Main menu:

History of RPE Thought

Posts by Tag

RSS New from the CCPA

  • Kate McInturff's Prebudget Presentation to FINA, 2017 July 30, 2018
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • In loving memory of Kate McInturff July 30, 2018
    On July 27, 2018, CCPA Senior Researcher Kate McInturff passed away. The CCPA mourns the devastating loss of our colleague and friend. Kate will be remembered as a feminist trailblazer in public policy and gender-based research. Our hearts go out to her family. Kate’s colleagues, collaborators, and countless organizations across Canada are stronger because of her […]
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • Debunking myths about proportional representation July 25, 2018
    This fall, British Columbians will get to vote on whether we want a new electoral system for our province. What an incredible opportunity. Between October 22 and November 30, BC voters will be able to vote in a mail-in referendum. The ballot will look something like this: We at the CCPA-BC are big fans of […]
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • Canada’s fossil-fuelled pensions June 22, 2018
    The British Columbia Investment Management Corporation is the steward of BC’s public pensions, but bankrolls companies whose current business models exceed the climate change targets agreed to in the Paris Agreement to which Canada is a signatory. The pensions of over 500,000 British Columbians and assets worth $135 billion are managed by the Corporation—-one of Canada's largest […]
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
  • Imagine a Winnipeg...2018 Alternative Municipal Budget June 18, 2018
    Climate change; stagnant global economic growth; political polarization; growing inequality.  Our city finds itself dealing with all these issues, and more at once. The 2018 Alternative Municipal Budget (AMB) is a community response that shows how the city can deal with all these issues and balance the budget.
    Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
Progressive Bloggers

Meta

Recent Blog Posts

Posts by Author

Recent Blog Comments

The Progressive Economics Forum

Saskatchewan Budget Saved by Falling Loonie

Following last week’s troubling news about potash, the Saskatchewan government released its first-quarter financial report today. The headline seems to be “Oil Keeps Budget in Black”, with a forecast increase in oil revenue more than offsetting a forecast decline in potash and other revenues.

But the forecast West Texas Intermediate price is only up by a couple of dollars since the provincial budget. A larger difference is that the forecast exchange rate has fallen from 99 to 96 US cents.

As shown at the bottom of page 4 (3 of 5 in the PDF), the forecast US-dollar price of oil is up by 2.4% from the budget estimate (i.e. $95.03/$92.84). But the Canadian-dollar price of oil is up by 6.3% (i.e. $80.01/$75.29). This comparison also includes changes in transport costs and/or grade differentials since the Canadian-dollar value is an average wellhead price.

However, the exchange rate’s effect is not limited to oil. The lower loonie has the same positive effect on the Canadian-dollar value of all commodities priced in US dollars.

The forecast-US dollar potash price is down by 5.8% (i.e. 1 – ($372/$395)). But the Canadian-dollar potash price is down by only 2.8% (i.e. 1 – ($636/$654)).

Indeed, the potash comparison purely reflects the three-point shift in the exchange rate. Both prices are mine netbacks, so there is no difference in transport costs. (Although the US price is per KCl tonne and the Canadian price is per K2O tonne, the physical ratio of KCl to K2O has not changed since the budget!)

While Premier Wall blasted federal NDP leader Tom Mulcair for questioning the overvalued loonie, Wall is now reaping the fiscal benefits of a slightly more moderate exchange rate.

I am not holding my breath for Wall to acknowledge that Mulcair had a point, although I note that he has come around to the NDP’s position on the Senate.

Enjoy and share:

Write a comment





Related articles