The Progressive Economics Forum

There seems to be a consensus that the Bank of Canada will raise its target interest rate tomorrow. I thought that last month’s rate hike was premature, so I see no reason for another hike this month. The argument for higher interest rates is that they are needed to ward off future inflation (even though [...]

A few years ago an important study, by Marc Frenette, David Green and Kevin Milligan, Revisiting Recent Trends in Canadian After-Tax Income Inequality Using Census Data, was published by Statscan. It did not get much profile but its implications for the current census debacle are startling. The authors summarize: … [E]xisting data sources may miss [...]

The Globe and Mail has allowed their poll about Census “intrusiveness” to stand for the third day. By 10 a.m. on Sunday over 32,000 people had registered their vote with the newspaper. Undoubtedly this is some kind of record for the daily Globe poll, which got 222 votes for the previous one. The question is [...]

Jeffrey Simpson’s column yesterday nailed it. There is only one reason this Census situation is so senselessly white-hot: the government’s position. Its radical ideology and stunning stubbornness have raised the stakes alarmingly high. There must be plenty of Conservatives who are recoiling at the shenanigans of these so-called Conservatives. Every time Tony Clement and the [...]

Yesterday a CCPA board member alerted my Exec Director that the Globe and Mail poll for the day was on the Census, noting that, very early in the day, the poll was running 2 votes yes for every vote no. The polling question: Do you think the long-form census questionnaire is an intrusion on the [...]

I was wondering where our fellow researchers and analysts stood on this topic. They were unusually silent, even though I had invited them to participate in a group process requesting a meeting with the Minister and PM, a group which, by the way, seemed to cross all boundaries and divides. I stand corrected. http://www.canada.com/Fraser+Institute+dismisses+need+mandatory+long+form+census/3287248/story.html Quite [...]

The Conservatives apparently think that it is deeply intrusive for the state to count your bedrooms through the mandatory long form census. “Asked to explain why this matters to the core Conservative constituency, one senior Tory strategist said, on background: “It’s all about the nanny state. Why is it mandatory to tell the government how [...]

Jewish, Evangelical groups oppose census change http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20100715/census-backlash-100715/ And this just in: Stephen’s cat Cheddar opposes the changes too. He’s cheesed! A colleague notes:”If you have the Jews, the Evangelicals, the provinces, growing parts of the business lobby, the academics, Quebec, the City of Calgary, the Community Foundations, the United Ways, the CLC, etc, there’s not [...]

SHEESH! I’ve never seen anything like this, have you? My fave – Kelly McParland’s Full Comment, at the bottom. Hilarious and right on the money. THURSDAY CLIPPINGS “NEWS HOUR FINAL” Global BC and Global Ontario Broadcast Date: Thursday July 15 2010 The Harper government says it’s making changes to the census based on widespread privacy [...]

There has been a persistent drumbeat in the American business press about corporations accumulating cash. The argument is that, while corporations are making solid profits now, they are not investing in the US for fear of anti-business policies in the future. Obama has allegedly spooked corporate America into hoarding cash rather than investing. To test [...]

The Honourable Tony Clement Minister of Industry House of Commons Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A6 Dear Minister Clement: Re: Labour Market Information and the 2011 Long-Form Census Questionnaire The Canadian Labour Congress (CLC) requests that you, as the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada, revisit your decision to cancel the mandatory long-form census questionnaire. By discontinuing the [...]

Today’s Globe and Mail features an article about the University of Toronto’s plan to turn “to the private sector to solve their campus housing problems” for students.  In particular, the article refers to a plan whereby the U of T would become “the first university in Canada to erect a large tower offsite with private [...]

Whenever the stock market falls, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow reliably blames the Obama administration’s allegedly anti-business policies. But when the market was rising on Obama’s watch, Kudlow generally did not talk about it. On tonight’s show, he took a different tack. He repeatedly asserted that the market has recently rallied not only on strong corporate profits, but also [...]

The BC government has released its final estimates of the cost of staging the 2010 Winter Games, highlighting the problems this government has with telling the truth (other examples include the 2009 pre-election fudge-it budget, and the HST). The Tyee reports: British Columbia’s government spent $325 million more on the 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics [...]

Under the “we told you so” category, I am filing the BC public accounts for 2009/10. The province closed the year with a deficit of $1.8 billion. As Will McMartin comments in The Tyee: … B.C.’s public accounts for the fiscal year 2009/2010 conclusively prove that the pre-election fiscal plan foisted on British Columbians by [...]

The front page of today’s Globe and Mail (Ontario Edition) proclaims, “Supercorp is dead.” The story goes on to note, “many government insiders have suggested that opponents of a potential deal got too much of a head start on framing the issue.” Indeed, this blog got a head start framing the issue back in December, [...]

On a weekend getaway to Washington state, I was alarmed at how much cheaper gas prices are south of the border. Typically, we paid $3 per gallon, whereas the price in Vancouver upon our return was $1.16 per litre, which is $4.39 per gallon (with the exchange rate roughly parity over the weekend). This is [...]

Here’s the media round-up from over the weekend and today’s press. You will note almost all the stories are against the Harper decision to cut the Census long-form questionnaire. However the push-back-in-print has begun. Clark’s piece from the Province [BC] is an ode to libertarianism, and Ditchburn’s story for CP, “Census consensus among Conservatives”, offers [...]

The notion that tariffs caused the Great Depression has been repeatedly invoked in opposition to allegedly protectionist policies and to press ahead with deregulatory “free trade” deals. Also, the current collapse of international trade is sometimes cited to suggest a rising tide of protectionism today. Yesterday, Paul Krugman had an excellent post debunking the underlying [...]

Today’s Toronto Star features an op-ed by John Cartwright, President of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council. (I once had the chance to hear John speak at a press conference in Toronto and found him to be an oustanding public speaker.  But I digress…) In the piece, he argues that “we” (I think he means both [...]

From strategies on austerity to shutting down public discourse, Prime Minister Harper seems to have found a new BFF at the G8 meetings. David Cameron’s new tough-as-nails coalition government is planning to scrap the Census in the U.K., which has been taken every 10 years for the past 200 years.  It is viewed as “expensive [...]

The sound of backlash to the government’s decision on cutting the Census long-form questionnaire continues to rumble across the country. Tuesday’s Globe and Mail published a story on the topic as well as a column by Andre Picard which was drawn primarily from the open letter on this blog. The next day the sound of [...]

This morning, Statistics Canada reported that employment jumped by an incredible 93,200 in June. But the total number of hours worked actually declined. In effect, less work was divided up between more workers. (By contrast, a similar employment jump in April corresponded to a large increase in hours worked.) Less Unemployment: A Central Canadian Story [...]

The former Chief Statistician, Ivan Fellegi, who served Canada for 51 years, cannot identify any census in any country that is voluntary.  From time immemorial, such is the nature of Census taking. Thus far there are only two people on public record in Canada taking a public stand against the Census and it is not [...]

As BC and Ontario have now started paying the HST at the till, many people may be wondering when exactly can we expect to see those jobs postings opening up. This is a good question. According to analysis commissioned by the BC government from economist Jack Mintz, titled British Columbia’s Harmonized Sales Tax: A Giant [...]

With all of the attention focused on the HST implementation on July 1, most people seemed to miss the next increment of that other much-hated tax, BC’s carbon tax. As of July 1, the carbon tax is now $20 per tonne of CO2, or about 4.6 cents on a litre of gasoline. And like any [...]

At the end of May in Quebec City at the annual Canadian Economics Association conference, the PEF awarded the second John Kenneth Galbraith Prize in Economics to John Loxley. Below is the full text of John’s Galbraith Lecture (pdf version with proper footnotes and formatting here). Congrats again to John for a lifetime of amazing [...]

If you care about the quality of data that helps us do our analysis, here is a small step you can take to help reverse the Statistics Canada/Government of Canada’s decision to eliminate the Census long form.

I recently had the pleasure of making a couple of presentations on public finances in Alberta. In February, I spoke at the “Remaking Alberta” conference in Edmonton. This past week, I served on an Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) panel in Calgary with Todd Hirsch from ATB Financial and Roger Gibbins from the Canada West [...]

A recent letter from economists nicely summarized the two main theoretical arguments in favour of the HST: “Businesses, large and small, will face lower administrative costs from complying with one sales tax system instead of two. Lower business costs, especially on capital equipment, will encourage investment and economic activity.” Both arguments make sense in a [...]