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The Progressive Economics Forum

Canadian Mining and Manufacturing Stumble

Statistics Canada reported today that the economy shrank in February, driven by declines in resource extraction and manufacturing.

Oil and gas extraction as well as hard-rock mining decreased due to temporary shutdowns. However, the most dramatic decline was in potash production, down 19% due to mine closures in Saskatchewan. The provincial government, which is budgeting a substantial increase in potash revenue for the coming fiscal year, must hope that this slowdown proves to be temporary.

Manufacturing had been a bright spot in the otherwise lacklustre economic news of recent months. There were signs of a nascent recovery driven by the auto sector. But in February, manufacturing declined by 1.2% after five consecutive monthly increases.

There was also a striking revision of previous data on durable-goods manufacturing. Last month’s release had indicated that durable goods expanded by 0.8% in January. This morning’s release changed that figure to a decline of 0.2% while also reporting a further decline of 0.9% in February.

The apparently positive trend in Canadian manufacturing is now in doubt. Weak manufacturing makes Canada’s economy even more dependent on inherently volatile extractive industries.

February’s drop in resource and manufacturing industries was cushioned to some extent by stability in the public sector. That may not be the case in future months as government austerity takes hold.

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Comments

Comment from Paul Tulloch
Time: April 30, 2012, 7:17 am

let’s see now, Spain and the Uk now officially in recession again and the main culprit- austerity. Somebody tell Harper that he can go blind starring into the sun.

The auto sector could be in for a bit of a slow down, seems as though the main driver of car purchases in the USA is more sub- prime financing fueling the spurt in car purchases over he past few months- that is if you want to admit to it.

Economics- is more today about cultural construction than reality. I think it is a time for a massive rebirth in empiricism. Time to put up those numbers- oh right- you need numbers for that, and with a potential 1000 points of light for the homeless man at Statcan, and a census redesign, we are instead heading for a rebirth in mysticism, lore and folk tales.

Time for a recession, I guess. I give it 3 quarters and we will be there, unless some large change in policy direction.

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