still remain well above pre-recession levels. The national unemployment rate in June 2010 was 7.9%, well up from 6.0% two years earlier. The number of unemployed workers was, at [...]

Back in June, the TD Economics group released a major report co-authored by Don Drummond: “The Productivity Puzzle. ” It provides a comprehensive overview of major studies and the empirical evidence, and should help spark some critical reflection. Progressive economists should agree with Drummond that productivity growth is vitally important to the growth of living [...]

The following statement was released this morning. The key point is that the mandatory long form census should remain for 2011, and some changes are proposed moving forward including removing the never-used penalty of prison for non compliance.
Seeking Solutions
The National Statistics Council, the senior, external advisory group appointed by the government of Canada to advise [...]

A great piece of political analysis by Paul Saurette of Ottawa U  - from the Mark
http://www.themarknews.com/articles/1907-when-smart-parties-make-stupid-decisions?page=1

I am a member of the National Statistics Council, an expert advisory group to Statistics Canada. We meet twice a year as a group with the Chief Statistician and senior Statscan staff. The members are a varied group of expert users of data.
The Chair of the Council, Ian McKinnon,  released this statement to the media [...]

One thing that really bugs me about the mainstream media coverage of the economy is the frequently asserted view that the jobs recovery is now almost complete - meaning that total employment has returned to pre recession levels. As one example, the Globe’s coverage of yesterday’s interest rate increase referred to  “Canada’s unique position as [...]

The Conservatives apparently think that it is deeply intrusive for the state to count your bedrooms through the mandatory long form census.
“Asked to explain why this matters to the core Conservative constituency, one senior Tory strategist said, on background: “It’s all about the nanny state. Why is it mandatory to tell the government how many [...]

The Honourable Tony Clement
Minister of Industry
House of Commons
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 0A6
Dear Minister Clement:
Re: Labour Market Information and the 2011 Long-Form Census Questionnaire
The Canadian Labour Congress (CLC) requests that you, as the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada, revisit your decision to cancel the mandatory long-form census questionnaire. By discontinuing the long-form census and replacing it with a new [...]

I spoke yesterday at a well-attended pre G20 conference in Toronto  organized by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and the Munk Centre at the University of Toronto. My comments as part of a union researchers panel were based on a  short paper I wrote for the Foundation on the need for a new labour market model [...]

This article ‘More pay and more jobs: how Brazil got both’ by Paulo Eduardo de Andrade Baltar outlines how collective bargaining together with progressive government policies in the Lula years have improved the livelihood of many Brazilians.  The minimum wage has risen significantly faster than inflation as have bargained wages, significantly raising [...]

Further to my earlier post on the turn to fiscal austerity on the part of the IMF, OECD and G20, it increasingly strikes me that there is a fundamental contradiction between G20 goals going into the Toronto summit.
At Pittsburgh, the G20 called for a “Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth.”
“We will need [...]

This toughly argued lead article in Bloomberg Business Week on the BP oil leak disaster is a keeper - it sets out a very strong endorsement of the key regulatory role of government in curbing the dangerous excesses of capitalism.
“This is a moment to think big and creatively. As distant as risky drilling rigs off [...]

The CAW have released the preliminary results of  a tracking survey following the fortunes of 2600 auto industry workers laid off in the early days of or even before the Great Recession. The major focus is on the services received at Action Centres providing some access to re-employment and training  opportunities.
Written by Sam Vrankulj of [...]

http://www.canadianlabour.ca/news-room/statements/global-unions-statement-g8g20-ontario-summit-take-action-jobs-sustain-recovery
As G20 Leaders meet in Ontario, it is clear that the economic crisis that has wreaked havoc on the lives and livelihoods of working people is far from over. Not only is the ’global recovery’ fragile and uncertain, but in the Eurozone the financial crisis has evolved into a wave of speculation against major currencies [...]

In line with a major shift in thinking at the OECD and the IMF on the most appropriate timing for “exit strategies” from fiscal stimulus, the G20 finance ministers dropped the usual call for continued stimulus through 2010 from their June 5 communique, and highlighted the need for more or less immediate fiscal consolidation. God [...]

The Canadian Council for International Cooperation (CCIC) - the leading national voice of civil society international development and anti poverty organizations - appear to have lost the two-thirds of their funding which came from CIDA. This is yet another example of the Harper government refusing to fund independent research and advocacy. Over the last while, [...]

Further to my recent post on the last Monetary Policy Report  http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2010/05/11/the-bank-of-canada-and-the-recovery/ I cannot claim to be surprised that the the Bank of Canada has decided to begin to raise interest rates, albeit by an initial quarter point from  extraordinarily low levels. They are also returning to normal overnight money market operations which will tighten [...]

Further to my earlier post on the IRPP pensions conference http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2010/05/12/still-more-on-the-pensions-debate/#comments an excellent (albeit highly complex) power point presentation by Michael Wolfson has recently been posted. It can be found in two parts on the IRPP web site  at http://www.irpp.org/indexe.htm
Wolfson, who now teaches at the University of Ottawa, recently retired from the position of [...]