Today, the Ontario NDP presented its comprehensive platform costing, including all policies announced during the election campaign.
A popular theme among commentators has been that platform costings are unrealistic given the deteriorating economic outlook. As Andrea Horwath noted, her platform includes significant contingency funds.
It is also cautiously built on the fiscal framework set out in the 2011 provincial budget. By contrast, the Liberal and Conservative platforms assume extra revenue arising from economic growth in excess of Budget 2011 projections.
A further point worth making is that elections should be about policy choices. Opposition parties formulating their own fiscal projections from the ground up would instead produce messy debates about differing economic assumptions and forecasting methodologies.
Voters are better served if parties measure their proposals from the same baseline. Constructing a platform on the last budget’s fiscal framework facilitates an appropriate focus on policy choices.
Fiscal Cost of Ontario Platforms, 2015-16, $ millions
|Corporate Tax Cut||$1,850||$1,850|
|Unrestricted ITCs||$ 215||$ 215|
|Targeted Tax Credits||$ 450||$ 12|
|Small-Business Cut||$ 90||$ 90|
|HST Off Necessities||$1,050||$ 820|
|Other Tax Breaks||$ 215||$2,680|
|Total Tax Reductions||$1,590||$2,382||$5,565|
|Healthcare||$ 422||$ 182|
|Public Transit||$ 424||$ 6|
|Reduce Education Fees||$ 405||$ 486|
|Other Expenditures||$ 511||$ 519||$ 430|
|Total Spending Increase||$1,762||$1,193||$ 430|
|Grand Total Cost||$3,352||$3,575||$5,995|
In fact, New Democrats would increase provincial spending more than they would reduce taxes. They would invest more in public services than the Liberals and Conservatives.
The NDP would strengthen fiscal capacity by reversing corporate tax cuts and by making permanent the current restrictions on HST input tax credits. (The latter’s fiscal significance going forward is well illustrated on page 5 of the NDP’s fiscal framework document.)
Far from jumping on the tax-cutting bandwagon, Ontario New Democrats have staked out a fundamentally different policy direction than Liberals and Conservatives.
- Don’t Privatize ISC (May 16th, 2013)
- Provincial Corporate Taxes: A 12% Floor? (April 23rd, 2013)
- Fairness by design: a framework for tax reform in Canada (February 14th, 2013)
- Effective Corporate Tax Rate Falling (October 18th, 2012)
- Do Corporate Tax Cuts Really Pay For Themselves? (September 13th, 2012)